Daily Dose of Chart : 02 Sept 2025

$USM2 at ATH. $US10Y rangebound. $UNRATE increasing. What’s next?

Today we dive deeper into the macroeconomic indicators. People who follow my space know my bias toward $US10Y for market signals. Since months we are following the $US10Y within this downward slopping parallel regression channel. On May 2 we predicted that we might see 3.5% by Dec 2025.

$US10Y making new lows. 4% upcoming. 3.5% target low. for TVC:US10Y by RabishankarBiswal — TradingView

The target seems to be far-fetched with Fed staying put with the short-term interest rates. But what we did not observe is the $USM2 increasing simultaneously. $USM2 is the M2 money supply in the economy. This is increasing due to higher fiscal spending. This has resulted in fall in $DXY and higher stock markets. At 22.1 T $ $USM2 is above the Covid highs of 21.7 T $.

Despite of expanding fiscal spending the US Unemployment rate is increasing recently. With current rate of 4.21 % it is a multi-year high.

So as equity and Crypto investors what should we expect? In my opinion higher $USM2, rangebound $US10Y and $UNRATE < 5% we remain bullish. Higher $USM2, lower $US10Y and $UNRATE > 4.5% we get a small correction, but we buy the dip. Higher $USM2, $US10Y < 3.5% and $UNRATE > 5% we will be in recession, and we keep on buying Stocks and Crypto for bounce back.

Verdict: Macroeconomic indicators on poor footing. Whatever happens we buy Stocks and $BTC. Recession is just an opportunity to outsize portfolios.

$US10Y, $USM2 & $UNRATE : Looking for a pattern

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