Ukraine Update May 22

2026 — Day of Beauty in Ukraine, Day of Chaos for Bloggers, Fuzzy Search Engines

So Goes the Invasion of Ukraine

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Another day, another night of Ukrainian drones swarming into Russia. Russia sent 116 drones into Ukraine, 109 of which were shot down, while Ukraine sent around 200 drones (according to Russian sources) and missiles into Russia.

As for today’s strikes, Moscow's airports are closed due to an air alert, though I haven’t seen any results yet. In Yaroslavl, drone attacks were reported, but the targets have not yet been identified. There is a large refinery there that has been attacked recently, but NASA FIRMS hasn’t shown any updated heat signatures.

It’s really difficult to ensure that the videos and photos of refineries burning are actually new strikes rather than footage from older strikes.

Along the Kherson-Crimea border, near the land bridge, the FSB took over the “Pasazh” hotel. Ukrainian drones hit the building, and Russians are complaining about significant personnel losses from the strike, perhaps as many as a hundred. This building hosted FSB offices and drone operators. The entire hotel complex was hit with at least six heavy bomber drones.

Russians report a series of drone strikes in the Kherson region that caused significant casualties. OSINT collectives have geolocated several strikes in recent days along the logistics highway that runs from Russia along the coast of the Sea of Azov. Dashcam and drone footage show trucks, often carrying gasoline or diesel, destroyed on the side of the road. It’s a new “highway of death” that is dozens of kilometers from the front lines.

Since the start of the war, there have been 158 strikes on Russian refineries. Only 32 of those strikes are in 2026, but the numbers can be deceptive. The latest strikes are also the most effective. There were 88 in 2025, so 2026 is shaping up to hit that number by mid-summer. Unless, of course, they run out of targets and the oil industry collapses entirely, so that hitting some other subset of targets would make more sense. Honestly, I hope that Putin refuses to make peace until Russia collapses completely. After oil and gas, Ukraine can take out its power generation capacity, leaving the entire country without electricity. It isn’t just the invasion of Ukraine that needs to end, but the concept of Russian Imperialism itself. The idea that Russia is a superpower, that Russia has some sort of historical legacy to be proud of, the modern concept of Russian-ness itself.

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The partisan group ATESH set fire to a locomotive in St. Petersburg last night.

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Russians continue to sabotage themselves to avoid combat. This T-90 was left alone in a dugout with the hatches open. One can only assume that was on purpose. The soldiers do this to avoid having to go on assault. Better to watch the tank burn from the treeline than drive it across a mine field.

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There are reports on Russian social media of gas stations in Crimea and Ryazan running out of gasoline.

The occupational government of Sevastopol put out a message to the citizens.

“92 and 95 octane are available, but not at all stations. Diesel is currently available only to ration card holders. The limit is 20 liters per customer for gasoline.”

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Russian media and bloggers are preparing Russia to accept some form of defeat. There is no talk yet of actually leaving Ukraine, but the talk about taking the rest of Donbas, as well as Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, is turning into “borders aren’t that important.” This is one example among many.

He goes on to define what victory means.

“Victory is cementing what we have done for ourselves at the time of the special military operation, who we have become, and where we are going. If we can reimagine ourselves, reassemble, and understand our place in the globe. We are only capable of reimagining ourselves under pressure, so to speak. The most important thing to me is that we don’t lose any more of our country.”

They are now focusing on saving what Russia is and has, and no longer focused on taking more.

Solovev, for his part, is saying that Russia must now embrace the Chinese, who are, after all, not the Golden Horde of yesteryear.

Of course, Ukraine has its own influencers, and Kyrylo Budanov is among them, shown here in his vyshivanka.

“Rus is Ukraine. But Rus is more. Much more. And Ukraine is the homeland of all Rus culture, even the one we are fighting against. We gave away a large part of our history, gave it away voluntarily, and those, as much as we gave away, privatized it. But they are nobody; we are Rus. And we must rule over all of them.”

He is talking about the history of the Kyivan Rus culture, which existed long before the Moscovian culture rose up in the north. In the early 18th century, Moscovia rebranded itself as “Russia,” taking the name of the civilization that had, for centuries, been part of Kyivan culture. Until that time, the northern empire was known as “Moscovia.”

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Vycheslave Shiryaev, a Russian economist, warns that Ukraine will win sooner than anyone thinks.

