Cuba’s Crisis Deepens as Shortages Persist and Deaths Go Uncounted

Cuba’s nationwide shortages of fuel, food and electricity have entered their fifth month with no sign of relief, according to residents, local health workers and international observers. Power cuts lasting more than twenty hours a day have disrupted transport, food storage and medical care across the island. Trash continues to accumulate in major cities, and state media has not provided updated figures on mortality linked to hunger or preventable illness.

No government — including Cuba’s own — has announced a plan to stabilize the supply of fuel or food. International aid remains limited. The United Nations reports a funding gap of $68 million for humanitarian assistance to Cuba, and no major donor has stepped forward to close it. Mexico sent 814 tonnes of food in May, an amount equivalent to roughly 74 grams per person. Russia delivered two oil shipments earlier this year but has not repeated them.

Local doctors say the shortages have created conditions in which deaths are difficult to track. With hospitals operating without reliable electricity and many ambulances immobilized by lack of diesel, patients often remain at home. Health workers in Havana and Santiago de Cuba say elderly people, women and children are among the most vulnerable, but no official data has been released on how many have died from malnutrition, dehydration or untreated infections.

Cuba’s government has acknowledged the severity of the fuel crisis but has not provided updated statistics on mortality or hospital capacity. Independent monitoring is limited. Families often bury relatives without formal medical certification, according to residents interviewed by phone.

The United States has maintained pressure on the island through sanctions and an oil blockade that began in January. Executive Order 14404, issued earlier this year, expanded restrictions on foreign companies dealing with Cuba’s military‑run conglomerate GAESA. The measures have contributed to a sharp reduction in fuel imports, according to analysts and shipping data.

Despite the public confrontation, senior officials from both countries have held quiet discussions. In February, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met privately with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, grandson of former president Raúl Castro, in Saint Kitts and Nevis. In May, CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Havana for meetings with Cuban intelligence officials. Neither government has disclosed details of the talks.

The United States has not announced large‑scale humanitarian assistance. The $9 million it has provided through the Catholic Church is earmarked for civil society support rather than food distribution. Former U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said in a May interview that Washington’s primary concern is a mass migration event similar to the 1980 Mariel boatlift.

Cuba’s population has declined sharply in recent years. Between 2022 and 2024, an estimated 500,000 to one million people left the island, according to regional migration data. Demographers say the exodus has accelerated during the current crisis, though precise figures are unavailable.

Environmental pressures in Florida add another dimension. A study by Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution estimates that sargassum blooms could cost Florida up to $13.5 billion in 2026. Northern Cuba, less exposed to the algae, has drawn interest from investors seeking alternatives, according to real estate analysts in Miami.

Analysts say the two governments appear to be managing the crisis rather than resolving it. The shortages persist. Aid remains limited. Negotiations continue out of public view. And the number of Cubans dying from hunger, malnutrition and untreated illness remains unknown.

By Bona Nova reporting from Miami, Havana, and Mexico City.