China’s Rapid Combat Aircraft Development: A Strategic Leap Towards Air Superiority

China is rapidly progressing in various technological fields, including artificial intelligence, 6G networks, space exploration, robotics, quantum computing, renewable energy, drones, and high-speed rail technology. This article delves into China’s ambitious efforts to modernize its combat aircraft fleet, highlighting the development of advanced models like the J-20, J-35, and J-16.

J-35A at 2024 Zhuhai Air Show (Image: wikipedia)

It explores the strategic intent behind this rapid expansion, the integration of cutting-edge technologies, and the implications for global military balance. The piece also examines the future composition of the PLA Air Force and Naval Aviation, projecting their capabilities by 2035 and analyzing how China aims to achieve numerical and technological parity with global powers like the United States.

An outline of China’s development of combat aircraft

China is currently producing or developing several frontline combat aircraft, including the J-10, J-11, J-15, J-16, J-20, J-35, J-36, and J-50 — eight different models in total. This rapid expansion raises an important question: What is the strategic intent behind this surge in aircraft development? Such a pace of construction and innovation has not been seen since the 1960s. Over the past half-century, major combat aircraft have been developed at a much slower rate, whether in the West, the Soviet Union, or Russia. As technology has advanced, costs have steadily risen, complexity has increased, and the resources required to deploy a fully combat-capable squadron have grown significantly.

Then from the 1980s onward, the race gradually shifted towards sensors and armaments, guided missiles, better radars, sensors, electronic intelligence, and electronic warfare. A large portion of today’s aircraft combat capability is external to the aircraft. Tanker electronic warfare communication nodes, often known as “force multipliers,” are now crucial to a power’s deployment, and this is where China comes in.

They began emulating Western or Soviet designs, but that is history. Now, China’s competitive advantage lies precisely in almost all modern technologies. China excels in all those technologies — electronics, sensors, guidance, automation, etc. — where the competition is fierce. Today, it seems that the Chinese are still accelerating progress. Consequently, there is a rift between the United States and China. This is true for almost anything related to China, not just combat aircraft. Just consider all of the news that has been reported in the major media, and you won’t have a clear idea of what’s going on.

For instance, consider the Trump administration’s position on the Panama Canal, where it appears that Chinese ownership is the problem. These are contentious topics, and news organizations frequently cover them from a biased viewpoint. Similarly, its difficult to get overall picture of the latest technological development in China. Nevertheless, we shall attempt to address objective viewpoints of Chinese combat aircraft here.

PLA AF position and future projections

Let us see the current configurations of the People’s Liberation Army Air Forces (PLAAF) and the possible setup in 2035. The year 2035 is important for the Chinese government — for the completion of the modernization of the Armed Forces.

Approximately 1,300 aircraft are deployed by the Chinese combat line. There are more, but these are older varieties whose combat utility is gradually diminishing. In contrast, the combined forces of the US Air Force and US Navy deploy almost 3,000 combat aircraft, to which hundreds of allied aircraft will be added in the event of a conflict. These aircraft are more than twice as many as the Chinese, even though not all of them will be deployed or be deployable in the Western Pacific.

China will need to acquire about 1,700 aircraft in ten years if the goal for 2035 is also to achieve numerical parity. The precise production numbers and capacity of China are unknown to us, but the estimations would range from 200 to 300 when all sorts are taken into account. This would more than suffice to achieve numerical parity within a decade. At present, there are 120 Sukhoi Su-30 and Su-35 are in production in China; these include 73 Su-30 mkk for the PLA AF.

The fighter jets delivered between 2001 and 2004, are the majority of the Su-35’s avionics. Additionally, 24 Su-35S aircraft were supplied between 2016 and 2019, and 24 Sukhoi Su-30 MK2, a later, better version of the MKK, are currently in service with the Naval Aviation. Despite being relatively current fourth plus generation combat aircraft, probably these will be gradually withdrawn from service. Chinese fourth and fifth generation combat aircraft include the Shenyang J-11, Chengdu J-10C, Shenyang J-16, and Chengdu J-20. The Chinese integrated combat management system, which is being gradually implemented around the J-20, is probably incompatible with Russian systems.

Furthermore, the Chinese have their own variations of flankers. The J-11 is somewhat of a mystery, with only 150 units still in operation. The J-11 is the first Chinese derivative of the licensed Sukhoi Su-27 and is primarily used for air combat. Therefore, given that it was first supplied in 2000, it is fairly old, at least by Chinese standards. Although some reports claim that some new aircraft are still being constructed, it is more likely that the J-11BG variant’s significant midlife upgrade is either still in progress or was just finished.

