The most acute risk for all robotics and hardware projects in 2026.

Critical minerals shortage and the weaponization of supply chains

China, which accounts for more than 90% of global rare earth processing capacity (rare earth metals such as dysprosium, terbium, and neodymium used in magnets for motors and robotic actuators), is expected to continue using export restrictions as a tool of influence.

Supply delays and price increases are already being observed.

In 2026, there is a risk of targeted restrictions on dual-use goods (robotics + defense applications).

An additional risk factor is gallium and germanium, which are critical for electronics and sensor systems.

I have known this industry well from practical experience since the 2000s at the Solikamsk Magnesium Plant.

This is especially critical for companies developing humanoid and industrial robots such as Skild AI, Figure AI, and Apptronik. It may result in production delays and cost increases of 30–100% or more.

For Anduril Industries, additional constraints may arise from export control regimes and dependence on Chinese supply bottlenecks.

Russian projects, including New Diamond Technology, may face indirect impact through global markets and equipment availability.

Companies rarely disclose the true depth of their dependency on suppliers and processors in public reporting.

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