The case for running more trains

The consequences of the fuel crisis are starting to rear its ugly head.

Today, there are plenty of gaps in the transport system that are served by the private sector. But these are increasingly facing challenges due to the rising labour costs, further compounded by rising fuel prices. As this “shadow” transport system increasingly begins to shrink, what must fill the gap?

[embed]Seven thousand Much ado about school bus services.medium.com

As I’ve explored before, the solution has to be a modal shift to railways. Some may want to start capacity moral panics, but the real growth for our rail system will be in the off peak period, especially the weekends. And also in newer sections of rail lines, where network reform can be pursued to make the most out of new projects.

It’s a worthy investment to be made especially as plans are made to further develop Singapore; and especially as the billions of dollars spent to improve rail reliability must improve outcomes. As we’ve all learnt in the past year, MKBF is not it.

[embed]Outcomes, outcomes, outcomes I think people would be a lot less angry if we could see that things are, indeed, happening.medium.com

And to do so, all we need is a simple mindset change.

A supply failure

Most immediately, there has not been a response to legislative changes that now place more pressure on our public transport system. COEs aside, of course, where a larger population has to fight over the same car quota. But that’s another story, for now.

Migrant domestic workers are now entitled to a monthly rest day since 2023 —a legislative change made three years ago. And on their off days, plenty of them go to places like City Hall and Paya Lebar. The public transport system, though, has not adjusted to this reality.

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In the wake of the Little India riots of 2013, the LTA built the Little India Bus Terminal, a facility meant to restore order to the Little India private bus shuttles to migrant worker dormitories. This facility is only used once a week and otherwise remains closed; is that really the best use of land in land-scarce Singapore? Probably not, seeing as how SportSG has now moved in to turn part of the facility into pickleball courts.

Photo by me

The current energy crisis and the fall of shadow transport systems raises the question if these are still necessary. The alternative is that they can run extra MRT trains across the network that migrant workers can also use, allowing private shuttles, or even public buses, to just close the last mile from MRT stations to the worker dormitories.

Not doing this, and maintaining that Minister Khaw Boon Wan’s off-peak service reductions are still necessary to avoid “over-maintenance” is why people still believe that the rail system is crowded and over-capacity.

It’s not. It’s just about whether they want to.

Everyone benefits

There are also some quick quality of life wins to be had. More trains means more people can get around faster. Our rail system can also be made more inclusive. How?

With more and less crowded trains, families can have more peace of mind to use the train system. It can already be a handful taking care of young children. And when most commuters’ experience with the rail system is in peak hours, they would be forgiven for thinking that the kind of giant prams one can see in kid-centric places, just won’t fit. Of course, things are already being done here; new stations will feature baby changing rooms and family restrooms. This is plenty I see of in Kuala Lumpur, where a ride on the MRT to central KL can be family events; because the alternative is being stuck in a car for 2 hours one way.

By giving more families the confidence to travel as a family on the train, we can reduce the reliance on the roads. Arguments over how multipurpose spaces on buses should be used, can be decreased. And the main argument to get a car is also reduced, taking some political pressure off from rising COE prices. Especially when Category A is once again pricier than Category B; likely increasing the calls for reform, and quickly.

[embed]Cat A COE price hits $123,010, beats Cat B Singapore's Cat A COE price surged to $123,010, exceeding Cat B for the second time in two months, impacting…www.straitstimes.com

More trips also offer more seats, hopefully making the elderly less afraid of train travel. Many senior citizens continue to travel by bus and can be some of the loudest voices against network reform. Recent efforts to make our rail system more inclusive for the aged, such as additional lifts and benches, and slower escalators, must pay off. And perhaps running more trains, to provide more seats, may be the final piece of the puzzle.

Finally, the most direct reason to run more trains is to shorten waiting times. People pay so much attention to the reliability of bus travel information (as we saw during the buspocalypse) because they build their lives around the schedule. With trains, though, it’s a matter of luck. You show up at the station and you could have to wait up to 5 minutes. And if you have to change trains, that 5 minute wait could cause you to miss another train down the road.

At an extreme case, it all adds up, especially when making long-distance connections. By numbers, the train ride from Bukit Panjang to Changi Airport is only an hour actually spent on the train. But with 6-minute early morning service, and 12-minute service on the Changi Airport branch, it can easily become 30% longer. Live data can help, but it’s of cold comfort when you know you’re not going to make that train and you’ve got to wait for the next one.

The war on bus riders

How do we even pay for all this?

The train companies are still for-profit entities, and won’t do it out of the goodness of their hearts. While there’s the case for less crowded trains, the operation must still balance out somehow. Even if the bulk of rail operations and maintenance costs come from infrastructure upkeep — especially with how over-engineered things are here, it may actually be very cheap to add more service, especially when things like regenerative braking and “Green CBTC” allow running more trains without meaningfully increasing energy consumption and other costs.

