The Wolf Who Cried Wolf: The Crisis of Preemptive Projection in American Politics (or Why to Vote against Trump this November)

A liar is not often believed, even when telling the truth. — Aesop moral of “The Boy Who Cried Wolf”

What if two Aesop tales have collided and we are now living through a moral crisis in which both the boy cried wolf and the wolf wore sheep’s clothing? Namely, President Trump, elected to save us from wolves, is himself a wolf — and this piece outlines a particularly wolfish way he lies called “preemptive projection.”

American politics is living through a moral crisis. My wife and I admit to one another regularly that we find it increasingly challenging to raise our children to engage responsibly in civics when the political climate is so openly toxic and abusive. One of our children, a natural diplomat, recently admitted they just could not imagine defending recent US state actions. It is as horrible as it is true. How did we get here?

I think we got here through a decade-plus of what I am calling partisan “preemptive projection,” a psychological mechanism of an abuser. Preemptive projection is not new to me (for example, see Neil Buchanan in 2018). “Projection,” any dictionary after Freud will tell you, means the tendency to attribute to another person feelings, thoughts, or attitudes present in oneself; it is an attempt to displace uncomfortable feelings about oneself onto an external opponent in a way that condemns that other, thereby alienating both the accuser and the accused from reality. Preemption is the tactic of striking before another can attack. Combined, preemptive projection means to attack another for having qualities one dislikes about oneself. While public politics has long involved elements of preemption and projection in isolation, my contention is that the MAGA-ified Republican Party has spent more than a decade preemptively projecting in ways that undermine the Republic itself.

The wolf has the megaphone — and he lies by accusing others of doing the things he has done or soon will do.

How Preemptive Projection Works:

Shoot first, deflect later. The preemptive projector fires the first shot, making any targeted response to that attack look like retribution rather than legitimate critique. A key manuever here is to preemptively attack in the very terms that later criticism must use because it will be substantial; the baseless attack thus aims to control the terms of the narrative even before the attacker has the criticism turned on them. The technique is as easy to diagnose as it is cancerous to civic discourse:

• Shoot first: Attack an opponent baselessly using language that will, in the future, apply better to the original attacker.
• Deflect later: When critics respond with evidence, the returning accusations appear to the passerby as merely tit-for-tat counters, regardless of the strength of the evidence.

As an everyday example of shooting first, deflecting later, imagine that I, the proverbial bad neighbor, falsely complain (“shoot first”) that my neighbor always places their trashcans a few inches into my territory. Later, when the neighborhood council intervenes only to discover that my trashcans, not my neighbor’s, are over the line, I boldly lie (“deflect later”) that I placed my trashcans there on purpose as a “just adjustment” to compensate for what I loudly claim are their previous wrongs against me. Even though the neighbor has done nothing wrong, I appear just and claim more territory. Here’s another analogy: imagine that country A accuses country B of existential aggression by encroaching into their backyard, leaving country A claiming it has “no choice but to respond.” Country A then invades country B under “just adjustment” pretenses. When country B complains, with substance, country A dismisses the complaint as mimicry and even confession, while country B does nothing wrong yet loses territory.

This cycle of preemptive attack followed by symmetrical deflection, once repeated ad nauseam, seeds the disinformation environment with false equivalencies, making sober judgment harder. When the wolf repeatedly cries wolf, it becomes hard to draw distinctions between friend and foe. It does not help that the news environment, underfunded since the internet (hello platforms you are reading this on!), has deteriorated to such a degree that the average American has little to no informed news literacy as well as a learned distaste for political discussion. (That “politics” has become a bad word for many covers for the election of governors who believe all government is evil.) The result is that most of the voting public hears little more than the false symmetry of accusations. Few pay attention to the evidenced imbalances between who attacks whom and who has what evidence. Wolves prey, and thus depend, on a compliant flock.

