The Monday Trap: Why I Am Not Buying the Green Candle

There is a specific feeling on Monday mornings after a crash. You stare at the screen, hoping for relief. Today, the market gave us that relief. The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) opened with a bounce, trading up to 7,970.

It is tempting to click “Buy.” It feels like the worst is over. But in my personal trading journal, I have written in big letters: “Do not trust the first bounce.”

The Divergence Problem When I analyze the market today, I look for “confluence” — meaning all signals point in the same direction. Today, they do not.

• The Stock Market says “Recovery” (JCI Green).
• The Crypto Market says “Fear.” Bitcoin is trading down around $68,767. It has failed to hold the $70k level, let alone the $80k range we saw previously.
• The Currency says “Caution.” The Rupiah is hovering between 16,788 and 16,874 per Dollar. It hasn’t broken 16,900, but it certainly isn’t strengthening.

The $5,000 Signal Most importantly, Gold is shouting at us. It is trading firmly above $5,012. When Gold is at all-time highs, it means the big capital is hiding, not hunting.

My Personal Conclusion I believe today’s move in Jakarta is “technical resistance” — a temporary pause in selling, not a flood of new buying. With year-to-date foreign outflows hitting IDR 11 Trillion, the structural pressure remains down. So, I will let others chase the green candle today. I will stick to my system: Cash, Gold, and Patience.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are my own personal opinions and are for educational purposes only. This content does not constitute financial advice.