How do the Sixers approach the draft?

Me too, Daryl

In a few days time, the 76ers will do something with the 3rd pick in the NBA draft.

This is a very unfamiliar spot for the Sixers. Or maybe it’s the most familiar. Who knows?

On one hand, the 76ers have made the playoffs every season since 2017–18, the year where they surprised a lot of people by winning 52 games with a young core just a season after winning 28 games. On the other hand, the Sixers were abysmal in the mid-2010s, winning just 75 games from the 2013–14 season to the 2016–17 season. They drafted in the top three 4 separate times in those years, yielding Joel Embiid, Jahlil Okafor, Ben Simmons, and Markelle Fultz. Talk about hit or miss!

Since 2013, the 76ers have technically had 6 executives, though that’s a questionable number. The Process started with Sam Hinkie, who lasted until 2015–16 when the Colangelos came around. Inexplicably, the elder Colangelo, Jerry, is credited with being the executive for just one game (fittingly, a loss) in 2016. Bryan Colangelo resigned after his famed Twitter burners had a light shone on them when he was replaced by…nobody! Brett Brown, to me, represents the 4th executive of the bunch, as he was the interim decision maker and may have made the decision to trade Mikal Bridges on draft night in 2018. He was relieved of his interim duties by Elton Brand, who was somehow probably the worst of the bunch and took a backseat to incoming “President of Basketball Operations” (sick title) Daryl Morey in 2021.

Daryl’s got a weird legacy in Philadelphia. While he made the Sixers top contenders again after fixing some of the problems Elton Brand left him, the Sixers still haven’t gotten past the 2nd round, in case you weren’t aware. His cap space plan worked, but he probably spent it incorrectly. The thing about Daryl Morey is he has literally never drafted this highly. The lowest win total of a team he’s run prior to 2024 had 34 wins, and that was in the shortened 2011–12 season, good for a record above .500, and his lowest win percentage was .500 with the 15–16 Rockets who were never going to be particularly good. Suddenly, he’s in the position to make a decision with a top 3 pick after his roster went 24–58 in an Eastern Conference that saw a team led by Josh Giddey win 39 games. Where’d it all go wrong?

Well, for starters, something was way off with Embiid. Be it playing in the Olympics, a tougher recovery than expected, or his knee simply being unfixable, Embiid played just 19 games and wasn’t himself when he did play. Paul George also came into the season injured, playing 41 games that were often hard to watch. Tyrese Maxey was less than stellar and sat out most of the final bit of the season.

That isn’t to say nothing was gained from this season, though. 2024 1st round pick Jared McCain was great in his 23 games prior to his surprising meniscus tear. Justin Edwards, a UDFA, played very well and could be a nice piece for the future. Adem Bona, who they took in the 2nd round, showed some promise to be the backup to Embiid in the future. An NBA reunion for Guerschon Yabusele proved to be more than worth it as he played better than just about any Sixers role player in the Embiid era. A deadline move for Quentin Grimes made him a lot of money and got the Sixers a starting caliber guard. Oh, and they got the 3rd overall pick! That’s always nice.

I really want to avoid talking financials in this article. That’s for the post draft offseason article I’ll make eventually. However, a pick as high as 3 really impacts the cap, to the tune of about $11.1 million against the cap this year. That will be in the consideration of anything I do in this article. Anyway, here’s a few options for the Sixers.

1. Stick and Pick

The Sixers haven’t picked top 3 since 2017. When they last landed a top 3 pick, the 3rd overall pick that season turned out to be a future Hall of Famer. If only they hadn’t traded it to the hated Celtics just 4 days prior to the draft!

Listen, maybe they should learn their lesson and just stay at 3. It’s a bit different though. The Sixers have no chance of trading up to 1. Nobody does. That’s Cooper Flagg, who would be picked 1st overall in 9/10 drafts. They tried to trade up to 2 to take Dylan Harper, but San Antonio wouldn’t budge. They either stay at 3, trade down, or trade the pick entirely. Let’s say they stick at 3. What are the options?

In recent days, it has become very apparent that Ace Bailey is not likely to be a Philadelphia 76er. However, Daryl Morey is pretty publicly ignorant to the whole thing, and would not let a bit of 18 year old angst get in the way of a prospect he likes. Ace Bailey is a 6'7 (no, not 6'10) forward out of Rutgers who is the most divisive draft prospect in recent memory. He’s an incredible shotmaker, but that may be the only thing he actually brings offensively. He takes tough shots and often makes them. He is probably the best shooter in the draft. Ace Bailey struggles pretty badly at times to actually create good shots for himself, let alone others. His inability to playmake for others is already widely known, but it’s pretty underdiscussed just how poor his self creation skills are. He can hardly get to the rim and doesn’t do well when he gets there. In his lauded game against Indiana, where he put up 39 points and finished without an assist, he created one shot that I considered good. His best bet is getting drafted to a team like the Sixers who can let him develop as a pure scorer behind a few other guys and to serve the Sixers as an MPJ style corner sitter who handles the ball every now and then and plays decent defense. However, he doesn’t seem too eager to buy into that role. Ace Bailey’s team cancelled a workout he had scheduled with the Sixers, which would have been his first (and possibly only) in this cycle. This has resulted in an even bigger divide in the fanbase’s opinion of him. Some see him as a new age Kevin Durant or Paul George, while others see him as a taller Jalen Green. I strongly lean towards the latter, especially if he doesn’t want to buy in to a team role to start his career. Whatever, man. If you want to shoot 20 times a game in Washington or Utah, you do you.

