China-Russia alliance is here to stay

Regardless of the wishful thinking of Splitting, Xi-Putin’s “mutual understanding” is enduring for some time.

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***“Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson announces: At the invitation of President Vladimir Putin of the Russian Federation, President Xi Jinping will pay a state visit to Russia from May 7 to 10 and attend the celebrations marking the 80th anniversary of the Victory in the Great Patriotic War in Moscow”.***

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Chinese president is going to Moscow again to meet Russian president Putin. Despite American president trump’s effort to do a “reverse Nixon” by splitting the “no limit partnership” between china and Russia similar to Sino-soviet split, the two authoritarian leaders are doubling down on their shared world view and mutual priorities.

Russia though struggling in Ukraine but make no mistake it is still holding upper hand. With Chinese trade financial support and to some extend trade with India are key to Russia’s survival in unprecedented western sanctions.

Both president Putin and Xi are determined to create an strategic environment favorable to their respective national interest. Russia sees USA's influence in Europe and china sees USA’s influence in east Asia are threat to their dominance and suitable security environment. China wasted no time to utilize anti trump’s tariff sentiment in Asia by arranging state level visit focusing on supply-chain. Russia despite in difficult situation hosting international events like BRICS summit and military exercise. Upcoming Iran’s nuclear issue show down and India-Pakistan tension in south Asia will also provide them to play important role that would challenge the traditional western influence in conflict management. Those who thought about china and Russia are separate issues in two different geography, are likely to be disappointed.

Russia and china are trading in their local currency and trade volume is all time high. Technological collaboration is also deepening across all spectrum. Brics as an organization still is in teething process. Though still not that much matter in geopolitics according to experts, future is crucial to see. Gulf countries and south Asian countries like Pakistan and Bangladesh are also betting big on china. Despite having border tension, India is improving ties with china not to mention that Russia historically enjoyed deep partnership with India. East Asia is balancing not that much tilting to USA one may expect due to multi claims in south china sea. countries like Vietnam which has significant dispute with china, surprisingly taking chinse civil aircraft.

Geopolitics is a long game. History and historical evolution matter. Just like project of promoting democracy in Afghanistan and Iraq failed to materialize due to lack of critical thinking and failure to understand that nation building is an organic process. The china-Russia alliance is something been built on pragmatism, similar world view and deep personal relationship between two leaders. It is unlikely to change in short term at least. Even if the leader get changed in respective countries, it is highly likely that new comer will maintain the previously established mutual process of coordination. So, Western capitals must take a long term view in managing the relation with China and Russia by taking strategic plan that includes both deterrence and effective dialogue. Short term wishful thinking must be avoided.