The J-16 is an entirely different story; it is thought to be a very modern aircraft that is a descendant of the J-11B, the twin-seater version. It was initially sighted in 2012 and is occasionally regarded as the world’s best flanker. There are 300 of these powerful, long-range strike fighters in operation. The aircraft is still up to date, efficient, and integrates some of the technologies created for the J-20, including as radar signature reduction and network-centric warfare.

Analysis of some aircraft models

The J-16 aircraft remains in production and is regarded as the Chinese Air Force’s workhorse. Although it will still be in use and in significant quantities in 2035, the Chinese Air Force has other workhorses besides the J-11. More than 600 of the multiroll J-10 aircraft have been produced. The J-10A, the early versions, and the J-10 B and C variants, however, differ significantly.

In actuality, the J-10 A is presently designated for roles involving aggression and training. About 275 contemporary J-10s of the B and C variants are currently in service; the C variant is still being produced and is regarded as a fourth plus generation aircraft. The PLAAF continues to invest in it; for instance, it has been reported that the J-10 is developing primarily in the air-to-ground roll lately. Actually, it appears to be most suited for battlefield interdiction or closer support operations in Chinese ingenuity.

Then there is the J-20, stealth aircraft, which is undoubtedly being built by the Chinese at a very rapid pace. An estimated 100 units are produced, while an additional 300 are thought to be in use. The US Air Force currently views it as a great system, even going so far as to tell Congress that the early F-22s from the early blocks that are still in use are not as good as the J-20 in terms of operation. Thus, it appears that the J-20 will emerge as a key component of the Chinese Air Force. However, the J-20 does not appear to be a multi-roll aircraft.

One of the highlights of the 2024 Zhuhai Air Show was the J-35. It is regarded as a fourth generation aircraft with several rolls. Some Western analysts are highly skeptical that the aircraft will include capabilities like cooperative targeting or the same degree of situational awareness as the F-35, in addition to stealth. It began as a naval aircraft and is currently getting close to being able to operate with the PLA AF. And the necessity for a fourth generation aircraft that fills in the operational gaps left by the J-20 is evident.

We may witness a massive increase in J-35 production in three or four years. Let’s see where this is taking us in terms of the PLA AF’s appearance in 2035. That being said, the PLAAF may appear very different by 2035. The flankers will either disappear or be relegated to extremely minor duties, such as the J-16.

PLA air force by 2035

It is expected that, a series of stealth, fully fifth generation aircraft made up of J-35 and J-20 will be available for use in contested locations. However, because the primary PLAAF operational case will always be the antithesis of the US Air Force, assaulting its combat assets and, most importantly, the American Force multipliers, the proportion of J-25 will be significant — much larger than you would anticipate. We probably assume 400 J-16s, 600 J-10s, 400 J-35s, and 600 J2s. Roughly 2,000 contemporary aircrafts that are numerically comparable to the forces could be deployed in case of hot conflict.

Although the J-36 is a different story, I believe that what we have witnessed is more likely to be the initial prototype of a new aircraft. Due to the absence of information and official news, one should be extremely cautious of such analysis. Therefore, whatever results from it is most likely going to be after 2035. However, I am sure that Chinese are working on many precision projects. The response to the United States is somewhat symmetrical.

️PLA navy and future developments

But what about Chinese Naval Aviation or the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN)? Two CATOBAR carriers are probably going to be operational or almost operational by 2035. In addition to the potential for some aircraft to be used on the type 076 light carriers, this will offer a fleet of two STOBAR carriers and three CATOBAR carriers.

Therefore, five carrier wings plus a few replacements will be required, but the STOBAR carrier wings will be smaller than the American counterparts. Nevertheless, the Z5T is now in development and has most likely already flown from the Fujian carrier. Chinese are lagging somewhat in the development of carrier-based combat aircraft. It is a significantly updated model of the nearly obsolete existing J-15. However, the aircraft is at the end of its development. Nonetheless, we are aware that the J-35’s naval version is approaching and will undoubtedly take over as the primary piloted element of Chinese naval aviation.

It is quite probable that the electronic combat version of the J-35 will have supplanted the majority, if not all, of the J-15S by 2035. We might anticipate a line of 150 J-35s and perhaps 50 J-15S, but what about the J-150? Based on what we’ve seen, it’s possible that the J-15 is a carrier sixth generation fighter, but we may not see it being in service before 2035.