Signals Now Live On Citrea Testnet!

Signals: Range‑Based Bitcoin Price Prediction Market

Signals: Range‑Based Bitcoin Price Predictions

Today we introduce Signals, the first range-based Bitcoin price prediction market launching on the Citrea Testnet.

Instead of a binary Yes or No, you pick a price range. Prices are continuous, yet most prediction markets force them into discrete buckets. Signals lets you choose your own range, control risk and reward, and aggregates all positions into a live probability distribution that reveals market sentiment on Bitcoin. Built on Citrea, a Bitcoin zk rollup, Signals runs in a Bitcoin-aligned environment with faster, lower-cost transactions.

The Problem with Traditional Prediction Market

Not Everything Can Be Answered With Yes or No

The world does not unfold in Yes or No. Temperature, commute time, rainfall, revenue, election turnout, final scores — and most importantly, prices — all land somewhere on a continuous scale. Yet most prediction markets flatten this richness into a single dividing line: “Above 20?” or “Over 150K?” If someone believes “around 120,500 to 121,200” or “roughly 22 to 24 minutes,” a binary box cannot capture that conviction. Nuance is lost.

Fragmented Liquidity

Yes/No markets force users to split their capital across multiple individual price bets. Instead of freely choosing a price target, users are restricted to predefined boxes that cover only a single price point. This fragments capital and leaves traders with less efficient bets that don’t fully reflect their actual view.

You cannot visualize the market belief

Binary questions produce isolated percentages. They do not add up to a full picture of where people think the outcome will land. What you need is a distribution: a simple curve or stack of bars that shows where opinions cluster and how confidence fades to either side. With a distribution, teams can see the crowd’s most likely zone and how that view shifts over time.

(Binary questions are still useful for truly binary events like “Will the launch happen this week?” For continuous outcomes, they hide the signal you actually need.)

The Solution: A Range-Based Approach to Price Discovery

Let users set a price range and place a prediction inside it. Wider ranges mean lower risk and lower potential return. Narrow ranges mean higher risk and higher potential return. Aggregate every position into a probability curve so anyone can see how the crowd expects BTC to close.

This approach preserves nuance, allows people to express conviction precisely, and turns individual bets into a clear market signal.

Why Bitcoin, Why Now

Price is the most closely watched continuous signal, and Bitcoin is its most visible form. That’s why Signals starts here — but our vision goes further. By capturing people’s range-based predictions and aggregating them into a live probability distribution, we transform scattered opinions into a clear picture of market sentiment. This view not only shows where the crowd expects price to land, it also reveals how confidence shifts over time — offering insights that binary markets can never provide.

Why Signals Isn’t Just Another Prediction Market?

There are plenty of prediction markets out there — Polymarket being the most obvious example — but they all share the same flaw: they force everything into yes/no bets. That works for simple binary events, but it breaks down for continuous outcomes like price. The result is fragmented liquidity, noisy odds, and no real visibility into what the market actually believes.

How Signals Differs from Traditional Markets

Signals is built differently. Instead of squeezing into pre-set buckets, you choose your own price range. Liquidity isn’t scattered across dozens of markets — it’s pooled into one deep system. And rather than isolated percentages, Signals gives you a live probability distribution: a clear, continuous view of where conviction clusters and how sentiment shifts over time.

Paradigm Shift in Prediction Markets

Continuous-Outcome Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule (CLMSR)

Signals introduces a breakthrough in prediction markets with our Continuous-Outcome Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule (CLMSR) technology. This advanced system extends traditional models to support continuous outcomes, all implemented efficiently on-chain.

CLMSR vs Traditional Prediction Market for Price Prediction

Our innovative approach features automatically scaling liquidity, a sophisticated Lazy-Multiplicative Segment-Tree Tick Engine for efficient processing, and treats the entire price axis as one unified system through fixed intervals.

Learn more about how CLMSR solves liquidity fragmentation in our tech post.

Vision

Start with BTC on Citrea, then bring the same range-based, crowd-driven distribution to any continuous value. Signals makes market expectations visible and actionable so anyone can set a range, tune risk, and read the curve at a glance.

Call to Action

We are launching on the Citrea Testnet!

• Try Signals and place your first range: https://beta.signals.wtf/
• Join the community and watch the distribution evolve in real time: https://discord.gg/tUyGDDz8Kt
• Share feedback and help us shape the product.

See you on Citrea.