Gold Down 12% But ING Forecasts $5,000/oz by Year-End | What US Buyers Should Know

Gold just did something strange. As missiles flew over the Middle East and the Iran conflict escalated into one of the most destabilizing geopolitical events in years, gold fell, not rose. Since the conflict began, gold has dropped roughly 12% from its January 2026 all-time high of $5,589/oz, trading near $4,729/oz at the time of writing.

For investors who bought gold as a crisis hedge, that feels like a betrayal. But here is what most headlines are not telling you: this is a macro story, not a gold story. And ING, one of the world’s largest financial institutions, just issued a forecast stating that gold will still reach $5,000/oz by year-end 2026.

So what is actually happening? Why did gold fall during a crisis? And more importantly, should US investors be buying right now?

Here is the full breakdown.

Why Gold Fell 12%: It Is Not What You Think

Most people assume gold always rises during geopolitical conflict. That is only partially true. Gold performs best during financial crises and growth shocks, moments when real yields fall, and the US dollar weakens. Think 2008, think March 2020. In those moments, gold surged because the economic shock made cash and bonds less attractive.

The Iran conflict is a different kind of shock entirely. It is a supply-driven energy shock, and supply shocks do the exact opposite to gold.

Here is the chain reaction:

• Higher oil prices push inflation expectations higher
• Rising inflation gives the Federal Reserve less room to cut rates
• Fed stays hawkish, keeping real yields elevated
• A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for international buyers
• All three forces combine to pressure gold prices lower

ING commodities strategist Ewa Manthey explained it directly: “The setback keeps the ceasefire timeline uncertain and inflation risks elevated, reinforcing the higher-for-longer rate narrative that has weighed on gold throughout the conflict.”

We saw the same dynamic in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. Gold initially spiked, then sold off for six months as energy-driven inflation pushed yields and the dollar higher. The same playbook is unfolding today, only faster.

Adding to the pressure, April’s US payrolls report showed employers added jobs for a second consecutive month, with unemployment holding steady at 4.3%. That gives the Fed little justification to rush rate cuts, keeping yields elevated and maintaining a headwind for gold in the near term.

What Should US Investors Do Right Now?

The answer from virtually every major institution is the same: use this correction to build or add to your physical gold position.

Here is why physical gold, not ETFs, is the right vehicle for most US investors in this environment:

• No counterparty risk. Unlike gold ETFs, physical bars cannot be suspended, frozen, or devalued by a custodian’s financial problems.
• No management fees are eating into your returns. A gold bar bought today retains 100% of its value appreciation.
• Real, tangible ownership. In a world where sovereign credit ratings are being cut and dollar credibility is being questioned, holding something physical matters.

At **Gold Stock USA Inc., we carry the full range of Aarus gold bars, featuring .9999 fine (24-karat) LBMA-approved bullion with individual serial numbers, certificates of authenticity, and SPECTROLAB-verified purity. Whether you are entering the market for the first time or adding to an existing position, Aarus bars offer institutional-grade quality at some of the lowest premiums over spot available from a US dealer today.**

Gold is currently trading at $4,729/oz, roughly $860 below its all-time high, with ING, JPMorgan, HSBC, and UBS all forecasting it will exceed $5,000 before December 2026.

The question is not whether to buy gold. The question is whether you will buy before or after it gets there.