This is a logistical wartime analysis from a (former) military analyst (and a woman).

USAF roundel

Lately, the US president has focused on what is universally agreed upon by the international community, as warmongering with vague goals stated such as occupying portions of the Middle East, Greenland, or Venezuela. Aside from various political perspectives, allow me to give a relatively unbiased viewpoint of what an occupation would involve. I apologize, but this administration and the ongoing global situations have got me thinking and I need to write something on this. We’ll get back to writing on travel very shortly, but my time as a military analyst will not allow me to let this go.

There are over 7,000 combat aircraft across the United States armed forces, including the fleet air arms of the US Navy and Marine Corps, and the combat forces (differentiated from the tanker and cargo elements) of the US Air Force. The air force itself alone has over 5,000 operational aircraft in general, but most of these, and most crucially, are a mixture of KC-135 Stratotanker, KC-46 Pegasus refueling aircraft, and a combination of C-17 Globemaster III and C-5M Supergalaxy cargo aircraft, all of which belong to the Air Mobility Command, or AMC, one of just a few named operational “commands” of the US Air Force’s organizational structure. iIndeed, the AMC is the world’s largest transport organization across all fields and potential theaters and nation-states, and the metaphorical backbone of NATO. The US Army has over 945,000 personnel spread across active duty, reserves and the national guard. However, this comes with several caveats. 450,000 personnel are spread to various bases around the globe, and over 350,000 active duty personnel are involved in “base guard duties” “peace-keeping activities” and “joint-force allied training” with NATO allies all over the world, for as long as that alliance holds. At least 350,000 soldiers belong to the national guard, the de facto domestic militia unit of the United States and only, usually unless nationalized (for elements of troops numerically greater than 1,500, nationalization requires an official act of Congress), can be deployed by the governor of the state of which the troops belong and reside. The remaining troops belong to the USAR, or US Army Reserve; these corps are composed of “weekend warriors” who work standard civilian jobs, and serve the army for one weekend a month and up to two weeks a year, in other words, the army is not their standard full-time job. This remains true unless folded, again through Congress, into the standard US Army.

The United States military does not, to put it succinctly, have the resources for a military occupation, much less a war with a peer or near-peer adversary (NPA), such as the People’s Republic of China (P.R.C.), Russia (if you can truly call them a near-peer adversary anymore), or India, (North Korea is not an NPA as it does not meet the requirements). The United States has, according to statistical analysis, the resources and overall infrastructure and combat capability for about three and a half weeks of sustained warfare, before supplies are exhausted or nearly exhausted.

The Air Mobility Command of the US Air Force, the vaunted logistical arm of the entire US military, will have little to do in such a case, aside from ferrying troops from bases to forward operating bases (abbreviated as FOBs in military parlance). The tanker wings of the AMC will have daily sorties, refueling cargo aircraft, fighters, bombers, and other tankers.

Ukraine alone has proven that drone coordination warfare is the wave of the future, and while the US has some drone ability, it is nothing compared to the might of Ukraine, and even Iran, that is simply statistical fact. In addition is the non-equipment oriented fact that the United States does not respect any enemy it has fought since before WWII. As Sun Tzu wisely said in his perennial book, the Art of War, “if you know and respect your enemy, your chances of victory will increase tenfold.” The US is quick to dehumanize and castigate an adversary at the very first opportunity then spending months wondering why they lost a given battle, not understanding why or how. The ultimate truth and choice of the situation is for the United States to wipe out the adversary in the first two to three weeks, or capitulate due to lack of warfighting ability. Iran has shown this; within six weeks of fighting, the US Navy used up 1,300 cruise missiles and is now asking Congress to approve a whopping 1.2 trillion USD taxpayer-funded “replacement funding package.”