The Fed Holds Still

Matt Insley ~ Wiretap 03.18.26

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to keep interest rates steady.

To be fair, few people thought the Fed would make a move. As of 9:30 a.m. ET, the CME FedWatch tool showed traders were seeing a 99% chance of no action.

The 1% were betting that the FOMC would raise interest rates — likely due to today’s higher-than-expected inflation rate and future inflated prices due to the war with Iran.

President Donald Trump, of course, has been hounding the Federal Reserve to enact emergency rate cuts due to the war.

“Somebody gets fired if that 1% chance hits,” observed Alan Knuckman.

Sean Ring quickly agreed. “It would massively dent the president‘s authority,” he said.

But today’s inflation data doesn’t take into account how much prices have risen since the war started.

“I noticed this in my own humble experience,” says Bryon King. “Gas stations, grocery stores, Home Depot — all up before Iran and $100+ oil.”

According to Alan’s charts, if oil goes above $100 again, it will keep going to $120.

So Wall Street could be in for a very rough couple of weeks…

And stock market tanked yesterday, today not looking any better. Everyone of my options are down, except the one that is supposed to go down. Never fails.