Desertions Within the RuAF and Supplies

There is a story that is not well covered outside the OSINT space. And I admit, like, how many tanks remain in reserve bases? This is dry. But every so often, it is worth looking at it.

Regardless of the reason, troops abandoning their post means that the unit loses combat potential. ATESH brought this one today, in the Kherson region:

A wave of desertion is sweeping through the occupation forces in the Kherson direction

Our agents report mass cases of unauthorized abandonment of units within the Russian army. In just the past week, 36 servicemen from the 217th Parachute Regiment have left their positions.

Soldiers are hiding in abandoned buildings, forest areas, and private homes of local residents. Many are trying to reach Crimea to permanently leave the combat zone.

The command is taking harsh measures: mobile groups have been created to catch deserters, monetary rewards and leaves are promised for capturing them, and those caught face a field court. However, this only increases panic and the soldiers’ unwillingness to return to the front.

“ATESH” appeals to the servicemen of the Russian Armed Forces: do not wait until you are caught or sent to certain death. We can organize your safe evacuation and guarantee your life.

Ok, this is one unit. Meduza has a far larger picture article on this. And it gives us an important data point:

Since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, at least 50,000 Russian soldiers have fled the army, according to leaked Defense Ministry documents from 2024. Now, in the war’s fourth year, court cases against troops who’ve gone AWOL in southern Russia and the North Caucasus aren’t slowing down — they’re increasing. RFE/RL’s Kavkaz.Realii spoke with experts to understand why so many contract soldiers and mobilized men are deserting — and when that leads to criminal prosecution. Meduza shares an abridged English-language version of the outlet’s reporting.

Criminal cases against Russian soldiers for going AWOL during the ongoing war in Ukraine are relatively rare, says human rights advocate Ivan Chuvilyaev of Get Lost, an organization assisting Russian deserters. “The goal isn’t to punish or imprison them — it’s to send them back to the front,” he explains.

Still, some cases do make it to court. An analysis by Kavkaz.Realii of rulings from the Southern District Military Court shows that many prosecutions were opened only after a soldier’s second desertion. After the first, they’re usually just sent back to their units.

In most verdicts, the reasons why soldiers left their posts are either not stated at all or described vaguely as “family issues” or violations of the soldiers’ own rights. This pattern is also familiar to Yevgeny Kochegin, head of the Volgograd-based watchdog group Dozor.

“I wish I could tell you these soldiers are fleeing out of anti-war conviction,” Kochegin says. “But here, it’s usually personal — jealousy, for instance. A wife’s cheating, and the husband leaves his unit to confront her. Or he’s worried about his kids.”

I wish troops were leaving for ideological reasons. You can’t expect this from a highly depolitized population. And probably a few are, but not enough to cause change. Or at least not yet.

Remember, these troops joined for eye-watering compensation. The good news is that they are not fully committed to the war either. And 50,000 troops is not a minor number.

This raises a question. How bad are the morale problems in the RuAF? We know discipline in the army is brutal; we can even call it medieval. Is this starting to backfire?

ATESH had another piece today that is an echo of something we have seen in the past:

On the Kherson front, the occupiers are facing serious problems with the quality of artillery shells

Agents of “ATESH” from the 439th Guards Rocket-Artillery Brigade on the Kherson front report that they have received another batch of defective ammunition, which has already led to the first losses.

When attempting to fire from a 2S1 “Gvozdika” self-propelled gun, the shell exploded in the barrel, completely destroying the weapon and killing two occupiers. There have also been numerous cases of shells failing to detonate — up to 40% of the total fired.

Additional problems are caused by faulty fuzes and deformed casings, which lead to jamming of the guns. All of this is a consequence of effective sanctions and the around-the-clock work of defense enterprises, which affects the quality of the products.

The occupiers call the supplied ammunition a “deadly lottery ticket” — every shot could be the last.

“ATESH” warns the servicemen of the occupying forces: your command is saving money at the cost of your lives. Do not become victims of criminal negligence.

Bad ammo is part of a pattern. Firing artillery is not risk-free. But we have seen this in the past. Bad quality control is a problem. However, this happened in the Second World War; could these problems be sabotage within factories? Or is this just bad quality control? I am thinking out loud here because the system is also eating protesters like the wives of the mobilized.

This is why I raise this possibility. We will not get any confirmation until this war is over. And speaking of the end, we are now seeing some push-pull with the propaganda. This one was interesting in this light:

👀 “If Russia doesn’t have the strength to fight until 2035, we need to end the war and reach an agreement.”

❗️Agree on Peace and Prepare for the Next War — Russian Propaganda Reveals Putin’s Plan for “Special Operation 2.0”

However, there is a fly in this ointment. Restarting the war after a ceasefire will be more difficult. Also, will Vladimir Putin even be alive in 2035? And then you have all those troops coming home to be demobilized. The issues with Afghan veterans were very real. That was a small group compared to this. And Russia has never taken care of veterans in any significant way.

But even this talk on Federal channels raises eyebrows. Also, Volodomyr Zelensky warned that Putin is willing to widen the war. This has been a constant for a few years. But here we are.