China’s Private Warning Changes Everything for Russia

Leaked Beijing talks and crumbling internal infrastructure reveal how Putin’s prolonged war is destroying Russia from within

China’s Private Warning to Russia Credit: AI-generated image by ChatGPT / OpenAI

China is now using much stronger language about Russia’s war privately than in the past. Until now, China has publicly avoided directly criticizing Russia.

According to a recent Financial Times report, during talks in Beijing, Xi Jinping told Trump that the Kremlin might regret its decision to launch a full-scale attack on Ukraine.

One major reason for this is the long duration of the war. Russia had probably thought that Ukraine would break quickly and the West would not stay united for long. But even after four years, the war has not ended.

Ukraine is still fighting, Western aid continues, and Ukraine has increased drone attacks deep inside Russia. Russian military bases, oil facilities, airbases, and industrial centers are no longer considered as safe as before.

The Trump administration’s official fact sheet after the Beijing summit didn’t mention this talk about Putin or the Ukraine war at all.

It looks like both sides just wanted to keep such a sensitive conversation out of the public eye.

Sources say that Xi Jinping had previously held direct and blunt talks with US President Joe Biden several times, but he had never reviewed Putin’s decision in such sharp or clear words as he did in front of Donald Trump.

Appeal to build schools

Although this incident may seem small on its own, its political significance is huge.

Recently, Russian citizens in Irkutsk Oblast (located in eastern Siberia) urged Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to appeal to Xi Jinping to build schools in their area.

Image Source: Telegram channel Beware the news (Осторожно, новости)

The request has become a symbol of Russia’s internal weakness and growing dependence on China.

According to local people, the condition of schools in the Irkutsk region has become extremely bad. Existing schools are handling far more children than their capacity.

Around 2,000 children from the Berezovoi area have to travel to settlements like Markova and Lugovoe for studies.

At the Markova school, the number of students has remained almost double its capacity since 2022.

This means children are studying in overcrowded classrooms, pressure on teachers is increasing, and the quality of education is being affected.

Most seriously, local residents say there is no money in the budget to build new schools. This is shocking because Russia presents itself as a great power, is spending billions of dollars on war, is running big infrastructure projects in Moscow, and also invests abroad to maintain political influence. Yet, it appears unable to build schools for children in its own remote areas.

I have mentioned many times in my articles that in Russia, the condition is somewhat good only in two cities — Moscow and Saint Petersburg. The rest of the remote areas are just a means for it to earn money (from oil).

This case also connects to the bigger story of Russia-China relations, in which Russia is slowly becoming dependent on China economically, technologically, and now even symbolically.

Earlier, Russia was selling cheap oil, gas, gold, and resources to China. Then dependence on the Chinese yuan, Chinese technology, and Chinese goods increased.

Now, if Russian citizens start looking towards China even for local development, it shows that China’s influence is no longer limited only to trade.

Amid all this, there is another report that Russian military hospitals have become unable to handle the heavy rush of soldiers wounded in the war against Ukraine.

Even if the Russian government does not give the correct figures of its soldiers killed or wounded in the war, this report proves that the number of wounded is so terrible that Russia’s special military hospitals are completely full.

Hospitals for ordinary Russian citizens are being taken over to treat soldiers.

Maternity homes for pregnant women and special clinics for seriously ill children and patients are being closed and handed over to the army.

The situation is such that even after serious operations, ordinary Russian citizens are being sent away from hospitals because beds are reserved for “SVO soldiers”.

The behavior of these soldiers returning from the battlefield is very bad in hospitals. They are heavily drinking inside hospitals, creating disturbances, and not following the orders of medical staff.

The summer season is going to be very important

In the war zone, the direction of the war has steadily turned against Russia in recent months.

The Ukrainian army has been highly effective at stopping the actions of the much larger Russian military, gaining a remarkable tactical and technical advantage.

Russia still has a large army in terms of numbers, but numbers alone are no longer proving decisive.