Immediately, the next option for most people became Baylor’s VJ Edgecombe. Edgecombe comes with a lot of things to like, both for now and the future. He stands at around 6'5, and is a speedy guard/forward who is freakishly athletic and already advanced defensively despite his youth. His main knock is his halfcourt offense, which admittedly leaves quite a bit to be desired. He doesn’t really create his own shot all that well yet, and is inconsistent around the rim, just like Ace Bailey. Unlike Bailey, Edgecombe can sort of get to the rim. VJ’s dribbling is not very good yet, either, and his shooting is inconsistent. I do think his shooting struggles are a bit overstated, though. He shot just a tick under 40% from 3 in 18 games of conference play, and the Big 12 is no easy conference. He can help the Sixers as a defensive menace and can play something of a small ball forward in the dunker’s spot. You’d definitely want to see him develop his shot creation and shooting a bit more, but he’s otherwise pretty NBA ready with a lot of potential to tap into. I have his low end outcome as something like current Kris Dunn and his high end outcome as maybe a slightly better version of 17–18 Victor Oladipo. I certainly prefer him to Bailey.

Alternatively, the Sixers can target Kon Knueppel out of Duke. While drafting him at 3 would be a bit high, I have become pretty convinced the Hornets want him at 4 if they stay there, and that he wouldn’t be available in most trade back situations, so I’ll talk about him here. Kon is actually a very underrated playmaker and self creator. He gets to his spots well, both on and off ball, and is good at creating shots for others. He’s the best 3 point shooter of the draft, full stop, and is way more athletic than profiles of him give him credit for. He is the best connective playmaker in the draft. Defense is where I see him dropping a bit. He isn’t a great defender, though it isn’t like he doesn’t try out there. He’s just lacking a bit in lateral quickness. I could see him developing into a neutral or even small plus defender if he can just stay in front of guys in the NBA. I don’t think he ends up a Sixer, but he would be incredible playing off of some of the creators the Sixers have. Think of the DHO plays the Sixers ran with Embiid and Redick back in the day, along with the plays they ran with Embiid in that same spot in 23–24 with Maxey and others. He could be that and even more. I feel like he’s built for playoff basketball, too, an aspect the Sixers aren’t too great at. I think his low end outcome is something like early career Kyle Korver, and his high end outcome is like a prime Khris Middleton. Overall, most would be afraid to take Kneuppel at 3, but I certainly am not.

Duke has a third great prospect, Khaman Maluach. He’s got quite a bit in common with one Joel Hans Embiid. Like Embiid he enters the draft having picked up basketball unusually late in his life, though he started playing at about 12, a bit earlier than Embiid. It is pretty refreshing that Maluach has not been the target of rumors regarding his age like former South Sudanese bust Thon Maker, and he enters the draft at just 18, not turning 19 until September. He’s a defensive menace, who can block just about any shot and is extremely aggressive. This sometimes leaves him in a bad position to grab rebounds, which hurt him a bit in the tournament, but he otherwise rode this to great success with Duke. His 1.5 stocks per game are misleading; he was an absolute game wrecker. Offensively, Maluach is very interesting. He’s already an incredible PNR big who finishes dunks at a great rate, like former Duke big man Dereck Lively. This is something the Sixers haven’t really had. What’s even more interesting is that he may develop into a capable shooter. This may seem outlandish, but nobody thought Joel Embiid was going to be one of the greatest shooting big men in NBA history out of the draft. Embiid shot 98 for 143 (68.5%) from the line, as well as hitting 1 of 5 attempts from 3, in his sole season at Kansas. Maluach shot 59 for 77 (76.6%) from the line and hit 4 of his 16 attempts beyond the arc at Duke. Could Maluach actually be a good shooter someday? It’s hard to get a read on it, honestly. Chances are, he’ll never be an Embiid level shooter, but what if he is? Does that make it worth the Sixers taking him? To me, it kind of does. In the games Embiid doesn’t play, he can play team offense and make things difficult for opposing offenses. In the games Embiid does play, he can be his best backup ever. That’s what I would say if I wasn’t actually pretty convinced by Maluach’s defensive fit with Embiid. Embiid is one of the best drop bigs in modern NBA history, and Maluach made a living surprising ball handlers by blitzing them on pick and rolls. In a double big renaissance like the one we’re in the midst of, combining the two could work wonders. Duke had trouble accounting for when the pass actually got to the roller after Maluach blitzed, but Embiid is a more than capable second line of defense. When Embiid can sit in the paint, he is a generational defender. Maluach can wreak havoc and make Embiid’s job easier, not to mention fix the Sixers’ rebounding issue. On offense, Embiid should probably scale back his usage. While he’ll always operate in the post, he should probably be more of an outside hub who relies more on shooting and playmaking for others, especially in the regular season. Maluach can play off of this, both operating in the post and screening off ball for shooters like McCain and Maxey. If he turns into an NBA level (or even better!) shooter, that’s just the cherry on top of a very good prospect. I think his low end outcome is a good, if aggressive, rim protector and a big who can play 20 minutes a night. His high end could be one of the best players in the sport. I think Maluach would be the boldest pick at 3, but man, do I believe in him as an NBA player, and even as a Sixer.

