RSP might become the largest party, but 2026 still looks like coalition politics

Even with a massively optimistic forecast, RSP is realistically looking at around 45–50 FPTP (First-Past-The-Post) seats + ~20 PR (Proportional Representation) seats = roughly 65–70 total.

That would make RSP a major player, possibly even the largest single party but it’s nowhere near the 138 seats needed for a majority.

Which means… coalition politics again.

And historically, that’s not unusual for Nepal.

After People’s Movement I, Congress (Nepali Congress) rose but couldn’t lock in long-term stability. After People’s Movement II and the Maoist insurgency, Mabodi surged but fragmentation followed. Later, Yemale consolidated power and still couldn’t avoid splits and instability.

Nepal rarely produces clean majorities. It produces rising forces that peak then struggle to consolidate.

So if Rastriya Swatantra Party hits around 70 seats, this election likely becomes a transitional moment, not a decisive one.

The real question isn’t whether they win 138 now.

It’s whether they:

• Handle coalition politics strategically
• Deliver visible reforms
• Build strong nationwide organization

Because in Nepal, the second election after a surge is usually the real test.

70 seats won’t change everything overnight. But it could mark the start of a long-term realignment if they don’t implode like others before them.