How’s the economy doing? Take a look at your Christmas list

Christmas, Hanukkah, New Year’s — they’re America’s favorite ways to eat, drink … and spend.

So while you’re calculating how much you love someone by how expensive of a gift you get them, you’re also taking part in a nationwide survey on the state of your country’s economic health.

But how?

Economic health can be told by a million different numbers. But the gross domestic product of a certain country — the GDP — is perhaps the best indicator. And spending by consumers (you) makes up more than two-thirds of that value in the United States.

If, by Christmas, you’re in a financial position where you both have a little extra to spend and also feel confident that it’s safe to spend that money (you don’t feel like an apocalypse is near enough that you might want to save up a little bit) — that indicates you’re living in an economy that’s stable or strong enough to support your holiday spending.

But if the economy has been suffering recently, you may not feel like you have wiggle room in your finances. Say you got laid off, or all of last month’s headlines have been about corrupt politicians. You might feel like it’s a better idea to hold onto your dollars, and explain to little Timmy that this just isn’t his year for that Cozy Coupe Little Tike. Maybe next year, when cronyism’s a little lower and the economy’s a little stronger.

But based on last year’s holiday spending, Americans on the whole seemed to feel good about the U.S. economy. According to The Conference Board, a think tank that tracks consumer confidence and spending, the average American planned to spend $1,063 on holiday gifts at the end of 2024. That’s an average spending of almost $80 more than 2023’s festive season.

Americans’ planned spending on holiday gifts and related purchases, on average, between 2011 and 2024. (Source: The Conference Board)

So more Americans felt a little better buying holiday gifts in 2024 than they did the year before, indicating the economy was at a better point when Christmas came back around.

That indicator tracks with the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’s numbers that the U.S. real GDP increased by 2.8% between 2023 and 2024.

Of course, holiday spending is not a perfect indicator. Consider when the holidays hit amid a presidential transition that all but promises a hike on tariffs of imported goods. That Chinese-made Cozy Coupe is about to get a lot more expensive. Consumers might feel influenced to do some heavy Christmas shopping, even if they can’t afford it, out of fears that it’s now-or-never for Timmy’s new Tike.

A record one-in-four Americans felt that fear at the end of 2024, according to a December study by the University of Michigan. In fact, the U.S. real GDP decreased by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2025, and increased by 3.3% in the second quarter.

Or even though Americans on average spent more on gifts last year than 2023, that spending depended on how wealthy consumers were. Only consumers who earned more than $75,000 per year felt comfortable spending more than the previous year. Those earning less than that actually cut back their gift budget. Holiday spending, though an indicator of the country’s GDP on the whole, is not immune to class differences.

Still, when Christmas comes around, checking your list and checking it twice — and then checking how you feel about spending all that cash — can tell you a lot about the country’s economic health.