Nigeria’s Race to the Presidency Disintegration: Prediction or Destiny?

Originally published on LinkedIn in July 2015. Republished here by the author.

Many have alleged that the United States predicted Nigeria would disintegrate by 2015, stating that each zone would become self-governed. True or not, the current electoral candidates, in my view, may cause this to happen. My stance on the current candidates is that we are doomed if we don’t, we are doomed if we do.

Whatever the case may be, one or the other may make the presumed prediction come to reality, and there is little anyone can do about it. The fight against corruption has led to corrupt statesmen filling their pockets in time to bring about a regime that will favor their plight, and, if not a case of if I can’t have you, nobody can, a type of demise will ensue, thereby ensuring, through their acts, the disintegration of Nigeria.

Noteworthy politicians like Fashola, who should have been nominated for the presidency to give Nigeria a fighting chance at survival, were brushed aside for whatever reason. Many whom I have spoken to, regardless of religion and tribe, have categorically stated that if he were nominated, they would vote for him because he has shown himself to be not just a charismatic leader but an innovative one with a passion for restoring change.

His governorship in Lagos speaks for itself. It is a given that Jonathan and Buhari have had their fair share of successes. For example, Jonathan has helped open Nigeria to the global business community, making Nigeria Africa’s number one destination for foreign investors under the current Trade and Investment Minister, Olusegun Aganga.

Able to re-base Nigeria’s GDP for the first time in over a decade to become the largest economy in Africa, overtaking South Africa and Egypt in the process, increased the proceeds from Nigeria’s non-oil exports from 2.3 billion in 2010 to 2.97 billion by the end of 2013, initiated the YOUWIN program in 2011 to generate over 100,000 jobs for innovative unemployed youths across the country in the course of three years, integrated Nigeria into the international e-commerce community with the approval and re-inclusion of Nigeria as one of the Paypal-compliant countries, revived the automotive industry in Nigeria, successfully hosted the World Economic Forum (WEF) in 2014 amidst security threats, constructed many federal roads in the country, including the Lagos-Benin expressway, Abuja-Lokoja expressway, Enugu-Abakiliki expressway, Onitsha-Owerri highway and most parts of the Enugu-Port Harcourt expressway, revived the railway system in the country, constructed, remodeled and standardized airports across the country.

In addition, aircraft from Nigeria are now allowed to fly directly to the United States of America instead of making many stopovers in Amsterdam and other European cities along the route. The Akanu Ibiam Airport in Enugu was upgraded to international status, directly connecting the South-East region of the country to the outside world for the first time since independence.

Established nine federal universities across the country in states which previously had no federal degree awarding institution, introduced the Almajiri system of education for the academically disadvantaged Northern parts of the country, with the aid of Lagos state governor (Gov. Fashola) stopped the outbreak of the deadly and highly contagious Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) in record time, transformed the agricultural sector, through reducing food imports by over 40% as of 2013, moving the country closer to self sufficiency in agriculture, has made Nigeria the world’s largest producer of cassava with an output of over 45 million metric tonnes in 2014, according to the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO), increased Internet penetration in Nigeria from about 45 million in 2011 to 63 million in 2014, overtaking countries such as the United Kingdom and France in the process, introduced the cashless system which aims to discourage fraud and corrupt practices, diversified the electric Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN) into about 18 profit-driven successor companies and lastly Women have been given more prominent roles in politics which is one of the MDG goals for democratic states.

Consequently, during Buhari’s reign as president, as part of his War Against Indiscipline, he ordered Nigerians to form neat queues at bus stops, under the sharp eyes of whip-wielding soldiers. Civil servants who were late for work were publicly humiliated by being forced to do a frog jump.

As part of anti-corruption measures, he also ordered that the currency be replaced — the color of the naira notes was changed — forcing all holders of old notes to exchange them at banks within a limited period. Needless to say, Jonathan's success, though good, does not really solve the country’s problems of insurgency, joblessness, firm innovation, accountability, judicial impropriety, and corruption, as they remain the order of the day.

His rise to the presidency was due to sheer luck and political cabal maneuvering. Claims that he was drunk in the office during important meetings and functions have filled the ears of ordinary citizens, making him appear incompetent as the nation’s leader. His inability to make firm decisions has led to corruption that bewilders the minds of sane individuals.

