An Unusual Bet Has Everyone Asking What’s Next for Putin

Vladimir Putin is going through one of the most difficult — perhaps the most difficult — periods of his entire 22 years (14 of them consecutive) as Russia’s president.

I don’t say that lightly. And neither, apparently, does the mysterious gambler who just wagered $400,000 on Putin’s downfall.

Pressure has mounted significantly in recent months. Since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and through to the end of 2025, Ukraine has learned, in the most painful way possible, the lessons it needed to learn and has now gone onto the offensive.

You’ve seen the headlines. Strikes have hit Moscow and its surrounding areas, close to the Kremlin, as well as St Petersburg and Crimea. Critical energy infrastructure has gone up in flames, energy production has ground to a halt, and motorists like you have been queuing at filling stations in a bid to refuel before supplies run out.

At the same time, Putin has acknowledged the difficulties, admitted the severity of Russia’s energy problems and sent signals to Washington — preoccupied with Iran — urging it to return to the negotiating table.

Questions over the resilience of the 74-year-old Russian president are growing louder, and his political future now appears to be attracting the attention of the gambling world as well.

The $400,000 Question

Let me tell you about this bet, because it’s extraordinary. Against this backdrop, an anonymous user is reported to have wagered $400,000 on the cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket, predicting that Vladimir Putin will no longer be Russia’s president by the end of 2026 .

The bet, first reported by NBC News, was placed by an anonymous Polymarket account using the username “ZnotluvuiSamez” and displaying the Ukrainian flag as its profile picture . I don’t think I need to tell you what that signals about his intentions.

The user has placed numerous bets relating to Russia and Ukraine, but by far the largest is worth $409,000, backing the “Yes” option on the question: “Will Putin be removed from the presidency of Russia by 31 December 2026?” .

The latest wager alone amounted to $50,000 and was placed early on Thursday morning .

Here’s the truly remarkable part: the bet runs counter to prevailing market sentiment, with traders assigning only a 12% probability that Putin will lose the Russian presidency before 2030 despite current developments . Yes, you read that right — 12%.

According to NBC News, the mysterious bettor could win as much as $2.5 million if the prediction proves correct .

The user’s second-largest wager, worth $61,000, predicts that Ukraine will retake Crimea by the end of the year — another outcome that the market currently prices at just a 12% probability .

The mysterious bettor appears to have joined Polymarket in April this year, while the linked X account contains no posts .

Now, you might be thinking: “It’s just a bet. People gamble on crazy things all the time.” And you’d be right. But I think it’s worth paying attention to what this bet represents — the growing perception, even in the gambling world, that Putin’s grip on power is not as secure as it once was.

Forbes Weighs In

But here’s the thing: it’s not just anonymous gamblers. According to Forbes, Putin is heading towards his downfall .

Putin is facing existential challenges on multiple fronts. The current state of the war is becoming increasingly damaging for the Kremlin, undermining the Russian president’s legitimacy. At the same time, domestic discontent is growing, as illustrated by the viral video of a Russian military blogger warning of a mutiny .

Public anger is mounting over forced mobilisation and widespread shortages, while historical parallels with previous regime changes triggered by failed wars are once again coming to the fore. Elites, increasingly fearful for their own safety, could turn against him, even raising the prospect of an internal confrontation between Putin’s own security forces .

In its analysis, Forbes outlines scenarios for Putin’s downfall ranging from a swift assassination to a show trial, with possible catalysts including further Ukrainian attacks, internal unrest or China withdrawing its support. The publication predicts that Putin could fall within the next three years .

I want you to think about that. A mainstream Western publication is seriously laying out scenarios for how a Russian leader might be removed from power. That’s not something you see every day.

The Critical Situation

Putin is in a critical position on several fronts. Following months of sustained Ukrainian drone strikes, Crimea has been almost completely cut off from fuel supplies. Images showing traffic queues stretching for miles as people attempt to leave the peninsula during the height of the tourist season present an especially damaging picture for Moscow .

Russia now has one remaining key supply route: the Kerch Bridge, a structure of enormous symbolic importance that has repeatedly come under attack but, for now, remains standing. Fuel tankers crossing the bridge are considered highly vulnerable targets, as a successful strike could trigger a massive explosion. According to sources within Ukraine’s intelligence services, this possibility is being actively considered .

