Rookies but I can’t even rank r2, r3, r4…

Talking rookies here man and it’s just so crazy to me how round 2 sees an absolutely preposterous drop off in talent. In my (p1) pre-draft… (p2)rankings… I thought Jerm Love was 101 and Fernando Mendoza was 102. Although this is a bit controversial, I’m not moving off of Menzo in SF at 2. Tyson remains my WR1 & 103 after landing in a very underrated spot (NOLA) and Tate remains my 104 after going 4th overall. 105 is another easy one for me with Lemon landing in Philly and 106 is going to be another one where I keep my pre-draft rank with my guy KC going to CLE. Concepcion scares me more in CLE; however, it’s not like there isn’t a bear case. Monken’s offense could scheme up touches for KC and I think his year 1 outlook (while sort of grim) isn’t entirely cooked because of the “easy stuff” I anticipate. Scott Barrett said the landing spot is “elite” & KC will get hella screens. I don’t buy that entirely; however, we can expect the situation to improve next year & this year might be aight.

Realistically, I see this as a 1–4–1, top 6; however, I’m going to just call this tier a top 6 and call it a day. The 107 is incredibly sad; however, I’m going to toss in Jadarian Price — reluctantly as hell! Scott Barrett also said, “upside is all that matters” (or something like that) & while I could pushback a lil on that ideology, I’m going to have to make the upside case for Price at 7. I’ve articulated this through hundreds of messages, and hours of podcasting (over the course of the last 4 months): Price has upside. The goat Akash mentioned something about the idea that we can’t view lack of production as a “mystery box”. I agree and take production at face value to some degree. The bear case for price is easier than the bull case; however, the bull case is bolstered by the idea that if the NFL thought so highly of Price, they must have something in mind.

Price is a guy with no production, relatively speaking. His production profile involves less touches than Josh Jacobs & not even 300 total carries throughout his career. Comps are so hard because Jacobs caught passes more naturally & the glaring thing is that he’s so much heavier (BMI bros in shambles). Kenyan Drake is a better comp, and while a dog, never exceeded 1k rush yards in the pros. Price has a chance to clear 1k on the ground this season, but it doesn’t stop there… or does it? Naturally, I wouldn’t expect a progression from a guy that didn’t catch passes at an elite rate (or at a rate, period). Price is nice, though, and a dynamic kick returner. We can hope the film bros are right in their assessment that he catches passes naturally, but the reason I might take the film grinders seriously is because he’s just so dynamic between his efficiency and return ability. I obviously think there truly is a chance he develops pass catching as a part of his fantasy potential at the next level, but ultimately that doesn’t have to happen for him to be successful. The next upside case is more straightforward: Price has a nose for the endzone. Normally the corniest thing in the fantasy space to say, Price literally does have a nose for TDs. JD Price is moving differently near the goal line, and his 203 LBS weight is simply egregiously low for the guy we saw scoring every single week damn near. Charbs was a demon at the goal line, but Price is just as much of a demon — even at the lower than expected weight. If I wanted to spin the weight positively, it might say it’s tough to cover the shifty 200 pound dude in space as a pass catcher, although that’s sort of grasping at straws.

The idea that Price is a demon on the ground shouldn’t be a debate. You can question his ability to punch it in for SEA (& with their funky RB usage, that is a valid concern). You can question his ability to make a rare pass catching development (more valid of a concern). I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect Price to be a good 2 down runner & goal line back (or at least getting most of those reps) day 1. Obviously, this isn’t a certainty, but Price projects imo to be a good runner and goal line back (especially in the very short term without Charbs) at the very least. Price might do enough off that to be relevant day 1 fantasy wise, and that’s without expecting any pass catching development (which would be very outlier-ish, just to be clear). At a minimum, there is context behind the Price pass catching that makes me believe he could be better than his absolutely abysmal college target share indicates. Again — in the most likely world where Price succeeds — he doesn’t need to do anything super outlier-ish. Price with some goal line work & a lot of the early down work “will do”. I do believe there is a special upside if the stars align for him, though, and this upside is unique to a prospect like Price. I could literally never write enough about the Price projection. He’s uber intriguing but is a severely flawed prospect at the end of the day. My comp for him is RB Jaylen Waddle. Iykyk man that’s an incomplete production profile that got crazy high DC and has been good in the league. Price, I don’t expect to be “good” per say. Rather, I’d expect merely OK production (RB25–30 this szn with a chance to flip after a decent szn for more), but in this weak draft class I’m taking ok with the outside (outlier af) shot at special since a lot of guys can’t offer either of those projections (true upside & a reasonable floor out the gate y1). Price is a nuanced discussion better suited for a conversational presentation.