The Ukrainian army has slowed down the pace of Russian attacks on many fronts and has also gained tactical and technical advantage in some areas.

This does not mean that the war will end immediately in Ukraine’s favor, but it certainly shows that Russia’s old strategy is no longer as effective as before.

According to The Wall Street Journal, this coming summer, it may become clear whether Ukraine can turn its local successes into a big strategic breakthrough or not.

At present, Ukraine is damaging Russian logistics, command posts, and rear military infrastructure in some areas, but there is a big difference between local success and large-scale strategic success.

Russia’s position is certainly becoming weaker, but not yet so bad that Vladimir Putin is forced to abandon or change his war goals. Russia still has the capacity to endure a long war, even if the cost is very high.

According to military analyst Franz-Stephan Gadi, even if Ukraine appears somewhat stronger today, war does not always move in a straight line. War is cyclical.

At one time, one side gains an advantage with new technology or strategy, then the other side tries to find an answer to it.

So today’s biggest question is whether Russia will be able to find an effective answer to Ukraine’s technical and tactical improvements or not.

In 2026, the Russian army’s pace of advance is reported to be the slowest compared to the last two years.

This is a serious sign for Russia, because despite such slow progress, it is suffering heavy losses. According to analysts, around 35,000 Russian soldiers are being killed or wounded every month.

Recent Ukrainian drone attacks on Moscow and the Moscow region have sent a serious message to the Kremlin.

Now the war is no longer limited to Ukrainian land or the border of Russian areas. Ukraine is now showing the ability to attack those parts of Russia that were earlier considered quite safe.

Owen Matthews wrote in The Telegraph that these attacks have forced the Russian power system to think that if Ukraine increases the scale of such attacks, domestic instability may also increase.

Russian politician Dmitry Rogozin also admitted that Ukraine will continue to find weaknesses in Russian air defense.

He said that the number of attacks will increase and Ukraine will keep changing its routes and strategies.

This statement is important because it shows that even within Russia, some people understand that Ukraine’s drone strategy is not stable but is continuously evolving.

But on the other hand, Putin’s public language still does not appear to be about compromise. After the 9 May parade, he only said that the war “is moving towards the end”, but added that “a lot of preparatory work” is still left.

The present-day Russian political system is increasingly similar in character to Nazi Germany rather than the former USSR.

In other words, today, power does not rely upon institutions, but instead relies upon a culture of fear, the security agencies, and an individual leader’s reputation and authority.

A group headed by Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration Sergey Kiriyenko is preparing various hypothetical models of post-war Russia.

Therefore, at least some within the Kremlin may have begun to think as early as now about how they will justify stopping the war to the public.

Iran War

Very important news has emerged regarding a possible nuclear deal between Iran and America. According to reports, Iran is offering to hand over about 400 kilograms of enriched uranium to Russia as part of this deal.

At first glance, this step may look like Tehran is ready to step back from its nuclear program and reduce international pressure.

But looking deeper, it may not just be a matter of removing nuclear material but also a very clever diplomatic move.

Iran would like to show the world that it is in control of its nuclear program and has a true commitment to a negotiated agreement with the United States.

The removal of 400 kilograms of enriched uranium from Iran may provide the opportunity for Western nations to perceive Iran as being off track to build nuclear weapons.

Removing uranium could lead to easing of sanctions against Iran; relief for its economic situation, and/or improvement of its international relations.

But the real question is why this uranium is being given to Russia. If this material were destroyed or kept under the supervision of an international body, it would be different. But handing it over to Russia could be a kind of safe route for Iran.

Iran is showing the international community that it has removed enriched uranium from Iran; however, it will store the enriched uranium at another nation whose political support may be beneficial in the future.

Iran spent hundreds of millions of dollars to process (and prepare for transport) 400 kg of enriched uranium. The total estimated cost of the Iranian nuclear development program was stated to be over $30 billion.