Why Preemptive Projection “Works”:

A lie travels faster than the truth for it is unburdened by evidence. It is always faster to accuse without evidence than to respond with evidence. Shooting first takes advantage of the first part of that sentence; deflecting later takes advantage of the second half. It takes a great deal of time and effort to organize evidence in ways that seek truth and make judgment safer and better. By contrast, it takes only unchecked ego to lie, attack, and flood the zone. With time, preemptive projection renders the whole of political discourse seemingly dismissible: it begins with the preemptive violence of groundless attacks without justification and, when the wolf that cried wolf is met with substantial accusations against him, it ends with the wolf dismissing the claims as mere mimicry, no more than tepid partisan retribution.

The whole cycle is designed to make the public interest seem corrupt and dismissible — precisely so that, behind the screen of public confusion, private forces can seize power and quietly hollow out the public purpose for their own private gain. When Jesus implied that the rich get richer, he meant it as a lament and diagnosis; the wolf offers it to his fellow plunderers as a ravenous prescription. (See point 8 below, among others.)

The wolf’s move of choice, preemptive projection, is not particularly brilliant or crafty. It is not 3D chess whereby the best defense is a good offense. It is a classic abuser behavior. It does not play by the rules of healthy politics, which seek to let the polis govern itself; it simply seeks to benefit the wolf, no one else. But preemptive projection comes with another trick: it insulates itself against substantial criticism. The Trump sympathizer, for example, will likely read my anti-MAGA conclusion here and dismiss it out of hand precisely because preemptive projection has taught them to discount criticism of MAGA as baseless or never as bad as its opposite; and, indeed, were it not for the evidence presented below, they might be right. Preemptive projection obscures and makes challenging low-attention criticism. For example, in order for the average voter to identify premptive projectors, they must also hold in their head a clear timeline about who accused whom of what first and then draw clear casual consequence. But since most people do not do that, they will mistake two simultaneously existing accusations as roughly equivalent, even though the whole point of preemptive projection is that it incriminates the first mover. In other words, all one needs to do to ignore preemptive projection is to simply believe that, independent of evidence, the other party really is worse, no matter what. A sufficiently terrifying boogeyman — a belief in a scary other (e.g., all people who support full woman’s healthcare are murderers, the capture of Western civilization by Sharia law, and countless other monstrous black & white claims)—in turn justifies all things, no matter how wrong or dangerous.

But wait, the critic might intuit, isn’t that precisely what this piece claims here — that all Republicans are big, bad, scary wolves? First, that is not at all what I claim: my argument focuses on Trump’s Party, not people: the many American citizens I admire in the world include many who vote Republican; however, their Party, whose circus has been in the public spotlight for most of my children’s lives, is responsible for our current crisis. Second, it’s a fair point: were there no evidence, then, yes, maybe I am just projecting myself: were there no evidence, the reader might wisely set aside my argument as a quiet form of preemptive projection itself.

And yet, my diagnosis below that Republicans practice disportionate partisan preemptive projection rests on a decade plus of evidence.

The Evidence:

Here are a dozen examples of partisan preemptive projection.

Let’s start with the exceptions that make my case harder. To add to the disinformation environment, sometimes these attacks genuinely do reflect reality on both parties, not just the accusers. For example, the accusation that…

A. “They are celebrity politicians”

applies to both the sweeping rhetorical style of campaign-mode President Obama, who had two biographies before running and has retreated into podcasting after serving, and to President Trump, with his reality TV appearances and rally rhetoric. The tit-for-tat reflections in this mirror are real, even if there are still categories of difference between Obama’s campaign rhetoric of hope that disappoints and Trump’s xenophobic rhetoric that delivers on its cruelty — and little else. It seems regardless the US votes for celebrity over competence when it cannot get both; and never since television, or at least Reagan, has it voted for competence without celebrity. No other case stings more than the senescent Biden.

Or the statement that

B. “They are out-of-touch elites”

also applies to both career politicians and to Manhattan billionaire real estate moguls, if unevenly. One party court private club memberships, wealthy donors, and corporate executives; the other is governed by the same.