108 is where it gets even uglier, but I’m going to take the Idaho Falls, Idaho legend: Kenyon Sadiq. I hate the idea of the Jets eating up two promising fantasy options; however, I am going to sell myself on the Sadiq case here for the 108. At the 109, I’m going to throw in Ty Simpson here for SF/ 2QB. Ty has huge upside here as the heir apparent to Staff. Super funky vibes when he was drafted where it looks like McVay got backdoored, but Simpson brings arguably higher upside than anyone in this class (Mendoza, Love, included). Generally not a big fan of his, but argue with a wall if you think this guy doesn’t possess insane 2 QB upside. 110 is Stowers for me. Eli got the high upside landing spot too, similar to Simpson. As Goedert flees town, Stowers will be next in line. His year 1 upside is arguably higher than Sadiq as he is the older and more obvious pass catcher of the two; however, Dallas Goedert will cap the ceiling in year 1 (even if the two men do drastically different things on the field). Omar Cooper is a sad case because despite getting r1 capital, I just can’t get excited. The profile for Cooper Jr is sort of underwhelming. Despite the baby arms, I like size. I like the YAC ability at that size, too; however, the production profile as a whole is underwhelming. He narrowly beats out Denzel Boston for the 111. To end r1, my 112 is the aforementioned Boston. The case is similar for Boston, as it is for Cooper Jr.: these two guys can hoop & got respectable DC to shit franchises — yet there are certainly things to like as well as holes in both profiles.

Omar Cooper is someone I’m scared to death of. He is talented, but the profile doesn’t scream r1 to me. He had a good year, but ~20% of his production came vs the fighting Larry Birds (ISU SYCAMORES) & he hasn’t ever led his team in target share. Cooper follows up his respectable jr szn with a campaign that clears 1k scrimmage yards en route to the natty. Omar is hard to bring down & is going to be a problem when he has the ball; however, I don’t know who is getting him the ball this szn. Geno Smith and Cade Klubnik (likely more Geno) appear to be the two dudes throwing him the ball this year, but the situation could improve in 2027. The upside for Cooper is immense as someone who gets peppered with targets and can make work himself after the catch, but I can’t seem to rank him higher than 10 or 11. Denzel Boston is honestly locked into the 112 here as the last guy with legit obtainable upside if stuff breaks their way. Everyone from here on out is really a long shot to hit.

YOU SHOULD NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE PAST THIS POINT:

112 usually has some aura, yet I’m not inspired by either of the last two picks. In fact, all of Simpson, Cooper Jr., Boston, even Stowers and Sadiq are problematic as FRPs in dynasty. Only Price and KC mid 1st feel like actual FRPs, and that spells trouble for the deeper parts of the draft. The 201 comes next and I’m having a hard time not putting Antonio Williams here; however, I’m not even going to linearly rank these guys since I find the next 15–30 players all in a similar tier. The weaker back half of the first ends and what is left is a 2nd round that has the quality of the usual third round rookie picks. Germie Bernard, Drew Allar, and company all have cases as high as the first pick of the second round; however, I’m sticking my neck out for “A Will” as the top guy if I have a gun to my head (once again, I don’t want to rank this tier honestly). An early producer, Williams has some juice and draws a favorable comparison to one Jayden Reed.

