NIO just delivered 37,705 vehicles in a single month.

Here is why the real trade is only just beginning.

The May delivery number dropped over the weekend. Not a modest beat. Not a steady improvement. A 62% year-over-year surge across three separate brands, one flagship product launch that moved the stock 9% in a single session, and a long-term chart setup that has already produced three perfect tier entries in twelve months.

US markets open today. This one is worth reading before you open anything.

🗣️ The Confession Box

Every week a trader from inside the RB Trading community sends me something they have never told anyone.

The ES9 launched. The stock jumped 9% in a single session. I still did not enter because I told myself I had missed the move.

I have been watching it continue higher since. The setup I identified six weeks ago is still valid. The only thing that changed is that I talked myself out of it every single week with a different excuse.

Patience and hesitation look identical until the move happens. Then they feel completely different.

Every trader has a version of this. A setup identified correctly, watched from the sidelines while the thesis played out without you.

Drop your version in the comments. And if you have a confession to submit anonymously, the link is below.

“Submit Your Confession Anonymously”

*Confessions*

📦 The May delivery numbers

NIO reported 37,705 total vehicles delivered in May 2026.

→ 🔵 NIO brand: 20,013 units

→ 🟢 ONVO brand: 12,029 units

→ 🔴 FIREFLY brand: 5,663 units

The headline numbers in full context:

→ 📈 Year-over-year growth: +62.3%

→ 📈 Month-over-month growth: +28.4% from April’s 29,356 units

→ 📊 Year-to-date deliveries: 150,526 units, up 68.7% year-over-year

→ 🏁 Cumulative deliveries as of May 31: 1,148,118 vehicles

Two things stand out beyond the headline growth rate.

The ONVO brand. At 12,029 units in a single month, ONVO is already running at a pace that would generate over 144,000 annual deliveries from a brand that barely existed twelve months ago. The ONVO L80 SUV launched into strong consumer demand and has not slowed. This is not a one-product company anymore. NIO is running a three-brand architecture and all three are delivering volume simultaneously.

The ES8. NIO’s flagship premium SUV has now held the number-one sales ranking in its segment for five consecutive months. In a Chinese EV market the CEO himself described last week as fiercely competitive and past its years of fastest growth, holding the top position in the premium segment for five straight months is not momentum. It is structural market positioning.

🚗 The ES9. The catalyst that changed the chart.

On May 27, NIO launched the ES9, its executive flagship SUV. The market reaction told you exactly how underpriced the event was.

NIO stock jumped 9.32% on the US listing in a single session, closing at $5.75. Hong Kong shares climbed as much as 10.5%. Volume hit 61 million shares by midday, running at roughly 145% of the three-month average. This was not a rumour trade. This was institutional rerating on the day of the launch itself.

Here is why the move made sense and why the story continues well beyond that single session.

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The pricing came in below the pre-sale announcement:

The ES9 launched at 498,000 yuan with battery included, and 390,000 yuan under the Battery-as-a-Service model where customers lease the battery monthly. That final pricing was 30,000 yuan below the pre-sale price announced in April. NIO cut the price at launch rather than raising it. In a market where every competitor is racing to undercut, that decision signals confidence in volume over short-term margin protection.

The pre-order pipeline was already loaded:

The ES9 accumulated over 50,000 pre-orders before launch day. Orders from buyers outside the existing NIO community were running at more than 1.5 times the equivalent period after the 2025 ES8 launch. Production was pre-staged with over 6,000 units built before launch day to enable an immediate delivery ramp with no backlog delay.

The analyst community moved immediately:

→ 📊 Deutsche Bank raised its 2026 delivery forecast by 5% to 420,000 vehicles, citing ES9 as the primary catalyst

→ 📊 CLSA raised its US ADR price target to $7 from $6 at Outperform

→ 📊 Morgan Stanley reiterated its Buy rating

→ 📊 Bernstein raised its target to $6 from $5.50

→ 📊 Consensus analyst price target now sits at $6.93

The fundamental backdrop behind the launch:

Q1 2026 results reported May 21:

→ 💰 Revenue: $3.7 billion

→ 🚗 Deliveries: 83,465 vehicles, up 98% year-over-year

→ 📈 Vehicle margin: 19%, the fourth consecutive sequential improvement

→ 🎯 Q2 2026 guidance: 110,000 to 115,000 vehicles, implying 53% to 60% year-over-year growth

Four straight quarters of vehicle margin expansion while simultaneously scaling three brands and launching a flagship product is not a narrative. It is a data set. The CEO told reporters last week that NIO has entered an intensive new product launch and delivery cycle. Q2 guidance of 110,000 to 115,000 units against a Q1 of 83,465 means the acceleration is operational not just promotional.

