Playoff Round 1 Picks

He Can’t Guard Me Blog

After a regular season that might be remembered most for teams intentionally losing games, it’s time to put the tanking behind us and embrace some pure, ethical hoops. This post season seems as wide open as any year since the COVID bubble, but the real action really starts in round two.

The regular season has shaken out and it looks like there are a clear top 4 teams in both conferences. None of them are playing each other in the first round of the playoffs. The odds bear this out with the most likely upset in round one being the Hawks over the Knicks at +198. The most talented of the underdogs are Anthony Edwards and the Timberwolves, and their matchup with the Nuggets is by far the most enticing matchup of the first 10 days of the playoffs.

The odds of a chalk first round (with each of the Thunder, Spurs, Nuggets, Rockets, Pistons, Celtics, Knicks, and Cavs all advancing) is +272; higher than the most likely first round upset. It’s my pick for round 1.

Preview and reasoning below.

Let’s shake off the tanking stink and get ready for a great show.

Image Credit: Sports Illustrated

Nuggets 4–2 over Timberwolves

Don’t miss a minute of this series; every possession will have to potential for one of the two of the most exciting and entertaining players in the league to do something you’ve never seen before.

The Nuggets come into the playoffs on a 12-game winning streak, and Joker and Aaron Gordon seem to have gotten back to full strength over the course of the last month of the regular season. The Nuggets are healthy and better than they have ever been.

The Timberwolves run back the same team that we know is capable of winning a series against this Nuggets core, even when they have to play gave 7 on the road. But the Nuggets have improved their team significantly over the past two years around the periphery, while the Timberwolves look like they are just running it back with the core that has gotten them to the Western Conference Finals each of the last two years. Two of Minnesota’s best five players (Gobert and Randle) seem to have shown us what they are, and the one player who has significantly elevated his game this year (Jaden McDaniels) is coming off of a knee injury. The Nuggets’ additions of Tim Hardaway Jr. and Jonas Valančiūnas have paid off more than the Wolves’ additions of Rob Dillingham and recently Ayo Dosunmu.

Ant will think he is the best player in this series, and he and Jamal Murray will put on a bucket getting clinic. But at the end of the day Jokic is not going down in round 1 of these playoffs.

Image Credit: NBC News

Spurs 4–0 over Blazers

The single most exciting thing about these playoffs will be seeing what Victor Wembenyama looks like when the training wheels are off and it is time for him to show out against the most elite competition in the world.

The Spurs have the perfect team to shut down Portland and strangle their offense.

The Blazers have a solid young core paired with a good collection of veterans that have elevated their franchise and put themselves on a good course to become competitive over the next few years. But they are not cut out for this series.

The Blazers need Deni Avdija’s scoring to be competitive against good teams, and the Spurs have the perfect mix of defenders to keep him from breaking down their defense. Avdija’s scoring prowess comes from his size and strength which allow him to get close to the basket against undersized matchups. But the Spurs have the wing defenders to make that extremely difficult, and even when Avdia (and to a lesser extent Jrue Holiday) are able to get to the basket, Wemby is waiting. Drive and kick offense doesn’t work well when defenders don’t have to help off of drivers because an alien is lurking in the paint.

Image Credit: ESPN

Knicks 4–3 over Hawks

There needs to be some first round drama, and this series seems like the most likely source. Even without the full villain version of Trae Young wreaking havoc in the Garden, it is easy to picture an over-performing Hawks team with a coach who has found the right lineups pushing the Knicks out of their comfort zone. At the end of the day Brunson will be the best player in the series and should allow the Knicks to pull out a few close wins, but New York has the lowest floor of any of the first round favorites. This team has had stretches where they have struggled immensely, especially against good competition. There will be Kat questions and bad shooting nights from the Knicks still-shallow rotation.

Jalen Johnson might be the new Madison Square Garden antihero by the time this series ends.

Image Credit: SKIMS

Cavs 4–2 over Raptors

The Cavs are the team with the most to prove in the first round. The win-now Harden trade needs to prove to be effective, and there is a playoff underperformance streak that existed long before Harden arrived in Cleveland. Despite the question marks, Donovan Mitchell can be relied on to elevate his game in the post season and to be able to score reliably.

The Cavs also have a two big lineup that can dominate the Raptors when Toronto tries to play their most athletic and switchable lineups. The Cavs size from Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley will force the Raptors to play Jakob Poeltl. When that happens the Raptors are cooked.

Image Credit: USA Today

Celtics 4–2 over 76ers

Appendicitis is the latest unfortunate blow to Joel Embiid’s career, and I think it is unlikely to be a hurdle that he can fight through the way he has with previous injuries that have derailed him in the playoffs.

Sixers management seized on the Paul George suspension earlier this year to dump salary, get out of the luxury tax, and throw away the season, trading a talented young asset for draft capital rather than planning for a scenario where Embiid was not fully healthy in the post season.

Maxey’s continued ascension has been one of the best parts of this season and I think he and the emergent VJ Edgcombe will put on a show in a few games, but ultimately the Sixers are drawing dead against a disciplined Celtics team that has established an identity as a efficient offense in the half court during the regular season. For as remarkably smooth as Jayson Tatum’s comeback has been, they will still have to find the best way to utilize him in a playoff setting while he remains less than 100% back to his pre-injury levels. But Philly just doesn’t have anyone to matchup with Jaylen Brown, who has proven himself this year to be the best two-way wing in the league.

A riveting potential round 2 matchup against the Knicks awaits.

Image Credit: Mirror News

Pistons 4–1 over Magic

The Magic have the talent to be one of the contenders in the East, but their team is clearly not on the same page despite their big win against the Hornets to escape the play-in.

Detroit is an overlooked 1-seed with an elite defense, and match up well against the Magic. Paolo is off of his game and feuding with his coach. I don’t think a full playoff series against Isaiah Stewart, who under the radar has been one of the best defenders in the league this season, is going leave him feeling any better about the way this season went.

The Pistons have the wing defenders to constantly challenge Orlando’s two primary scorers. Jalen Duren is going to feast on Goga Bitadze and Wendell Carter, and the guard combination of Anthony Black and Jalen Suggs does not have the size to keep Cade from getting to his spots and facilitating efficient offense from good positions. Pistons to the finals.

Image Credit: GQ

Thunder 4–0 over Suns

Phoenix has had a great season and found several young players and a competitive core. They are completely overmatched going up against OKC. The Thunder pitbull-wing-rotation will keep Booker and Green from scoring efficiently and Shai will put up enough points in every game to allow the Thunder to cruise into another favorable round 2 matchup.

Image Credit: ESPN

Rockets 4–1 over Lakers

Fans have been robbed by injuries of what should have been the best series of round 1. LeBron vs. KD will have some cinematic moments, but without Luka or Austin Reaves the Lakers just don’t stand a chance against the depth and athleticism of the Rockets, when they can orbit around Sengun as a hub, paired with KD’s score from anywhere ability.

Some really incredible second round matchups are on deck.

Finals Pick: Nuggets over Pistons