The military campaign launched by Moscow in Ukraine four and a half years ago may increasingly come to be seen as a disaster. Putin cannot escape the political damage, and once he is no longer able to control the negative images circulating everywhere, the consequences multiply and the countdown begins .

Viral Videos and a Veteran’s Threats

A few days ago, Russian military blogger Alexander Lunin, a veteran of the invasion of Ukraine, released a video warning of a mutiny and calling for a personal televised meeting with Putin .

He claimed senior figures had revealed secrets to him that he needed to pass directly to the Russian president. The video attracted around 11 million views .

He later released a second, more conciliatory video. However, this was followed by another video featuring a group of soldiers backing him and threatening to turn their weapons against officers whom they accused of abusing them .

Lunin’s fate was, in all likelihood, sealed the moment he chose to publish those videos. He has since been arrested and is now in prison . Nevertheless, the case has revived vivid memories of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mutiny .

Lunin’s message was stark. He claimed that “dozens, hundreds, thousands of our soldiers are rotting in [pits], thrown there by their own commanders. Just sitting, rotting, being tortured and abused by what their own ranks call the Gestapo. Why? For refusing to follow idiotic, suicidal orders” .

“Vladimir Vladimirovich, pay attention to this, invite me to see you,” he said. “If I don’t come to the Kremlin in the near future and speak, live, alongside you, the army will turn its weapons against the Kremlin” .

That’s not the kind of message you can ignore.

Meanwhile, videos of Ukrainian strikes on military installations, energy infrastructure and fuel facilities near Moscow, as well as in more remote parts of Russia, continue to circulate widely. At the same time, images are spreading of female influencers complaining that they cannot find fuel for their cars, alongside videos allegedly showing men being forcibly conscripted into the Russian military .

Historical Parallels

As Forbes notes in its analysis, history shows that regime change and the collapse of Russian imperial power occurred twice over the past century as a direct result of disastrous wars: the First World War and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan .

As pressure on Putin intensifies, the elites surrounding him are increasingly focused on their own survival and are using figures such as Lunin to voice their fears. Society, for its part, may ultimately reach only one of two conclusions: either Putin is personally responsible, or those around him are isolating him from reality and preventing him from putting matters right .

The question is: which narrative will win?

The “Ceaușescu Scenario” and the Prospect of a Show Trial

How Putin’s rule comes to an end will depend on what those who move against him hope to achieve.

According to Forbes, a swift assassination followed by a struggle for power would eliminate the risk of retaliation from his loyalists, but it would remove another possible option: a staged show trial in which Putin would shoulder all responsibility for the failures of his rule. Such an outcome would allow the existing system and the remaining elites to preserve their positions .

This could be described as the “Ceaușescu scenario”, referring to the Cold War-era Romanian dictator who was swiftly executed alongside his wife by the military, while many figures from the old regime retained influential roles within the new system .

I think the fact that this is even being discussed tells you everything you need to know about the current state of the Russian regime.

The Mystery of Sergei Ivanov

Such scenarios have gained additional significance following the recent mysterious death of Sergei Ivanov, a long-time ally and friend of Putin, on 26 June at the age of 73 .

Ivanov had long been regarded as a possible successor to Putin. He was one of the few figures at the highest levels of power with sufficient influence to criticise the president from time to time .

The Kremlin announced his death quickly but did not disclose the cause. Ivanov, who had known Putin since the 1970s, had periodically stepped away from official positions of power but remained well connected within the FSB .

“Such incidents create problems for Putin. When potential rivals disappear, others may conclude that they too are at risk and choose to act against him before it is too late,” Forbes wrote .

Ivanov’s career had paralleled Putin’s for decades. They worked together in the KGB, and in 2000, Putin famously said: “Whom do I trust? Sergei Ivanov… There is such a thing as a comrade’s shoulder. That is the feeling I get with Ivanov” .

But their relationship soured. According to sources, Putin never seriously considered Ivanov as a successor because “he believed Sergei would not give power back to him” .

Ivanov was ultimately pushed into a minor role as an ecology envoy, a post he finally left in February 2026 . Two months later, he was dead.

What Could Trigger the Fall?

With paranoia reportedly growing around Putin, almost anything could trigger a chain of events: spectacular new Ukrainian strikes on Moscow, food shortages, separatist uprisings in regions such as Tatarstan, Bashkortostan or Chechnya, or a Ukrainian operation in Crimea .

