Essendon showed the competition how to beat Melbourne, have the Demons fixed it?

Melbourne should beat Essendon. That is what the ladder says, it’s what the form line says, it’s what most of the numbers say.

The Demons sit sixth at 8–5, unbeaten at the MCG and firmly in the finals race. Essendon is last at 1–12 and has won just once all season.

The problem for Melbourne? Essendon’s only win came against them, and it wasn’t a scrape-over-the-line kind of result. It was a 45-point defeat that exposed the same issue that has shaped much of Melbourne’s season.

As I wrote earlier this week, Melbourne’s year is not being decided by whether it can win the ball. It is being decided by what happens next.

That remains the central question against Essendon.

Melbourne should own the contest. The Demons rank first in the AFL for contested possession rate, second for centre clearances, second for hit-outs, fourth for inside 50s and fifth for post-clearance equity.

Essendon rank last for contested possessions, 17th for contested possession rate, 16th for hit-outs, 17th for inside 50s and 17th for post-clearance equity.

On paper, that is a Melbourne game. But Round 5 was supposed to be a Melbourne game too.

Instead, Essendon won disposals by 109, marks by 61, contested possessions by 27, ground balls by 27 and clearances by eight. The Bombers had 139 marks to Melbourne’s 78, well above their season average of 93.5.

That number matters.

Essendon didn’t just beat Melbourne at the contest, they controlled the tempo, kept possession away from the Demons and forced Melbourne to defend for long periods.

It was a red-and-blueprint, showing the rest of the league the recipe to defeat Steven King’s brand new game plan.

The concern is that the same matchup still exists. Melbourne remains one of the poorest ball-use teams in the competition, ranking 17th for disposal efficiency and last for handball efficiency.

Essendon, for all its struggles, is clean with the ball. The Bombers rank fourth for disposal efficiency and first for avoiding clangers.

That is the statistical tension in this game. Melbourne should win the ball. Essendon may use it better.

That has been the danger all season. When Melbourne wins contest and territory but fails to use the ball cleanly, opponents are given chances to score from turnover and transition.

The Demons are fifth for scoring and fourth for ball use equity, while Essendon sits 16th in both ball use equity and scoring.

That should be enough.

But the Round 5 meeting showed that Essendon does not need to dominate season-long trends to trouble Melbourne. It only needs to turn the game into the type of match Melbourne least wants to play.

Control the ball.

Take marks.

Make Melbourne chase.

Wait for the mistake, then punish.

The selection table suggests Melbourne knows something had to change.

The Demons have made four changes, with Jake Melksham, Bailey Laurie, Joel Fitzgerald and Lukas Cooke coming in for Brody Mihocek, Caleb Windsor, Tom McDonald and Latrelle Pickett.

Two changes were forced. Two were not, and that matters.

Melksham brings forward craft, Laurie brings inside fifty tackle pressure. Fitzgerald arrives after a dominant month at VFL level, and Cooke gives Melbourne another intercept option behind the ball.

Those inclusions match what was noticeable at training on Thursday.

Melbourne train at Gosch’s Paddock in the lead up to the Bombers game.

During match simulation, Melbourne repeatedly worked the ball laterally, stretching the field wide before looking for aggressive 45-degree kicks into the opposite pocket.

Width first. Angles second.

It looked like a team trying to change how it moves the ball, that’s the challenge against Essendon. This isn’t just about getting revenge for Round 5, it’s about proving Melbourne has learned from it.

The Demons have already shown they can win ugly, they did that against Collingwood, now they need to show they can win cleanly.

Melbourne is undefeated when it wins the ball use equity battle this season, against Essendon, that feels like the number that matters most.

The Demons should win clearance, they should win territory, they should generate enough inside 50s, but Essendon has already shown the competition how to beat Melbourne once.

Take marks. Control possession. Make the Demons defend after turnover. Expose the gap between winning the ball and using it.

Saturday is Melbourne’s chance to prove that blueprint no longer works.

Feature Image: Melbourne vs North Melbourne pre season match. Photo Credit: Sara Wilkosz

Further Reading

If you enjoyed this article, you may also like:

• Melbourne’s season isn’t being decided by winning the ball. It’s being decided by what happens next • Melbourne finally found another way to win: Five things I noticed against Collingwood • The premiership blueprint: What the last 10 premiers can teach Melbourne • From Pick 93 to prized asset: Kade Chandler’s rise continues

Cam Burt covers Melbourne Football Club and the Casey Demons through statistical analysis, match reviews and long-form features.

Follow along on X at @camburtmedia.