The final candidate to be picked at 3 by the Sixers is Tre Johnson, a pure scoring guard from Texas. I’m going to be brief on this one since I really don’t think he’s at all in play to be a Sixer. 3 is too high for him, but I don’t think he slides to a point where the Sixers could pick in a trade down spot. He’s an incredible shot maker with a much better shot creation ability than Bailey, plus some surprising playmaking chops. He isn’t particularly good on defense. While I generally agree with the idea of drafting BPA after winning 24 games, there is one thing set about this team, and that’s the guard rotation. Specifically, the Sixers should have Tyrese Maxey, Jared McCain, and Quentin Grimes all locked up for 3+ years by the end of the offseason. Tre Johnson doesn’t fit their needs. I think Tre will be a great player, but I don’t think it will be with the Sixers. Low end outcome is a worse Cam Thomas, high end outcome is Devin Booker. That’s all.

Ultimately, I think the Sixers stay at 3 and take VJ Edgecombe.

Update: that seems more likely after a report from Jonathan Givony of ESPN implied that, despite shooting struggles, the Sixers liked what they saw in the workout. Let’s hope this isn’t a second Fultz.

2. Trade down, get assets

Sean Rayford/Getty Images Sport/Getty Images

The other route is simple: take calls and trade back a few spots. The Sixers lucked out by getting pick 3. To me, this is a draft where the talents from picks 2 to about 12–14 are all relatively close in talent. I think this is an incredible class. Why not trade down, get an extra pick, and take a player of similar talent? Couple this with the lower base salary of a lower pick, and they may have more cap flexibility.

I mean, who knows? It’s perfectly possible that Knueppel or Maluach drop to 7 or 8, though it feels unlikely. Reports have indicated that the Pelicans are interested in trading up for Ace Bailey. While some have expressed their desire to acquire Herb Jones or Trey Murphy in a deal like this, that just isn’t happening. The Pelicans could trade either one of those guys for things a whole lot more valuable than moving up 4 spots in a draft. What the Pelicans could trade, however, is picks 7 and 23, plus a few future picks Morey may try to scrape out of them. If the Pelicans offered both of those picks plus a future pick, would Morey say no? I certainly hope not. I have the Pels being the first team who would really take Maluach at 7, so you could take him lower than 3 AND have a pick later. If you wanted, you could flip pick 23 and another draft asset or two to trade up from 23 to the late lottery, or just a bit after it.

I should mention that a fringe rumor reported by Jazz writer Andy Larsen mentioned a potential move involving trading down to 5 in exchange for the 3rd pick and swapping Paul George’s contract for a few contracts on Utah. While this was certainly an interesting idea, it was never really in the cards. He elaborated that this was an idea floated by the Philly front office, not Utah’s, and the Jazz preferred the financial flexibility to moving up two spots. I could see Utah trading up, but not for Paul George. Any PG move will likely have to wait until after the draft, if at all.

Here are a few players I could see being available at 7.