Germie Bernard was a prospect I liked a lot (even more than Williams) and the Steelers need(ed) a someone to fill their long-term slot role. I have more faith in the Commanders offensive environment; however, Bernard as the slot in PIT would yield decent volume. I just worry Michael Pittman mogs him early in his career. Bernard should clear a Roman Wilson type, but 27’ production is a huge ??? (question mark!!). If I had to rank the guys past r1, I would (probably!) slot these two WRs in as the 13th and 14th picks. It’s painful here in r2 like I said and I don’t want to rank anyone highly (these picks feel like third rounders in a stronger rookie class, as stated previously). Gun to head and I will very reluctantly slide in Carson Beck as the 15th guy & will add the note that as soon as he starts and sees a value spike, I would sell!!! I don’t believe in him long term. Allar is a guy I have more faith in long term, but is far from guaranteed playing time. 201–204 is so weak comparatively vs previous (and future) years, yet— at this point — it’s these dudes I would snag at the top of r2; however, I’m talking myself into Skyler Bell at 205, and could argue even before then. Bell was a monster producer and went to the most intriguing spot a WR possibly could. In Buffalo, Bell could contribute day 1 & being attached to Joshy is uber nice. It just sucks to see him go in the 4th round because that dampens the hype and stifles the chance that he ever gets real opportunities.

I ranked those 5 guys just because I had to sort of stick my neck out, but I just don’t have an ounce of conviction in the 2nd this year. My biggest advice is to trade the mid and early 2s for later 2s or even early 3s. The quality of player 10, 15 picks down the board is very similar to the guys at the top of the 2nd here. 206 is another “hold your nose” moment, because nobody sticks out as an obvious pick in r2 (hence why I advise trading down if you can gain anything of value). I think Chris Bell & Kaytron Allen both have as good a case as Stribling here, but they are all butt (to a certain degree). Allen and Bell are great prospects, but the D(raft)C(apital) was lacking (especially for Kaytron as Washington DC didn’t spend high DC on him). For as good of a situation Kaytron was put in, Chris Bell has equally concerning questions around his landing spot. I can see the bull case for Bell: he’s more talented than the DC indicates, has little competition for targets, and isn’t going to be relied on in y1 anyways so the lackluster situation should be improved by the time you should expect him to be a producer (27’ and beyond). It’s tough for me, though, since I want to put big Jonah Coleman ahead of all these fools. Coleman (as does everyone in the second round, honestly) has a decent enough case to be the last pick of the first round. Coleman spells trouble for RJ Harvey; however, Jonah projects more as the Dobbins replacement if I had to guess. The upside is absolutely there, but it’s tough to project much initially for big Jonah. Justin Joly goes to DEN and immediately becomes an intriguing guy in that receiving room too, while we are talking about Denver.

There are just too many guys in this range. All the way from the aforementioned Antonio Williams down to (maybe even) Cade Klubnik, there are a myriad of options in the second or third round of the rookie draft, but many of them are uninspiring. Demond Claibourne landed with a great situation in Minnesota; however, didn’t get great DC. I haven’t even mentioned Ted Hurst, Bryce Lance (both in good long term spots), but I do want to shout out Malachi Fields who has a chance to produce immediately in NY with the Giants as a power forward (?!?!?!?). I can’t articulate this enough: the 2nd round (& part of the third) is flat this year in rookie drafts. Trade back and keep trading back if there is someone you want at the 3/4 turn.