My disregard for his government came not when the EMAB plaza was bombed, which I was in close proximity to at the time, but the lack of even a second of national mourning for the 40 boys killed in February 2014. What baffled me even more was the fact that the centenary celebrations could be heard from their location around town with no remorse for the dead and parents of the victims.

What were we celebrating, I asked myself, that could not be held off or postponed, where innocent lives had been lost because of a fight between insurgents and government? The government could not even understand that these lives were lost as a result of their allegiance to it as citizens, and offer a national mourning exercise.

Then came the kidnapping of the Chibok girls, and to date, nothing has been done, where if given the opportunity, I would level the whole of Sambisa forest so all inhabitants have only one route of escape and capture. Let’s not even forget the various students killed at varying times, the missing reserve funds, the oil price fall, judicial improprieties, and the devaluation of the naira. Should Jonathan win this election, I fear what may become of Nigeria and Nigerians because his vision and blueprint for the country is not just under scrutiny but non-existent.

In the case of Buhari, I fear to say that the democracy we believe we are under may altogether vanish. He, too, has no vision for Nigeria and is only going by his past achievements, which to me is neither here nor there. Aptly described by the BBC as one of mixed feelings, and until recently advised that his zeal to bring corrupt perpetrators to justice will be halted, except for those currently being investigated by the judiciary.

However, it seems Buhari’s ideas are still the same as they were when he was president in 1983, as he jailed about 500 politicians, officials, and businessmen as part of a campaign against waste and corruption. His legacy was described as heavy-handed repression of military rule, and he also introduced a notorious decree to restrict press freedom, under which two journalists were jailed.

Even Obasanjo has said Mr. Buhari would not be a good economic manager, as his attempts to re-balance public finances by curbing imports led to many job losses and the closure of businesses, while prices rose and living standards fell during his presidential reign. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-12890807 07/01/2015.

Our shouts of child marriage and female inclusion in government will be baseless should he come to power, as his second wife was just 13 when he married her, according to my calculations. She is said to have been 38 as of December 2014 https://m.facebook.com/Valachi.Joe.Michelle/posts/10203166591591796 07/01/2015 and got married to him in Dec 1989 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muhammadu_Buhari 07/01/2015. In addition, reports by the pilot newspaper suggest that the only Female APC gubernatorial candidate has been rejected by Buhari with claims of an unfair electoral process https://www.linkedin.com/redir/suspicious-page?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnigerianpilot%2ecom%2Ftaraba-buhari-rejects-female-apc-guber-candidate%2F.

This could be a ploy to truly ensure women are not part of his government, as he believes women should not have a place in politics. So why would we leave the real issues about Nigeria, which are economic and democratic, to Buhari, knowing that what we are wailing about are the economic issues facing Nigeria? In addition, a man who ousted a democratic government defended his actions by saying, “If you choose correct leadership, there won't be any need for the military regime, which is currently in bed with individuals accused of corrupt practices.”

The military came in only when absolutely necessary, and the elected officials had failed the country, he said in October 2005. Does this mean he is failing us now? He may well go back on his word to his sponsors and party and implement what he decides as the best means to curbing Nigeria’s excesses, with possible imprisonment of those in his party accused of corrupt practices. His zeal for the use of force is best suited to the military, not to the presidency in a democracy.

Neither candidate is innovative and has no vision for where they would like the country to go. All are grasping at straws, with the lives of millions at stake. This is a terrible and worrisome time for Nigeria. My take would be to merge both parties and make Buhari in charge of security issues, as his best act was his tough stance as a military commander in 1983 when he blockaded Nigerian islands that were annexed in Lake Chad by Chadian soldiers and drove off the invaders.

As for Goodluck, he should rid himself of most of the people around him and gird his loins with Fashola as his VP and a constant adviser on what to do. As far as I am concerned, with Fashola in Aso Rock under Goodluck, he will not be a sitting duck, but the president. Since Mr. President appears ill-equipped, he would be adequately advised via his second (VP), who would have to make the tough choices while he (Mr. President) approves.