In all such examples above, the similarities have more substance than sameness, and that evidence means that reasonable people may sustainably and reasonably disagree. This is the space of usual, even healthy bipartisan politics, where people can formulate different views, weigh evidence, and vote against the worst candidate. Surely there are plenty of other similar claims of comparable yet differentiable equivalence.

But what happens when politics erupts with accusations that have no substance and asymmetric targets? What happens when Dorian Gray decides his cursed portrait describes his opponent instead of himself?

For the last decade plus, MAGA has practiced asymmetric, unsubstantiated attacks against its opponents in ways that project those very accusations back on itself. Here are just a few asymmetric preemptive projections for which the Republican Party is now responsible.

Watch throughout for a mostly false accusation against Trump’s opponents to be followed by a true description of guilty behavior by the accuser.

1. “They inhabit pedophilia networks.”

The accusation: Hardline elements of MAGA embraced the QAnon “pizzagate” conspiracy theory, which frequently accused high-profile Democrats of running global pedophilia rings, while softer elements of MAGA pushed the “creepy uncle Joe” narrative. While elites of all parties have been implicated in scandals, these specific accusations are not true.

The behavior: The Epstein files have highlighted well-documented, decades-long social and professional associations between Donald Trump and Jeffrey Epstein, a heinous sex offender. Photos, records, signed birthday cards, and more show they attended the same parties in the 1990s and 2000s. The public record shows Trump — thrice married and convicted of paying hush money for sexual misconduct — boasting about his attraction to young girls. His record of predatory behavior is undeniable.

2. “They are liars and fools.”

The accusation: MAGA loves to label its opponents — like Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, two career politicians with decades of experience in foreign policy, among other areas — as utterly incompetent and habitual liars. These are relatively untrue claims.

The behavior: By the record, no other administration than Trump’s has done more to normalize the “firehose of falsehood” technique of flooding the media environment with enough contradictory and false information that truth becomes harder to discern. By the Washington Post’s count, Trump uttered more than 30,000 false or misleading claims in his first administration alone; most Presidential peers measure in the hundreds. Trump, despite claiming an Ivy League college degree, also appeals to the uneducated as one of their own while appointing wildly unqualified loyalists to his cabinet. His record of deception and incompetence is well evidenced.

3. “They are fake news, spreading misinformation and propaganda.”

The accusation: Trump turned the phrase “fake news” against the mainstream media outlets that originally used the term to describe his non-relationship to truth. Even though mainstream print-based journalism remains one of the few fact-checked sources for original reporting, the accusation of “fake news” falsely suggests that mainstream outlets are deliberate propaganda arms disseminating intentional misinformation. Mainstream fact-checked print journalism remains the reliable first draft of history.

The behavior: MAGA has deliberately promoted state-supported and MAGA-aligned news channels such as OAN and NewsMax, even as those outlets push demonstrably false and widely debunked claims. They create a mirror version of news that, rather than being based on fact-checked reporting, elevates television talking heads to the gladiatorial arts. MAGA has generated untold amounts of fake news, censored news outlets from government access and applied corporate pressure to silence critics, and promoted know-nothing talking heads — from Fox News, the WWE, and conspiracy podcasts — into positions of power. Alt-right MAGA media now funds the very fake news (bought partisan television) it accuses its opponents of creating.

4. “They are fake Christians.”

The accusation: Trump grabbed the spotlight by claiming Obama was a Muslim and thus a fake Christian, and by dismissing Mitt Romney as a fake Christian, suggesting their values are therefore immoral. The truth is that Obama and Romney must be evaluated by their morals and actions, not by abstract comparison to a world religion.

The behavior: The Republican Party under Trump has, in both rhetoric and action, repeatedly targeted immigrants and the poor. In style and policy alike, it represents an open repudiation of humility, grace, and service to others. Trump’s entire relationship with Christian nationalism appears no more than transactional and uninformed: he and his acolytes depict himself on social media as Jesus and the Pope, only to pick fights with the real one. MAGA represents anything but Christian values: instead of love, forgiveness, and peace, war and vengeance; instead of patience, kindness, and humility, grievance and selfishness; instead of discipline, chaos.