Roughly in this order, I want these guys as the next 12:

Antonio Williams,

Germie Bernard,

Skyler Bell,

Drew Allar,

Carson Beck,

Jonah Coleman,

Kaytron Allen,

De’Zhaun Stribling

Chris Brazelle,

Chris Bell,

Malachi Fields,

Jakobi Lane,

Nick Singleton,

There is so much to say, but the intriguing names don’t stop after the next 12 guys. Hate all you want, but there is a chance that Cade Klubnik gets starts this year, or next. He is the next guy I’d like to highlight. Three more guys I want to mention are Ted Hurst, Bryce Lance, and Justin Joly. There is an upside case for all of them. Brenen Thompson going to LAC makes me excited, and I’m going to still be aggressive to get Elijah Surratt as someone who got lackluster DC, but sports elite production and should have a good chance to carve out a role in BAL. Someone that has upside & I’m maybe lower on than I should be is:

Zachariah Branch (potential screen merchant, upside twitchy athlete),

Kaelon Black (has upside in SF),

The aforementioned Bryce Lance could eat in NOLA.

As could the aforementioned Demond Claibourne!

Rounding out the third round still has names worthy of consideration like Caleb Douglass (Surprising DC) & Mike Washington (fall from grace; however, doesn’t face any competition for touches outside of Jeanty).

Moving past pick 36, there are still some decent guys that could make noise in fantasy. There are a bunch of TEs I want to highlight:

Eli Raridon

Max Klare,

Oscar Delp,

Tanner Kozial,

All of these guys are good enough to be considered in R2, but I wouldn’t fault your league for letting them slide since there isn’t an obvious answer for anybody after r1.

Emmett Johnson has serious upside in KC and putting him in r2 isn’t laughable to me; however, shoving him all the way down into r3 or even r4 is a testament to the depth of this seemingly terrible class. While the talent in the 8–20 range of this draft is weak sauce, the tier from the 15th best player to the 35th best one is relatively flat. You can take advantage of it by picking off the players in this tier that fall. There is a world where the top of the 2nd round picks produce similarly to the mid-third rounders. That shouldn’t be possible in a normal draft, but this isn’t a normal rookie class! This said, the picks around the ¾ turn to me really aren’t that awful. I’m actively moving down in the second for either vets or picks later in this tier.

Emmett’s teammate, WR Cyrus Allen, has juice and upside in KC. RB/WR Hybrid Adam Randall has juice. Seth McGowan is a demon, Eli Raridon is everyone’s fav dart throw and so is the other Eli and other hybrid player in this class: Eli Heidenreich. While these guys are far from sure things (and all likely have less than a 10 % chance to “hit”), I would love to stash these guys on my bench for a lil if I had the roster room. As the list goes on, I feel less confident, but Nussmeier has a lil juice, Kevin Coleman has juice + potential opportunity. Zavion Thomas was someone I liked pre-draft & got way higher DC than expected in Chi. Jadyn Ott is a demon & landed in KC (watch out, Emmett); however, might not make the team so he’s more of a UDFA without any promise for a real role imo. Deion Burks is another fav that went to Indy as (almost) Mr. irrelevant. I’d be remiss not to mention my demon J’Mari Taylor as well, an upside dart throw worthwhile imo.

The dudes in the previous paragraph are probably going to do nothing in the league (maybe one of the Eli’s can pan out?!). That in mind, there are some more guys worthy of consideration here: Desmond Reid, Kendrick Law, Terion Stewart (RIP my goat), Malik Benson, Reggie Virgil, Le’Veon Moss, CJ Daniels, Roman Hemby, Taylen Green, Sam Roush, Robert Henry (my goat x2). While these guys probably do nothing, they round out the class and maybe one of them can pan out. The last guy I would consider in in r2 or 3 is one of my fav pass catching TEs: Justin Joly. He is worthwhile IMO, but these guys aren’t:

Matthew Hibner,

Jack Endries,

Marlin Klein,

Michael Trigg,

Joe Royer,

Will Kacramarek,

Nate Boerkircher,

Dallen Bentley,

Gotta love the blocking TEs that don’t do much in college, amirite? Klein could do something if all breaks his way, apparently, he was playing hurt and has decent movement skills should he be healthy as a rook. Gone ahead and trade back in r2 my fellow ffballers, the grass sure is greener when you do so in this legendarily weak-at-the-top rookie class.