My Cassandra Curse

21 July 2024

After eight years the pain still jabs me. I predicted Bernie Sanders could win the White House in November 2016 and that Hillary Clinton might lose. I’d collected painstaking evidence, yet no one believed me or paid attention.

Rewind three thousand years (whooosh!): the god Apollo gave Cassandra the gift of prophesy, but cursed her with never being believed.[1] It didn’t end well. I could relate.

Democratic primary voters widely believed and endlessly repeated that Clinton was more “electable” than Sanders. I myself was skeptical of Sanders until summer 2015. That’s when I witnessed firsthand the power of his candidacy. Clinton’s rallies typically drew hundreds of supporters; Sanders, thousands. Five thousand showed up in Houston, where I live; I was there out of curiosity and became a believer. Ten thousand in Phoenix. Nearly ten thousand in Madison, Wisconsin. And on and on. [2]

Corporate media and the Democratic Party downplayed and denigrated Sanders’ phenomenal popularity. In early March 2016, the Washington Post famously ran 16 hit pieces against Sanders in 16 hours.[3] In primary election polls, Clinton trounced Sanders. But in November they would face a still-undecided Republican candidate, not each other.

So who was really more “electable”? I aimed to find out. Beginning February 2016, I tallied every poll at Real Clear Politics that included both Sanders and Clinton against one or more Republican candidates. No exceptions, no cherrypicking.

For sure, by then I was a Sanders fan — but more so a fan of science and integrity. This test would be apples to apples: the same polls, same queries, same polling teams, same timing, same demographics and targeted cohorts, the same Republican opponents. Who would perform better against the GOP?

I copied detailed poll results into spreadsheets. I made a website, BernieWorks.com, and posted summaries and commentaries there. I kept it up till June 2016 when, regrettably, Sanders conceded.[4]

I’ll cut to the chase. Sanders outperformed Clinton in 135 of 150 total polls. In other words, Sanders beat Clinton against Republicans (including a reality-show blowhard, one Donald J Trump) 90 percent of the time.

That’s not all. Sanders beat GOP contenders by substantially larger point spreads than Clinton did, another sign of his electoral strength.[5]

In November matchups, Sanders consistently beat Trump by wider margins than Clinton did.

Meanwhile, Clinton’s poll performance against GOP candidates revealed disturbing signs of electoral weakness. Again, you can see summaries at BernieWorks.com. Given the solid consistency of poll outcomes over a four-month span, Sanders clearly would have wiped the floor with Trump in a November 2016 general election. Based strictly on the data, I dubbed him “Iron Man Sanders.”[6]

Highly paid Democratic consultants had access to the same data I did. However, these apparatchiks’ mission wasn’t to defeat the GOP, but to crush Sanders and the progressive movement. With greed and malice aforethought, they triumphed over truth and integrity — giving us Trump and the dismal world we inhabit today.

Have Dems learned any lessons? Gained any humility? Of course not. Can the unrepentant, unreformed Democratic Party prevail? Corporate Dems and billionaires continue using their massive financial advantage to crush progressive leaders.

As I wrote this, media announced Biden is dropping out of the 2024 presidential race. Could a progressive replace him? I am not holding my breath.

Notes

1. https://www.brooklynmuseum.org/eascfa/dinner_party/heritage_floor/cassandra

2. https://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/bernie-sanders-draws-biggest-crowd-any-2016-candidate-yet-msna630966

3. https://fair.org/home/washington-post-ran-16-negative-stories-on-bernie-sanders-in-16-hours/

4. BernieWorks.com, also at https://bernieworks.weebly.com

5. To view point-spread slideshow, scroll to bottom of BernieWorks.com homepage.

6. https://bernieworks.weebly.com/blog/iron-man-sanders-92-winning-streak-vs-trump