5. “They are rigging the election.”

The accusation: Trump and his supporters have repeatedly claimed that Democrats manipulate election processes — from mail-in ballots to electronic tabulation — to rig results, despite repeated studies and court rulings dismissing all such claims. Election fraud is almost nonexistent.

The behavior: MAGA continuously lies about the outcome of the 2020 election — the “big lie” — despite 60 court cases that vouched for its results. Further investigations into the 2020 and 2024 cycles reveal that MAGA attempted to pressure election officials to change vote counts (such as the Georgia Secretary of State), organized slates of “fake electors” to subvert the Electoral College certification process, and then amassed a violent attack on the Capitol on January 6 to interfere with that exact certification. Additionally, the accusation of “election fraud” — which is almost nonexistent — has spurred policies that advance voter suppression, such as restricting mail-in ballots, increasing ID burdens, limiting Election Day voting periods, and other classic attempts to keep people from voting. MAGA actively advocates for voter suppression.

6. “They are crime families.”

The accusation: Republicans have frequently characterized the Biden family as a “crime family,” alleging corrupt business dealings at home and abroad. Specific concerns usually involve misplaced laptops and Ukrainian corporations. Some of this may have substance.

The behavior: By contrast, Donald Trump has faced four decades of litigation related to business mismanagement, fraud, and bankruptcies. His family now oversees his personal wealth and private trusts, a move that bypasses generations of precedent regarding the constitutional emoluments clause. His inner circle — including Paul Manafort, Michael Cohen, and Roger Stone — has faced criminal convictions related to financial crimes and obstruction. Furthermore, Trump-linked entities established a cryptocurrency project, $Trump, which now serves as a channel for foreign entities to funnel money or seek influence. The President does little that does not first benefit and enrich himself. Repeatedly near bankrupt, the first family is now hugely profitting off of its power.

7. “They are hateful and divisive.”

The accusation: Trump frequently accuses the “radical liberals” of polarizing the country, claiming his opponents are somehow both “swamp creatures” and “extremists,” both Marxists and liberals, while simultaneously dehumanizing his opponents and minority groups. Yet evidence shows that neo-Nazis are not, in fact, “very fine people,” as Trump claimed; they are often everyday people, as Arendt sharpened.

The behavior: The accusation is the bad behavior itself here. Political scientists routinely identify dehumanizing language toward political opponents as a primary driver of political division. This rhetoric is self-perpetuating, damaging not only America but the tens of millions who actually voted for MAGA in previous elections, the vast majority of whom remain, by all evidence, productive and caring citizens and neighbors.

8. “They are wasteful.”

The accusation: MAGA often attacks opponents for “wasting” taxpayer money on foreign aid, government programs, and pork barrel spending, blaming Democrats for the deficit while praising their own fiscal conservatism.

The behavior: According to nonpartisan sources, Democratic administrations are the only party in my lifetime to have repeatedly balanced the budget. Meanwhile, the only major legislation Trump has passed to date committed the single largest transfer of wealth from the poor to the ultra-wealthy in modern world history, increasing the deficit by an unprecedented $4.5 trillion (that’s 4.5 million millions). Meanwhile, his personal behavior lavishes public funds on himself and his family, including gold-covered White House interiors, unilateral renovation projects, planned statues, coins, and dollar bills bearing his face, and private golf club visits for himself and his family — all billed to the federal government.

9. “They are warmongers.”

The accusation: Trump often claims that Democrats and the “deep state” want to start wars for their own benefit and for the military-industrial complex. Some of this is worrisomely true: US presidents of both parties have been involved in hundreds of military interventions abroad over more than a century. Meanwhile, Trump proclaims himself the peace president, promising no new wars.