“So tomorrow, when Ukraine systematically knocks out the other 75% of (refinery) capacity left after all the strikes in April, Russia will come to a standstill. Paralysis. Belarus won’t supply us with gasoline. Nobody will provide us with gasoline. Look at the world market for gasoline right now, where will Russia get 80,000 tons of gasoline a day? Where is it going to buy it, for any amount of money? If Ukraine does in the coming days what it has been doing for April and May, Ukraine will win much sooner than anyone thinks, because Russia will be brought to its knees. We can’t do anything about the attacks on the oil infrastructure. All of this rattle about nuclear weapons is because Putin realizes that he has no way out. This is worse than defeats in Kherson and Kharkiv for Putin. Being left without gasoline, with non-running trucks that can’t be refueled, could bring the country down in two or three weeks. This is worse than defeat on the front.”

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Another Russian blogger, Mardan, suggests that the return of the Golden Horde could be a good thing for Russia.

“The Order of Genghis Khan could very well have been established at the federal level. … For ordinary people, the tribute amounted to only a 10% tax on the people, 10% of sales, and the results of labor. For merchants, it was even less, a small percentage of income. Just for a moment, compare this with the current Russian tax system, VAT, income tax, personal tax, payments to social funds, endless levies, after which, all that is left is a pittance.”

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State media in Russia has been banned from using the word “ban” to describe the bans on saying things on state media in Russia. From Moscow Times. “United Russia” is Putin’s political party.

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In another example of Russia and America resembling each other, Boris Bondarev at Moscow Times talks about how the Kremlin elites have no way to remove Putin, even if they wanted to. I see a similar situation in America right now.

The Republicans and the Russians are facing the same problem. Remove Trump, and Republicans will not win any elections in the country. Without the MAGA base, they have anemic turnout. They have betrayed the independents and the Reaganites to such a degree that getting “normal” Republicans back is a very difficult task. Russia, without Putin, so the Russians believe anyway, will collapse into chaos. There is no opposition to hand the reins to, no network of competent leaders that can try to undo the damage. At least America has an out, perhaps, if there are any elections in America’s future. The results of Massie’s primary election leave me doubting.

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Russia is offering to let the entire “shadow fleet” re-register its ships under a Russian registration, which, it claims, will offer the ships protection at sea, and the “support of Russian diplomacy and the navy.”

Ingenuity

This Ukrainian is asking for a “reverse air alert”, a song that would play on our phones whenever Russia is being bombed. My suggestion was the Jedi theme from Star Wars because my air alert app, the English-language version, uses Mark Hamill’s voice to warn us to take cover.

Meanwhile, in Iran

Oh, who the hell knows? America is saying there is a solution in the works. Iranian rumors are saying they are keeping the uranium no matter what, while other Iranian rumors say there is some wiggle room there.

The Strait is closed. The US isn’t using force and probably can’t without unacceptable losses.

“The solution? The US just goes home. Iran has been attacked by the US and Israel. It has every reason to believe that if it makes major concessions, it will be attacked again. So Iran will keep up its deterrence. It won’t give up what the US is demanding.” They’ve seen Libya give up its weapons and get destroyed. They’ve watched Ukraine give up nukes in exchange for security guarantees that evaporated.” — Jeffrey Sachs.

I can’t believe that I’m actually understanding this idiot. I’m not saying he’s right, but I do understand the position that Iran is in. The US has zero credibility as a result of what they did not do in Ukraine, and this goes back to 2004. They denied Ukraine entrance into NATO, they did nothing when Russia invaded in 2014, they did as little as possible when Russia launched the full-scale invasion in 2022, and now the US is demanding that Ukraine surrender.

Meanwhile, in the USA

Under pressure from the Pentagon, Congress, Europe, and everyone in the world with an IQ over 80, Trump has decided to leave the 5,000 troops in Poland as originally planned. He associated the decision with the election of Karol Nawrocki, the president, but that election was last year. He was inaugurated in August, 2025.

So, either Trump is lying, is confused, or is covering up for the fact that the decision was taken out of his hands and he wants to look like it was his choice. Or, of course, the reality, which is that it was all three.

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Greenland doesn’t like Trump. The US is running at least two subversion operations right now, one in Canada and the other in Greenland. It is trying to drum up support for secession and defection to the US, an act that would, in normal times, be considered an act of war. Millions of dollars are being funneled into disinformation campaigns to convince Canadians and Greenlanders that life would be better under Trump’s rule.

Roughly half the population of Greenlad came out today to protest against Trump and the United States at the US Consulate.