[embed]The energy crisis and public transport The commercial scale of public transport helps shield us from energy crises. But that may not be enough.medium.com

A far cry from buses, where people cry “public transport is a public service” and use bus contracting to justify their personal expectations that there should be bus-only connectivity to link everywhere to everywhere, in the hopes of providing the same kind of quality of life as if they owned a car.

But that’s no longer possible. Between SMRT Buses offering $30,000 sign-on bonuses to attract bus captain recruits, and diesel prices close to doubling in the last two months and now by far the most expensive fuel in Singapore, the cost of operating buses — both public and private — will only go up.

source motorist.sg

Private operators are also affected. Premium bus operators may be forced to exit the market, especially once they start bearing the full brunt of the increase in fuel costs —which as we can see, is far more than the 13% support given by the government. So what happens when many of the “one-man operations” close down, when their elderly operators choose to cut their losses and retire?

[embed]Government to cover 13% of fare revenues for school bus, care transport operators amid fuel cost… With the support, transport operators are expected to keep fares stable over the three-month period from April to June.www.channelnewsasia.com

The going rate for Sharetransport routes are already in the $6 range. At an extreme case, a trip from Tampines to Mapletree Business Park already costs $7.50 a pop. It wouldn’t be surprising if the current crisis saw the going rate shoot up to $8 or more.

Of course, rail isn’t standing still. Those folks going to Mapletree? There will be a much shorter rail route to Labrador Park station from the east when CCL Stage 6 opens in a few months. Something can also be done in places like Jurong and Tuas, where many worker transport services still consolidate around existing hubs like Jurong East and Boon Lay.

Perhaps additional support can be provided for last-mile transport in the Tuas area that leave from Tuas Extension stations, instead of Jurong East or Boon Lay. And demand-responsive transport services can be provided in the off peak to link areas around Tuas to the rail network; at least while the Tuas South Extension isn’t being built.

[embed]On gateways The prime complaint about the JRL is how it supposedly makes Singapore’s busiest MRT station even busier. I don’t think…medium.com

Organized demand

There is more the government can do to support mode shift.

It’s fair to say that running schools according to a free market model isn’t working, and we’re experiencing market failure. Plenty has been written about how people rue the loss of traditional canteen stallholders, whilst the reality is that stallholders find it increasingly hard to sustain their businesses. These force some schools to move towards central kitchen arrangements where food is catered for students.

The same can be said about transport. It’s not just daily commuter students who suffer from school bus fare hikes, even if there are parents now in a position where they just have to teach their kids to take the train.

The arrangements under which schools engage private bus operators to provide bus trips for field trips and other events outside school is also increasingly becoming unsustainable — and if schools stop planning for such trips because of the cost, things only get worse.

[embed]*MOE asks schools to consider bus fare hike requests *Learn how the Ministry of Education is advising schools to consider bus fare hike requests due to rising fuel costs for external activities. Read more at straitstimes.com. www.straitstimes.com

On Gebiz, it’s already common to see each school having to run its own procurement for transport services. It raises the question about how well such contracts can continue to operate, especially as many school bus operators already do factory buses and Premium service contracts. Sure, MOE could renegotiate contracts, or find a way to offer some guaranteed income, but then where does the flexibility go?

source Gebiz

There’s a better way. In fact, the Education Ministry already does this. Some schools close to train stations on the North-South, East-West, Circle, and Downtown lines already send their students to the NE Shows at NS Square by train. And most infamously, 12 years ago, ACS (Independent) chartered extra Circle Line trains to take their students to the Sports Hub.

[embed]*10 burning questions SMRT sort of answered about why they allowed ACS(I) to charter their trains *They also kind of admitted it is not the first time they did not seek LTA's permission to charter their trains. mothership.sg

Why not make it permanent? BART in the San Francisco Bay Area has a program where schools can buy tickets in bulk to take their students by BART. And Taipei Metro also offers “group” tickets that can be used for similar purposes.

[embed]Student Group Sales Who's eligible? Enrolled students of elementary, middle, and high schools located in Alameda, Contra Costa, San…www.bart.gov

If anything, this could also increase social mixing as well. Everyone has a story of that one rich classmate who gets chauffeured everywhere. Why not normalize taking public transport, as a life lesson as well, to increase social mixing, especially among the high-SES schools?

It’s not just about building

Driving public transport use is not just about building infrastructure and calling it a day. Connectivity must be improved to newer lines to drive their growth, but that’s not all that must be outcomes. Service outcomes too, not just making trains faster, but that there must be more of them.

This is something European countries seem to get. When I was in London, the Victoria Line was running every 2 minutes. On a Saturday!

Saturday evening in London

To be fair, they seem to know why this matters. Back in Singapore not so long ago, the Circle line service was significantly redesigned to focus resources on the much busier northern half, by introducing train trips that travel only between Paya Lebar and Pasir Panjang. This allowed them to increase frequencies and run more trains in the area, even if they were still limited by not having enough trains; at least until the C851E trains entered service earlier this month.

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I would think such an initiative needs to go bigger, to reassess our transport system at large, and ask how our rail system can best serve even more people. The current situation demands no less.

And the answer seems obvious.

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