Eastern Europe and War

So while we wait for events in the Gulf, time to go back to Eastern Europe, because things aren’t stopping there either. So yesterday I came across this post, which is making the same argument I have made in the past. The war of the future is asymmetrical and lacks as many advanced, read expensive systems. In fact, it is the only way to fight the modern way of war. So here you go:

EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius called on Europe to learn from Ukraine — to produce cheaper, faster and more, rather than “high fashion weapons” for millions of euros per unit.

Kubilius also stated that Europe lags behind Ukraine and Russia in missile production due to the excessive complexity and high cost of its own weapons.

Now, Russia is also preparing for this, which means bringing in Belarus. So yes, they are going to expand the war if they can. So here is the post. And to be honest, from a strategic point of view, this is the thing that makes the most sense for Russia to have attempted throughout this war. Cutting that road means cutting logistics to the East, particularly troops on the front lines at the Donbas:

Russia may use Belarus for new strikes on Ukraine, and one of the targets may be M-06 Kyiv-Chop highway, — ISW

Analysts believe that the Kremlin may use the claims about alleged “Ukrainian drones” over Belarus as a pretext to launch UAVs from Belarusian territory.

This includes possible strikes on logistics and supply routes from Poland. ISW notes that launching “Shaheds” from Belarus will allow Russia to more accurately attack moving targets and key communication routes in the western regions of Ukraine.

The M-06 Kyiv-Chop highway and railway routes connecting Ukraine with Poland were named as potential threats.

So this will immediately expand the war, which, in effect, it already is. We are already seeing drones in the Baltics. Here from Reuters:

May 27 (Reuters) — Military drones straying into the airspace of Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are stoking concerns that the war in Ukraine is spilling over into NATO’s northern borders with Russia.

As Ukraine steps up long-range attacks on Russian Baltic Sea oil shipping ports, some of its ​drones have missed their targets and led to security warnings in neighbouring countries. In the case of Latvia, ‌it led to a government collapse.

And this is already having some effects. For example, Estonia is building up the defenses along the border, and so are Lithuania and Latvia. As far as we can tell, so is Finland. And this matters because the war is getting worse, and a desperate Vladimir Putin might do something radical. For that, let me bring to you this via YouTube:

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Then there is more, because more and more drones are crossing the border and falling down, likely from electronic warfare from Belarus, the Baltic states are asking for Ukrainian help. And indeed now these three countries are not just frontline countries, but may be where the war expands, as I have written in the past:

Baltics seek Ukraine’s expertise to build bomb shelters amid drone threats — Politico.

In recent weeks, Baltic companies have reached out to Ukrainian defense manufacturers and civil defense experts to discuss purchasing bomb shelters.

Last week, Lithuania’s president and prime minister were rushed to underground bunkers, and residents of Vilnius were urged to take shelter in a safe place after a drone violated the country’s airspace.

Military authorities said the incident was “similar to what we’ve seen in Latvia and Estonia in recent days.”

Baltic officials fear that their small geographic area and high concentration of urban populations would leave little room for error in the event of a large-scale attack.

And in the case of a large-scale attack, they will lose a lot of terrain at the outset. And there will be a lot of casualties. And by that I mean civilian casualties. Because we all know that is the Russian way of war. So they are asking for help, because they need orientation on something that was unthinkable ten years ago, but now it is very much possible and even expected:

EU fears Russia could attack Europe in next 12 months, — WSJ

Several European national security officials have warned that Russia could try to test NATO’s cohesion by striking one of the Baltic states, Swedish or Danish islands in the Baltic Sea or alliance territory in the Arctic.

In addition, recent threats by US President Donald Trump to withdraw from NATO and his moves to reduce US troops stationed in Europe are increasing the threat.

And I will say it now, the US is the gift that keeps on giving to Moscow. Because at this point, we have an administration that is out to lunch. Yes, we all can argue why? The theories are many, and, to be brutally honest, I think it is a combination of all of them. Yes, Donald Trump is a Russian asset. Yes, Trump is a malignant narcissist and believes he knows better than anybody. Yes, Trump wants Trump Tower Moscow and the greatest deals with Russia like ever.

Do I expect the US to withdraw from NATO? At this point, I do, but the November elections will change those dynamics. So stay tuned, but strap those belts tightly, because this flight will only get bumpier.