What If?

Adobe Stock image (AI-generated)

“Civilizations die from suicide, not by murder.” ~ Arnold Toynbee

What if you could foresee the future?

Would you want to?

Rounding the corner to more years than I ever thought I’d accumulate, I’m glad there’s no such thing as predicting the future with accuracy. Certainly not for individuals. No crystal balls, no tea leaves, no Tarot cards. Certainly, no one knows exactly what’s going to happen as the clock ticks ever so much faster every day.

No, thank you, I’d rather not know what’s coming for me personally.

Societies, cultures, and empires are another matter altogether, however.

Yes, I would like to know if the United States is headed for a great fall, like Humpty Dumpty, and couldn’t be put back together again.

Humpty’s fate is one suffered by empires over the centuries.

That’s why the study of history is so crucial. History may not repeat itself, but it sure can teach much-needed lessons.

Volubilis, Morocco, by Ondrej Bucek (Adobe Stock images)

Take Volubilis, a Roman site in Morocco. Abandoned in the 8th century, it outlasted its Roman masters by nearly 400 years. But at its height, with its triumphal arch, its basilica, and its mosaic-festooned villas inhabited by the very wealthy, who could have predicted the fall of Rome and the ensuing abandonment of Roman influence across its vast empire? Edward Gibbon wrote one of the first analyses of the demise of the Roman Empire in his 6-volume study, The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire (1776). [1]

Actually, these long-dead civilizations show that they have much in common. Societal shredding leads to collapse. What does this mean, societal shredding? [2]

The following boxes are checked as changes in the body politic and leadership signal collapse:

1. Ideological fixation and focus on national identity, creating an “Other” to hate.
2. Entertainment — in other words, “bread and circuses.” Education no longer a priority.
3. Political corruption. Lootable resources. Elite overproduction.
4. Ignoring public health.
5. Food and nutrition challenges.
6. Physical or economic expansion of hegemony — Lebensraum.
7. External, constant warfare.
8. Environmental stress

George Orwell touched on all these aspects in his prescient novel, *Nineteen Eighty-Four (1984)*.

Illustration by Jonathan Burton, for 1984

Hitler’s Germany checked all the boxes. (And Richard Evans’s *Third Reich Trilogy* shows just how.)

Now, Donald J. Trump’s United States is busy checking these boxes, too. Just look down that list and fill in the blanks. It’s all there, all done in our name, whether we want it or not.

So, the answer to my initial question, “What if you could see the future?”, appears to be clear and simple, unfortunately.

Unless we learn from history, we’re doomed to repeat it. [3]

Is Humpty Dumpty going to take that fall and shatter beyond repair? Or not?

I hope not, but I am afeared it’s true, if something doesn’t change fast.

[1] Imperial Rome lasted from 31 BC to AD 476. Its eastern empire, the Byzantine Empire, lasted until the 15th century AD when the Turks captured Constantinople.

[2] I am just summarizing here, as the literature on this topic is vast. George Orwell touched on many of these points, as did Luke Kemp in *Goliath’s Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse.*

[3] See also:

Norman Davies, *Vanished Kingdoms: The Rise and Fall of States and Nations*, 2012.

Jared Diamond, *Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed*, 2011.

Ibn Khaldun, *Muqaddimah*, 14th century.

Guy Middleton, *Understanding Collapse: Ancient History and Modern Myths*, 2017.

Timothy Snyder, “On Superpower Suicide,” Substack, May 9, 2026.

Oswald Spengler, *Decline of the West*, 1918–1922.

Arnold Toynbee, *A Study of History* (12 volumes), 1934–1961.