China’s actions also remain an important factor. If Beijing decides that Putin’s weakening as a leader threatens its own interests, it could trigger his fall in various ways, including by ending military aid or invading Siberia .

“Putin’s days are numbered,” Forbes concludes. “If this trend continues or worsens, he will likely be overthrown within three years” .

What the Market Thinks

On Polymarket, the “Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?” contract has been trading with significant volume. As of early July, total matched volume stood at over $16 million . The market assigns the “Yes” outcome an implied probability of around 9.5% to 11.5%, depending on when you check .

That’s actually up from where it was — the Yes odds have risen from 8.5% to 11.5% following recent headlines . It shows that traders are slowly starting to price in more risk of a leadership change.

But let’s be honest — 90% of the market still believes Putin will remain in power through 2026. The conventional wisdom is that he’s too entrenched, too paranoid, too well-protected to be removed by any means short of death.

Signs of Fatigue

The episode with Lunin came amid growing signs of fatigue among Russians over the war, which Western intelligence agencies estimate has killed more than half a million Russian soldiers .

In the fifth year of a full-scale invasion that Putin expected would bring Ukraine to its knees within weeks, there is increasingly public debate among rival camps in the elite about whether to halt the fighting or escalate. Tension over the war is compounded by deepening economic troubles, and recent polls have shown a decline in Putin’s approval ratings .

At the same time, I keep coming back to that viral video. The comparison to Prigozhin’s mutiny is impossible to ignore. That was almost exactly three years ago, and it was seen as the biggest challenge to Putin over a quarter-century in power . Two months after he abruptly called off the advance, Prigozhin was killed in a plane explosion that is widely believed to have been an assassination .

And now Lunin — a military blogger, not a Wagner warlord — has made similar threats. He wasn’t rallying troops to march on Moscow. He was just talking. And within days, he was arrested.

But the fact that his video got 11 million views tells you something. The fact that 11 million Russians watched a man threaten the army would mutiny against the Kremlin tells you there’s an audience for that message.

Why This Matters for You

You and I are watching this unfold in real-time. And I think we need to think about what it means.

If Putin falls, what comes next? Will Russia descend into chaos? Will there be a power struggle between security forces that turns violent? Will the war in Ukraine escalate or collapse?

These are not academic questions. They affect the entire world — energy markets, food supplies, geopolitical stability.

The gasoline crisis you’ve been dealing with at the pump is not just an inconvenience. It’s a symptom of a deeper rot. The fact that a country that sits on some of the largest oil reserves in the world is importing fuel from Belarus and Kazakhstan and India is not a supply chain problem — it’s a strategic failure of historic proportions.

And when a leader presides over a strategic failure that affects your daily life, when the television tells you everything is fine but you’re sitting in a two-hour line for petrol, when a military blogger can get 11 million views by threatening a mutiny… that’s when people start to ask questions.

The Elite’s Fear

The elites are scared, too. And scared elites are dangerous — both to themselves and to the regime they serve.

As pressure on Putin intensifies, the elites are increasingly focused on their own survival. They use figures like Lunin to voice their fears . They’re worried about who might be next. When the person who was once considered your potential successor mysteriously dies, and you don’t disclose the cause… that creates a certain atmosphere.

One former Central Bank official noted that Ivanov’s death closely mirrors the aging inner circle of Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev, whose top officials all began dying off at a similar age right before the Soviet system collapsed .

The Bottom Line

Putin’s days, Forbes concludes, are numbered, and if the current trajectory continues — or deteriorates further — he could be overthrown within the next three years .

Whether that’s wishful thinking from a Western publication or a genuine assessment of the situation, I can’t say for certain. But I think it’s worth paying attention to.

The signs are there. The fuel shortages, the military infighting, the mysterious deaths, the plummeting approval ratings, the bets on his downfall. These are not isolated incidents. They are data points in a larger picture of a regime under unprecedented pressure.

The war in Ukraine was supposed to be a quick victory that would boost Putin’s popularity and secure his place in history. Instead, it has become a grinding disaster that has exposed the weaknesses of Russia’s military, devastated its economy, and turned its leader into an object of geopolitical speculation and — yes — gambling.

Putin might survive 2026. He might even survive 2030. But the fact that a $400,000 bet on his downfall is not seen as completely insane tells you that something has fundamentally changed .