The behavior: Trump has attacked at least half a dozen countries in 2025 alone — Yemen, Iraq, Iran, Nigeria, Somalia, Syria, and Venezuela — and now Iran, killing tens of thousands of innocent people, including hundreds of children and dozens of US soldiers, while wasting billions of dollars. Even as he attacks Biden for accepting the political costs of a disastrous end to the decades-long American occupation of Afghanistan, Trump launches new, unplanned, unilateral, and legally dubious wars against its neighboring nations. As a result, America is increasingly isolated rather than first among its allies, and mocked by its enemies. (The Iranian embassies are way better than the Democrats at mocking Trump.) The consequences of convincing a realtor he is waging righteous war is an acceleratingly unstable multipolar world.

10. “They are authoritarians.”

The accusation: Republicans frequently label policies like vaccine mandates and business lockdowns as “authoritarian” and indicative of their opponents’ wish to become dictators.

The behavior: Trump has followed the authoritarian playbook, expanding executive power, refusing to accept election results, attacking and constraining the free press, putting documented pressure on independent checks and balances, and transforming the Supreme Court and the Department of Justice into instruments of personal power rather than independent institutions. He openly admires strongman leaders like Viktor Orbán and Vladimir Putin.

In each case, the accusation is principally or at least comparatively false, and it precedes and then deflects from the accuser’s own factually verifiable bad behavior. The evidence is clear. The Republican party is responsible for the last decade plus of poor political behavior and preemptive projection at the heart of our current political crisis. Who else, if not the people who put the wolf in power and appease his appetites?

Conclusion:

The wolf is now in charge of the sheep.

In Aesop’s tale, the boy who cried wolf tells the story of a false alarm. In the end, the boy is undone by the trust he has lost. The story I am describing here combines that with the wolf in sheep’s clothing: today the United States is witnessing its own internal version of the wolf who cried wolf. The pattern is clear: Republicans now accuse their opponents of crimes they intend to commit, then deflect evidence of their own guilt by pointing to the “symmetry” of their opponents’ alleged — but unproven — wrongdoing. Perhaps, in this twisted folktale, after struggling to find a responsible boy to tend the sheep, the people elect a man who promises to hold the boys accountable. As promised, time and again, the man accuses various caretaker boys of irresponsible behavior, and the boys are dismissed and replaced by others. After enough time, the people finally elect the man to replace the boy and to care for the sheep directly. At last, the man sheds his clothing, and the tragedy snaps into focus, revealing him to have been a wolf all along. The wolf is now in charge of the sheep.

The moral of the story, while not comforting, at least has some parsimony: the man who invokes conspiracy theories about pedophiles while orbiting the network of the worst sex offenders is himself a predator. The man who floods the airwaves with tens of thousands of falsehoods while accusing others of lying is himself an architect of confusion. The man who manufactures a propaganda machine to discredit verifiably true stories is himself a dealer of disinformation. The man who wraps himself in gold and wages war against all — even the Pope — is himself a fake Christian. The man who subverts the ballot box and incites a riot to keep his seat is himself an election thief. The man who runs his office like a private syndicate while labeling his opponents a crime family is himself a racketeer. The man who weaponizes dehumanization against his neighbors while decrying polarization is himself a divider. The man who bankrupts the public purse for personal indulgence while preaching fiscal conservatism is himself a squanderer. The man who launches unilateral wars while posturing as a man of peace is himself a warmonger. The man who systematically dismantles the democratic guardrails while projecting his own dictatorial urges onto his critics is himself an authoritarian. The man who attacked and dismissed every shepherd of the sheep is himself the wolf. And the wolf is now in charge of the sheep.

What populist movements champion as “strong” behavior is, in fact, little more than clinically abusive egoism. Because of these asymmetric preemptive projections, the American civic soul has been scarred by a decade of exploitation and manipulation. We are demonstrably worse off today because of the abuse normalized by the last decade of offerings by the Republicans. I offer the above analysis with the intention of shaking loose those who still hold responsible relationships to Republicanism. (I have no hope that MAGA true believers will get past the conviction that my argument lacks balance and is therefore mere mimicry; a decade of evidence has had no effect to date. Why would it now?)

We all know what to do in the midterm elections on November 3, 2026: vote up and down the ballot against any politician that would keep the wolf and his enablers.