The full trade setup, tier entry methodology, and this week’s updated short squeeze watchlist are inside RB Pro on The Trading Desk.

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🎯 The trade setup — long term portfolio builder with leveraged tier entries on DeM dips

This is not a short squeeze trade. This is not a momentum chase on the ES9 pop. This is a structured long-term accumulation trade with a $15 price target and a specific entry methodology that has already produced three textbook tier entries in the past twelve months.

The strategy is simple. You build this position in tiers every time the RB Trading DeMarker drops below 0.3 on the daily chart. That signal has appeared three times in the past year. Every single time it has marked a significant swing low.

The three DeM tier entries that already happened:

→ 📅 June 2025 — DeM dropped below 0.3 as NIO traded near multi-year lows in the low $3 range. Traders who added a tier here are sitting on the largest unrealised gain of any entry point in the past twelve months.

→ 📅 December 4, 2025 — DeM dipped below 0.3 again as NIO consolidated after its October high of $8.02, pulling back into the mid $4 range. A second tier added here brought average cost lower and positioned for the next move higher.

→ 📅 May 8, 2026 — The most recent signal. DeM dropped below 0.3 as NIO pulled back into the $4.80 to $5.00 area before the ES9 catalyst and May delivery acceleration pushed it to current levels. This was the last clean tier entry before the fundamental story shifted decisively.

Three entries across twelve months. All three at DeM sub-0.3 levels. All three marked significant swing lows. The thesis did not change between entries. Only the price did, and lower prices on an improving fundamental story are not a risk. They are the opportunity.

Why the DeM below 0.3 works as a tier trigger:

The DeMarker measures exhaustion of selling pressure rather than trend direction. A reading below 0.3 on the daily does not mean the stock cannot go lower. It means sellers have exhausted their near-term momentum and a reversal or consolidation is statistically more likely than continuation. On a stock with NIO’s improving fundamental story in the background, that exhaustion signal becomes the optimal point to add capital at a lower average cost rather than a warning to exit.

The full position structure:

→ 📌 Entry method: Add a tier every time the DeM daily drops below 0.3. Not a single full position entry. Equal sized tiers that bring your average cost toward each major low.

→ 📊 Position sizing: 1% account risk maximum per tier. If you plan three to four tiers, size each accordingly so total exposure stays within your overall portfolio rules.

→ 🎯 Target 1: $8.02, the 52-week high. First partial profit level where trimming one tier makes sense.

→ 🎯 Target 2: $15.00 area. The longer-term structural target based on delivery growth trajectory, margin expansion, and three-brand architecture reaching full volume scale.

→ 🛑 Stop: Weekly close below $3.50. If price breaks and holds below the 2025 lows on the weekly timeframe, the thesis is invalidated and all tiers close.

Why $15 is a credible target:

NIO delivered 326,000 vehicles in 2025. Deutsche Bank is now projecting 420,000 in 2026, a 29% increase driven primarily by ES9 momentum. Q2 guidance of 110,000 to 115,000 implies an annualised run rate approaching 440,000 units.

Vehicle margin is at 19% and improving for four consecutive quarters. ONVO is adding over 12,000 units per month from a standing start. FIREFLY is adding 5,600 per month in the entry-level segment NIO had previously never addressed.

Cumulative deliveries crossed 1.1 million as of May 31. The company that could not hit 30,000 units per month in 2023 is now doing 37,705 in a single month across three separate brands.

At $15 you are looking at roughly a 2.7x from current levels on a company that just posted 98% year-over-year delivery growth in Q1 and guided another 53% to 60% for Q2. The analyst consensus at $6.93 is the first waypoint. The 52-week high at $8.02 is the second. The $15 area is the longer-term thesis target as the full three-brand volume picture emerges through 2026 and into 2027.

The next DeM dip below 0.3 on the daily is not a warning sign on this trade. It is the next tier entry.

📅 What is on The Trading Desk this week

The full watchlist is live now for Premium members.

→ 📈 NIO tier entry levels and full setup mapped with DeM readings

→ 🔥 Updated short squeeze watchlist for the week ahead

→ 💱 EMA swing setups across forex and major indices

→ 📊 DeMarker readings for every name on the list

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We trade what we can verify. Everything else is noise. Not financial advice. Never risk more than you can afford to lose.

— RB Trading