David’s Commentary 21st March 2026

Precious Metals Are Approaching Fire-Sale Opportunities

Technical oversold conditions across precious metals, and particularly the miners, are now moving into extreme territory.

Gold, in particular, has an uncanny ability of acting as a forward indicator ( the proverbial ‘canary in the coal mine’ ), not just for forward inflation (monetary debasement), but for funding stress , sovereign deficits, debt saturation, geopolitical risk, and outright systemic strain.

So when gold is trading roughly US$1,100 below its January 2026 highs , the question is obvious:

What is it telling us now?

In my view, this is clearly not a “gold is broken” signal . It is the market screaming something far more important: we are witnessing an extreme liquidation event , a liquidity flush, and those events usually point to one thing:

the world is walking into or more accurately already experiencing a funding and liquidity crisis.

That is deeply alarming for the global economy.

Let’s be clear about what is happening mechanically. Everything is being sold, more or less together. That is not “rational re-pricing.” That is forced selling . It happens when leverage meets volatility, margins get raised, risk limits get hit, and positions must be reduced to raise cash, usually US dollars .

Not because it’s the “right” decision.

Because contracts demand it.

This is what liquidity crises look like: indiscriminate selling, correlation goes to one, and the dash for dollars becomes the default behaviour.

And when the system reaches this phase, my base case is that central banks ultimately respond the only way they can: funding support, balance-sheet expansion, liquidity facilities, call it what you like, money printing. I believe that is around the corner.

None of this changes the larger cycle. In fact, it reinforces it. The global conditions that pushed capital and central bank diversification into gold and precious metals have not improved, they have deteriorated.

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Silver: This Is Not a Secular Top — It’s a Reset in the Early Innings

Silver’s price behaviour has to be understood in historical context.

There is simply no precedent for any asset class spending decades in a multi-decade consolidation, in silver’s case, a 45-year base , only to rally for a mere two months and then be declared “finished” after a relatively modest move.

A base that large, combined with structural supply-demand stress and extreme undervaluation, typically produces a multi-hundred-percent move before anything resembling a secular top develops. A 500% to 1,000% advance is far more consistent with what such a long compression phase normally resolves into.

That is why I continue to view this as the very early stage of the cycle.

If silver revisits the breakout zone, even back toward US$50–55 , that is not a bearish signal in my framework. That is a high-quality wealth-building opportunity , the kind markets rarely offer in the early phase of a secular revaluation.

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Positioning: The Smart Money is Still Thinking “Higher”

Finally, it is worth noting what sophisticated options positioning is signalling.

We are seeing notable positioning in COMEX December 2026 gold calls around the US$15,000 strike , often paired with selling US$20,000 calls to reduce premium costs. If those structures are correct, they are not positioned for marginal upside, they are positioned for a very large repricing into late 2026.

And let me be very clear: gold does not need to reach US$15,000 for those positions to become highly profitable. A strong move higher into late summer alone can generate substantial gains.

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This is what late-cycle liquidity stress looks like. It is ugly, fast, and indiscriminate. But it tends to be the bridge between liquidation, and the next phase of policy response.

And that next phase, historically, is where precious metals reassert themselves with force.

Physical Precious Metals Are on Fire Sale — While China Vacuums Up Silver

China’s appetite for physical silver has exploded to an eight-year high at the start of 2026, with more than 790 tonnes imported in just two months (including a record ~ 470 tonnes in February ). This is not paper speculation, it’s real metal moving, driven by two powerful forces:

• Retail investors piling into silver bars as gold becomes increasingly unaffordable

• Solar manufacturers front-loading demand ahead of the April 1 policy change (solar consumes roughly 20% of global silver supply , and China dominates that sector)

The result is a widening divergence between physical reality and paper pricing :

• Local Chinese prices have been trading well above international benchmarks

• Premiums in the supply chain (via Hong Kong) reportedly reached as high as US$8/oz for large bars

• Exchange inventories in China keep falling , tightening psychology and availability

Meanwhile, London has stayed relatively orderly, not because demand is weak, but because supply has temporarily improved via prior inflows and ETF outflows. Yet the underlying message remains clear: visible global inventories are still low , and longer-dated lease rates remain elevated, a signal the market is still cautious about another squeeze.

Bottom line: while paper markets whip prices around, the physical market is doing the opposite, absorbing metal aggressively . When a market sells off while the largest buyer on earth is importing record tonnage, it doesn’t look like a top. It looks like a clearance sale in an asset that is being quietly cornered by real-world demand.