putin is already losing. And he will lose definitively precisely because his strategy is flawed — Viatrovych

putin cannot win the war against the Ukrainians. Not because of a lack of resources — but because of the very goal he has set for himself: to eliminate Ukrainians as a separate nation. Part of them — to destroy physically, the other part — to force to abandon their own identity for the sake of survival. Such a goal is evident from his statements and his actions. And it is an unachievable strategy, Ukrainian historian Volodymyr Viatrovych writes.

In effect, putin is trying to continue the mission of one of his inspirations — Stalin. Stalin also clearly understood that the existence of Ukrainians as a nation posed a threat to the empire. But even Stalin failed to achieve this goal — despite far more favorable conditions: most Ukrainians were already within the borders of his state, which was capable of mass terror. Most, but not all. Some remained beyond his reach.

And the attempt to “finish the job” in the territories annexed after 1939 encountered persistent, long-lasting, and well-organized resistance. It was suppressed — but at the cost of an exhaustion that undermined the empire. The empire began to crack immediately after Stalin’s death. Ultimately, the memory of that resistance became one of the factors of its collapse.

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putin does not even have such capabilities. He does not control the territories where the majority of Ukrainians live. Therefore, he can only implement his strategy on occupied lands — and he is doing so. This is terrifying and painful for us, but it is not enough for him.

Moreover — the very threat of annihilation mobilizes the majority of Ukrainians, awakens those who had remained indifferent to their own identity. It adds strength, consolidates society, and makes the realization of his plan even less likely. This threat also destroys the “soft power” tools that russia had successfully used for years before the start of the war in 2014 to promote Russification.

Therefore, putin is already losing.

And he will lose definitively precisely because his strategy is flawed, built on an unrealistic goal. Such strategies always lead to defeat. Perhaps not as quickly as we would like. But — inevitably. And no tactical changes (of which there have been few) will change this. So hold on, invest in the common cause of victory, and we will witness the collapse of the empire.