Russia’s Leaked “After Victory” Documents Exposed Putin’s Real Plan for Ukraine

AI-generated image by Google Gemini

Every autocrat loves a good forever war until the invoice finally arrives in the mail. For many years, Vladimir Putin has paced around the Kremlin acting like a patient emperor who can outbleed and outlast everyone, assuming Russia’s tolerance for pain is a bottomless pit.

But reality is a notoriously bad audience for propaganda, even the most stubborn czar has to check his bank account and realize he is running out of both rubles and Russians.

Aa major intelligence leak was released by the Dossier Center last weak. It was analyzed by the Institute for the Study of War. It shows the war has pulled back the curtain on the Kremlin’s internal panic.

Titled “After Victory” the leaked presentation slides were drafted by the team of Sergei Kiriyenko, the Deputy Head of the Russian Presidential Administration and Vladimir Putin’s chief domestic policy architect.

Screenshot from the leaked document alongside its English translation. Credit for all above images: Dossier Center.

The slides reveal a stark, desperate reality. The Kremlin knows its current trajectory is unsustainable. In private, they are scared of economic collapse, a demographic disaster, and political repercussions if mass mobilization is announced. Their answer is a carefully crafted peace offer that appears to be a genuine peace deal, but is actually a ruse designed to ensnare the West.

Public bravado is cheap for the Russian state. Private evaluations are far more costly. Kiriyenko’s team began preparing these presentation slides because of growing concerns within the presidential administration about Russia’s poor performance on the battlefield and the war’s long-term negative impact on the state.

The document clearly states that there are three major problems with continuing the war that could make it a dangerous gamble for the Putin regime.

The Mobilization Trap:

One section of the slides describes what it calls the “Mobilization Trap.” The slides acknowledge that further significant territorial expansion would require a shift from a volunteer and mercenary army to general mobilization. The Kremlin is well aware that it risks widespread public dissatisfaction if it begins drafting people from major cities such as Moscow and St. Petersburg.

Total Economic Exhaustion:

If Russia wants to continue the war without the collapse it would have to put its entire economy on a wartime basis. The administration predicts that it would permanently cripple Russia’s non-military, domestic industry and generate a “dangerous economic instability.

Demographic Bleeding:

The presentation is a no-nonsense account of how high casualties at the front have damaged the already aging and depleted Russian workforce and that it is hard for Russia to get out of that demographic hole.

To avoid these existential quandaries Kiriyenko’s team plotted what it called the “most plausible scenario” to end the war. Of particular importance, the plan calls for the complete bypass of Ukraine, allowing for two separate peace agreements between the United States and Ukraine and Ukraine and Russia.

The Kremlin’s approach is focused on portraying this objective as a series of significant concessions by Russia. They propose to withdraw from Sumy Oblast and Kharkiv Oblast, let Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the president, and accept a “symbolic and restrained denazification” of Ukraine.

However, military expert are raising the alarm. Sumy and Kharkiv are not under the control of Russia. If you are willing to withdraw”from the territories your military cannot take or hold, it’s not a concession. It’s a rhetorical device.

Meanwhile, Russia expects a lot in return. The expectations include full legal control of all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Russia is now battered, with its forces losing men and equipment every step of the way in Donbas. They are unlikely to occupy the rest of the area anytime soon. The Kremlin is trying to obtain at the negotiating table what it could not achieve on the battlefield

Another concern revealed in the presentation is the Kremlin’s fear of its own ultranationalist base. The document makes it clear that any retreat or ‘frozen frontline’ would be seen as a betrayal by hardline milbloggers and pro-war groups in Russia.

Kiriyenko’s team developed a two-part strategy to contain the internal backlash:

The Stick:

Threaten radical pro-war milbloggers with Russia’s harsh military censorship laws, this time targeting them with prison terms for ‘discrediting the Russian Armed Forces.

The Carrot:

Artificially elevate and fund “moderate” media voices to dominate the information ecosystem and drown out the extremists.

State media has been handed a specific rhetorical playbook for selling the peace deal to the Russian people. The narrative will shift dramatically, presenting a frozen conflict as a calculated victory rather than a deadlock including:

— ->- Putin succeeded in thwarting the west from expanding and prolonging the conflict.

— ->- Russia achieved maximum results without needing a general mobilization.

— ->- We managed to save Donbas from the humanitarian catastrophe.

— ->- It is the President who knows best for Russia.

By allowing a secret document to slip out showing an apparent willingness to compromise, tolerating Zelenskyy, abandoning claims on Kharkiv, and dropping the hardline “denazification” rhetoric, the Kremlin is fishing for Western compliance.

The goal is to project an image of a reasonable, war-weary Russia ready to deal, thereby encouraging Western politicians to slow down military aid and pressure Kyiv into a ceasefire.

But the text of “After Victory” proves that Russia’s core objectives remain unchanged. The Kremlin is not looking for a fair peace. It is looking for breathing room.

They want an end to U.S. sanctions, a permanently neutralized Ukraine cut off from NATO, and international recognition of stolen land, all wrapped up in a glossy PR campaign designed to keep Vladimir Putin secure in the Kremlin.

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