2024: A Year Of Democracy, Populism And Political Disruptions

Introduction:

2024 has been a remarkable year that will go down in history books as the year of democracy. More than 70 countries voted in elections this past year, including 4 of the largest democracies, India, USA, Indonesia, and Pakistan. European Union citizens from 27 countries also voted in the EU parliamentary elections. From the far eastern corners of the Pacific, in the Solomon Islands and Tuvalu, to the British Isles, much of the world witnessed elections in 2024.

Countries that went to the polls, mapped.

Global Electoral Trends:

Two major themes emerged across these elections: the resurgence of populist right-leaning leaders and a significant reduction in vote shares for incumbent powers, with some experiencing outright defeats.

1. Predictable Outcomes

Some election results were anticipated. Rwanda overwhelmingly re-elected Paul Kagame for a fourth term as President, continuing a tenure that many Rwandans have known throughout their lives. Similarly, Bangladesh re-elected Sheikh Hasina for her fourth term, although her government was ousted in August following widespread protests in Dhaka and other cities. Similarly, Russia also elected Vladimir Putin with 87% of the vote, to the surprise of absolutely nobody.

2. Loss Of Support For Incumbent Powers:

A vast majority of states that went to the polls showed reduced support to incumbent parties, with some experiencing outright defeats.

Support for incumbent parties in the polls. Source

3. Major Democracies in Flux:

1. Europe:

France saw a surge inRight Wing parties. In the first round of elections, the right wing National Rally (RN) party led by Marine Le Pen led in parliamentary votes. The second round saw the Leftist and Centrist Coalitions unite to prevent RN from taking power. The National Rally did win its highest ever seat tally, cementing its place in French Politics for years to come.

Right WIng parties also fared well in European Parliamentary elections, particularly among young people. This shows that issues that young voters want tackled are largely related to immigration, security, national identity, and the cost of living.

Romania went to its first round of polls on December 1, 2024. The outgoing president, Klaus Iohannis, who led the country for 10 years, could not contest due to constitutional restrictions on re-election. Călin Georgescu, an independent right wing candidate, won the highest vote share of all candidates. This was a shock, given his pro-Russian, anti-NATO stance. This shows a shift of Romania’s Politics. After a declassification of files by Romania’s Intelligence Services, 48 hours before the second round, the Constitutional Court annulled the results. The country is now scheduled to go to polls again in March 2025, with Iohannis continuing to be President till then.

2. India:

India also went to the polls across 7 phases over 45 days. It was expected that the incumbent BJP led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi would win a supermajority this time. All predictions pointed to this. However, for the first time since taking office, Modi failed to win enough seats for a clear majority and was forced into a coalition government.

3. Japan:

Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party also lost its majority and was forced to form a coalition government. Since its foundation in 1955, the LDP has been out of power for only 4 years.

4. South Africa:

The African National Congress led by Cyril Ramaphosa lost its majority for the first time since the end of apartheid. This showed a discontentment among its core voter base, with a lot of support shifting to former President Jacob Zuma’s Populist Left Wing Party, the MKP.

Significant Shifts In The UK And The USA:

The left wing Labour Part won the election with a supermajority not seens since Tony Blair in 2001, doubling its seat count and coming back to power after a decade and a half. It also only won 33.7% of the popular vote, the lowest for any winning party. This also tarnished the image of Rishi Sunak, outgoing British Prime Minister, and the first non-white Prime Minister. This does not mean that the UK bucked the trend of global politics shifting towards the RIght. The only issue was that voters split their votes between the Tories and Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage. Reform took away a lot of votes from the Tories in key Constituencies, raising its vote share from 2% in 2019 to 14% in 2024, even though they only won 5 seats. Their vote share exceeded that of the third largest party, the Liberal Democrats, who won 72 seats.

Rishi Sunak is unlikely to return to the British Political Landscape anytime soon, unless Prime Minister Keir Starmer messes up big time. However, it does certainly seem that Starmer is trying his very best to do so. His approval ratings have tanked drastically since he took office, meaning troubled times are ahead for Labour.

Source

The USA election of 2024 marked a historic comeback for former President Donald Trump, who had won before in 2016 but lost in 2020. The Republican Party defeated the Democrats in a significant election. This was the first time that an incumbent party lost more votes in every single county across the USA. Trump also increased voter share with every single demographic. Trump won every single swing state, something not seen since Ronald Reagan in 1984. With all of these statistics, Trump’s comeback in the American Political Landscape is also something not seen since 1892 — the return of a candidate winning a second non-consecutive term. It also shows that the doors are not entirely closed for other politicians who lost, and have a shot at returning to a prominent position in politics in the USA.

Mexico Bucks The Trend:

In Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum succeeded President Andrés Manuel López Obrador in leading the left-wing Morena Party and ultimately secured the nomination of the ruling coalition. She won with a landslide majority, bucking the trend of the resurgence of Right Wing politics across the world. She is also the first woman and the first Jewish-heritage individual to be elected President in Mexico.

Thematic Analysis:

The elections of 2024 reflected two broad themes: the global resurgence of populist right-wing politics and the decline in support for incumbent parties. Populism, whether left or right, champions the ordinary people against an elite establishment perceived as obstructing their political preferences. This year’s electoral outcomes indicate a widespread demand for radical change and a growing disenchantment with traditional political representatives.

Conclusion:

The electoral trends of 2024 signal a rejection of the status quo and a strong sense of distrust and disenfranchisement among voters towards the existing political class. As the world braces for the challenges of 2025, these shifts suggest a new political landscape that demands attention and adaptation.