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Part of the genius of Trump’s regime is that nobody can decide if the disasters they cause are on purpose or due to incompetence. Farms are going bankrupt across the country — was this part of the plan, and the reason that so many in the administration are invested in companies that buy up farmland, and are selling American farmland to China, or was it just sheer incompetence as a result of their other policies, so many of which hurt farmers? I can’t even name all of them. Tariffs on Canada, the Iran war, the tariff regime as a whole, failure to regulate food safety to a level that would make our exports palatable, the list goes on.

This is just ONE example. There are a million others. Some ascribe it to a conspiracy to ruin people’s lives. Some see it as temporary pain that will bring long-term gains. Some to unintended and unforeseeable consequences (this is the dumbest take, as everything Trump has destroyed was predicted, often in great detail, years before it happened). Some ascribe it to outright malevolence. Others to simple incompetence.

As long as all those people are arguing about the cause and the plan, they can’t deal with the facts — whatever it is that Trump is doing isn’t working.

This is why I give no quarter to elected and appointed officials. If they say something that is untrue, they are lying. They are not mistaken, not ill-informed, not offering a different perspective. They are lying. If someone has the power and the responsibility to know the truth, and says something else, the REASON they say it doesn’t matter. They are lying.

I’m frequently told that Trump’s attitude towards Ukraine was formed because Zelensky refused to manufacture fake evidence to help Trump’s campaign against Biden. The problem is, I don’t care WHY Trump hates Ukraine and loves Russia — the fact is that he does. When they ascribe it to Trump’s personal feelings, that just tells me that Trump is stupid, because world leaders should not be making national policy based on petty grievances.

Day of Beauty

I love Vyshivanka Day in Ukraine. Yes, I partake, and damn, I look good, too. It’s a new holiday that appeared only after independence, started by Lesia Vorniuk, a university student in Chernivtsi, in 2006. The Vyshivanka, which literally means “embroidered thing” in Ukrainian, is a day when many Ukrainians, and I would even informally say a majority, wear the traditional clothing to show solidarity and support for their culture. It isn’t obnoxious like wearing flag-themed jean shorts. One can wear a vyshivanka any day, and nobody will think twice about it. It’s appropriate for business meetings, weddings, birthday parties, or just going to a normal day at work. You can buy one for $20 or $2,000, and they come in all shapes and sizes. There are shirts, both long and short-sleeved. There are pants, dresses, skirts, and blouses in modern and traditional styles and cuts. You can wear them with jeans, high heels, trainers, or cowboy boots. Some will accent their business attire; some will go all out and put together a traditional dress ensemble. These photos were taken by a photographer in Kyiv, but just search for “vyshivanka” on Instagram, and you’ll get all kinds of selfies.

Another wonderful thing about it is that everyone is welcome to join. You don’t have to be Ukrainian to wear a vyshivanka. My son and I both do, as do all the kids in his school yesterday (with the caveat that we send an extra shirt for them to change into at mealtime and outdoor recess, so that we don’t ruin the vyshivanka. Kids, right?). Guests in the country are encouraged to participate, and will be welcomed when they do.

This is Ukrainian boxer Usyk in Egypt yesterday. He’s the first male boxer to become a three-time undisputed champion in the “four belt era”. Whatever that means. Boxing fans?

Of course, you can always go the non-traditional route, and who am I to complain? This is a lady who fundraises for drones.

And Olga Patlyuk, who sells handmade jewelry on Etsy, some of which I’ve bought in the past.

https://www.etsy.com/shop/HappyJewelryHelga?dd_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2F

A Look Back

In 1672, the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth signed a treaty with the Ottoman Empire that mentioned the “Ukrainian State”. Also, dang, people had awesome handwriting back then.

And there is Voltaire, writing about Ukraine.

Just Ukrainians being Ukrainian

The village stork was left without a mate when her husband died, meaning that she was starving herself to care for their eggs. The villagers in Vinnytsia came to the rescue.

Humor?

Are the Russians just unaware, or being intentionally ironic here? Advertisements to join the military at a bus stop in Russia. The name of the bus stop? Meat Factory.

Мясо — meat

комбинат — factory.

I have taken to referring to “AI”s, as they currently exist, as Automated Plagiarism Machines, but I found a new one while feeding my social media addiction —

Fuzzy Search Engines. As in, “responses by AIs are queries into existing data that was created by people. That’s a fuzzy search engine, not intelligence.”