Ukraine and the European Union

Yesterday, the last step was taken. Ukraine and Moldova are now in final negotiations to join the European Union. This started at the Revolution of Dignity at the Maidan in 2014. This is some of CNN's take on this:

Earlier at the EU Council, member states agreed to begin so-called accession talks with Ukraine, nearly two years after it was accepted as a candidate state. Ukraine has held ambitions to join the EU for more than a decade.

Orban — whose government has always been by far the closest ally of the Kremlin in the EU — said he had not participated in the discussions about accession talks in order for the other member states to make the decision.

Orban on Thursday called the announcement that Ukraine was beginning accession negotiations “a completely senseless, irrational and incorrect decision,” adding that his country “did not participate in the decision today.”

Earlier this week, Orban claimed that Ukraine still needed to meet three of the seven conditions necessary to greenlight accession talks and, therefore, said there was no current reason to negotiate EU membership for Ukraine.

Ukraine is at the borderlands between Asia and Europe. She chose to go towards Europe and has worked for this since 2014. So have Moldova and Georgia.

The sands just shifted. One of the unstated reasons for the Russian invasion of these three countries is to prevent them from turning away from Russia.

They are. They are all choosing the European path. It is a defeat of the strategic goals of the Federation. Yes, a few Russians were angry. However, they are now facing the consequences of this adventure.

It’s not just the casualties or lack of rotation from the front. We are starting to see the economic effects in their daily lives.

These are connected to what looks like an inflationary spiral:

The Russian government increased the down payment on preferential mortgages at 8% per annum to 30% from 20%.

Getting loans for homes will become nearly impossible. Then, there is the increase in the basis rate from the central bank:

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation increased the key rate by 1 percentage point — to 16% per annum

We got that kind of inflationary rate during the Vietnam War. Then it got fun. After the pandemic, we saw inflation, but nothing close to those eye-watering numbers.

And here, more on eggs, now chicken as well. So Russia is indeed having some issues. So here about eggs and chickens, not yet in Moscow, though:

“Your eggs are fine, so people should be too.”

During the last meeting of the autumn session, State Duma Speaker Volodin instructed the relevant committees to keep the issue of prices for eggs and chicken under control.

So, is this more serious than local shortages? But the crux of this is that Russia needs to sound better. We even had some of this in the annual summary of events. It was not held last year. But this year it was; there were “elections” in March. So Vladimir Putin has a brave face. This is but a mere example:

A lie from the first words: Putin boasted of the consolidation of society, success in industry and an increase in life expectancy. In fact, there is nothing to brag about.

❓In Russia there is an incredibly high consolidation of society, Putin said during the direct line-2023 ❗️In fact, as follows from the Russian Field survey, society is split into supporters and opponents of continuing the war, the number of opponents has reached its maximum since the beginning of the “SVO” . Almost half of those surveyed demand a transition to peace negotiations with Ukraine — but Putin has not yet said a word about peace .

❓ Profit of Russian enterprises at the end of 2023 increased by 24% ❗️Putin doesn’t finish speaking. Yes, overall profits are growing, but in some industries it is a complete disaster . Thus, the profits of companies engaged in wholesale and retail trade decreased by 13% amid falling sales, Bloomberg reported. Mining revenues fell even further, by 51% , as sanctions hit key producers in the sector. In the technology sector, where Western companies have left en masse, profits fell by 48%.

❓ Life expectancy in Russia in 2023 is expected to be 74 years ❗️In fact, there is nothing to brag about: in Europe, the average life expectancy has long reached 80 years . In addition, in 2019 the figure reached 73.34 years, a record level in the history of modern Russia. But then he fell due to Covid — this allows Putin to talk about a “record”. Putin ordered to reach the level of 74 in a 2012 decree.

❓ There will be no second wave of mobilization , Putin assures ❗️ Yes, because the first one has not ended yet — for this, he must by law sign the corresponding act. In addition, at the very beginning of the war, he also argued that mobilization would not be required. But in the end I did exactly the opposite. “Creeping” mobilization continues this year.

Russians, unlike Israelis (get two Israelis, get three views), are quiet. They do have a public face and a private face. The public one goes along with whatever the event of the day is. The private one can be summarized in the kitchen conversations going back to the society period.

You may tell some family what you think in the kitchen. But in public, you will not. Why? There are ears in those walks, phones, and, these days, VK Pages. We are seeing a slow wave take shape.

Those chickens are coming home to roost, in both literal and figurative senses, and this includes the front lines:

In audio intercepts from the front lines in Ukraine, Russian soldiers speak in shorthand of 200s to mean dead, 300s to mean wounded. The urge to flee has become common enough that they also talk of 500s — people who refuse to fight.

As the war grinds into its second winter, a growing number of Russian soldiers want out, as suggested in secret recordings obtained by The Associated Press of Russian soldiers calling home from the battlefields of the Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk regions in Ukraine.

So we keep to this. Because it’s a slow rumbling, it continues to move glacially. But life at this point is worse for the average Russian, well, maybe except for residents in poor regions. The middle class is disappearing.