The Night Is Always Darkest Before the Dawn

Bitcoin ETFs hit record $6.4B outflows as Wall Street capitulated

AI-Generated Image

Do not be fooled. The night is always darkest before the dawn.

Bitcoin is down, sentiment is shaky, and bears are getting loud again. But underneath all this fear, massive developments are happening behind the scenes.

Wall Street Just Capitulated

US Bitcoin ETFs hit record outflows, on track for the worst month ever since launch. This is the worst 30-day outflow period in ETF history, a record $6.4 billion in net outflows.

These are institutional-class buyers through BlackRock or Fidelity. Today, they finally capitulated.

As Wall Street whales sell, other on-chain whales are buying. Whales absorbing all the Bitcoin sell orders from retail and Wall Street investors.

So Wall Street begged for a Bitcoin ETF for years, then used it to panic sell the bottom. Remind me who the smart money is again.

Why Everyone Is Distracted

Even billionaire Felipe Laffont, very bullish through the years, today says:

“I don’t know what to think about Bitcoin anymore. I’m more interested in AI, space, and IPOs.”

This is how a lot of ETF sellers are thinking.

AI absorbed a lot of the risk capital. Stable coins became the new meta after the Genius Act passed. He wonders if Bitcoin was a little bit the off-ramp for everybody that wants something more speculative.

But these are all short-term effects.

The Bottom Signals Are Lining Up

There are so many bottom signals lining up. Capitulation is happening. Capitulation has happened.

10.5 million Bitcoin in loss has marked every major Bitcoin bottom. That same signal is flashing again.

And there’s no more long-lever liquidation liquidity left on ETH.

Meanwhile, there are billions upon billions of leveraged short liquidation liquidity to the upside. Everybody’s betting Bitcoin and ETH are going down. Not a lot of people betting anymore that they’re going up.

Brian Armstrong Zooms Out

“It’s never as bad as it seems with these things. You’ve got to take a long-term perspective.”

He says AI absorbed the risk capital, stable coins became the new meta, and Bitcoin’s inflation trade got less exciting. But these are all short-term effects.

“I think Bitcoin is the new digital gold. So I’m as bullish as ever. My instinct is we’ve probably bottomed at this point, maybe at the 60k number. I think by 2030 we’re going to have a much higher price. And I’m long Bitcoin just like always.”

Clarity Act Update

The White House is still racing to save the Clarity Act. Congress scheduled a hearing for July 17th. We’ve never been closer to getting this passed.

But it’s been kicked down the road for almost a year. They need 60 votes before the August recess. To be honest, if I had to bet, it just doesn’t seem likely at this point in time. But anything can happen. It very much still 100% could pass.

The Hardest Part of the Cycle

Bitcoin is consolidating near the lows, but there’s a lot of support right here. It’s holding the 200-week moving average, still above the February lows, with a bullish divergence.

This is the hardest part of the Bitcoin cycle, the slow, boring middle where price chops sideways, sentiment stays depressed, everybody moves on to stocks and AI, and you start questioning whether your conviction was ever right.

Pat yourself on the back if you’re still present here. A lot of people have capitulated and left. And yet so many remain, and so many new buyers are stepping up.

The Bottom Line

There are so many short-term bearish catalysts, yet so many long-term bullish catalysts.

The crypto market is coming back with a vengeance later this year and next year.

[embed]Why Saylor Says Sell Everything Else, But Never the Bitcoin Why Saylor Calls Bitcoin “Cyber Manhattan”medium.com

[embed]How Long Will This Bear Market Actually Last? The Oil Shock and AI Squeeze Crushing Crypto at Oncedigitalcurrencytraders.com