Collin Murray-Boyles out of South Carolina is one of the most tantalizing prospects of the draft, but you wouldn’t know it looking at half of the mock drafts out there today. It’s either you think CMB is a top 5 guy or he’s a fringe lottery to pick 20 guy. I certainly lean towards him having top 5 upside. I particularly have issues with him being labeled as only a small ball 5, which is an extremely disingenuous description of him. CMB is a true blue 4, through and through, as dead and nothingburger-ish as that position is. He grabs boards, he drives hard, he’s fast, and he plays defense. Everyone knows that. Even from that description, it sounds like something the Sixers need! You’re telling me that wouldn’t have helped them against New York or Boston? Past that, however, is what you get when you really look at what he did at South Carolina. The Gamecocks were a very bad team, and CMB did everything for them. He was their main ball handler, their main shot creator, and their main playmaker. This isn’t necessarily anything crazy, as a lot of draft prospects do a lot for their college teams, but he was a certified offensive hub who has legitimate playmaking chops at 6’7. You just don’t see that. When Embiid is out, the Sixers have zero playmaking ability. None. Will that improve with McCain being back? I certainly think so, but I think Murray-Boyles could almost fix this problem instantly. DHO’s, screens, having Maxey and McCain both run off ball actions, you name it. Not only this, but he would fix a leaky defense who needs a ton of help. Like Maluach, though, I think his fit with Embiid isn’t bad at all either. Embiid would be able to take a few possessions off from the post, where Murray-Boyles loves to play from. Embiid would be able to sit outside as either a mismatch punisher, stretch big, or situational driver and keep defenses guessing while still putting less stress on his injured knee. Both could operate as offensive hubs both from the top of the key and in the post. Sure, CMB has very real issues shooting the ball, but you can have a player who struggles to shoot. Sixers fans are just scarred by when Doc Rivers threw lineups out there who relied on Tobias Harris being an above average 3 point shooter. You don’t need to run the Celtics’ 5-out system, and the Thunder just proved this. Build a solid defensive core and have multiple sources of playmaking. To me, CMB has a low end outcome of Lakers Julius Randle, with much stronger defense and a bit slimmer, and a high end outcome of Draymond Green. He’s that good.

Noa Essengue, the 6'9 forward who hails from France and is currently play in Germany is another player in the range of a trade down. Essengue is THE developmental pick of this draft. He has some of the most upside, but also might end up being the bust that you think of when looking at why the team that picked him is 11th in their conference in 5 years. “They picked Essengue over (blank)?!?” is a sentence I could absolutely see someone saying come 2030. However, these guys still get picked for a reason. Essengue is just 18, being a couple days older than Cooper Flagg, who caused me to have a small existential crisis due to him being the first major prospect younger than me. Long forwards, like Essengue, are players you can usually take and mold to your liking. Usually, the teams that draft them aren’t so good at pottery, but when it works? Man, the upside is crazy. Essengue comes with some pre-installed NBA traits that some of these guys don’t. He’s already a willing driver, and boasts an absurd free throw rate, a key sign for NBA playability. Not only that, but he’s already a decent free throw shooter, hitting 73% of his shots from the charity stripe. He knows how to get free and into a good spot to receive passes, which seems trivial but it’s something that Sixers forwards have been absolutely horrible at in these past few years. He isn’t afraid to shoot the ball (though, he doesn’t shoot it well-yet) but also has passing vision that’s more developed than plenty of project picks. The problems with Essengue, outside of his rawness, are largely due to questions on where exactly he fits in the NBA, and especially on the Sixers. He’s a long 6'9 forward-that’s nice, but if he can’t shoot, does that make him a 4? Definitely not. He isn’t a great post defender, and is way too light to guard a lot of the NBA’s bulkier forwards, and especially when it comes to double big lineups. One thing he has above the projects is that his European stats-which I can never really understand-actually look pretty good. 12 and 5 on 56% shooting looks good even in the NBA. Deni Avdija put up 4 points a game on 40% shooting and got drafted top 10. Could I see him playing like Avdija? Kind of! I think his low end profile is something like Darius Bazley (remember him?) and his high end profile is almost Pascal Siakam like? He’s long, loves driving, and will take a few years to click. I don’t see Essengue being the pick, especially since Morey is kind of drafting for his job, but he deserves a shout.

Another player I could see being around in a trade down situation is Arizona’s Carter Bryant, who is a tall forward with long arms who…wait, is that every player in this trade down spot? Kind of! Carter Bryant is a lot different though. While the famed 3&D label is usually thrown around to describe a whole lot of players who either don’t do the 3 or don’t do the D. Carter Bryant certainly looks like he’ll be able to do both from day one, which is impressive since he’s coming out after his freshman year. He shot 37% from 3 and flashed all sorts of defensive ability at Arizona. The casual fan may point out that Bryant put up just 6.6 points per game in his lone collegiate season, but I would respond that he was pretty much built to translate to the NBA. He played just 19 minutes per game, so he was never going to put up crazy numbers. Combine that with Caleb Love’s world renowned shot chucking ability and that explains his lack of production. I do have some concerns, though. I seem to remember another one-and-done forward who put up measly stats in a small role in college. Patrick Williams ring a bell? They even matched each other in win shares at 2.5! I think this is a really dumb comparison that I just made. First off, Carter Bryant is not raw. He’s one of the most NBA ready college freshman I can remember. While he certainly won’t be dribbling into tween-tween hesi pulls, Carter Bryant will be a plus offensively from day one. He’s a great shooter and cutter, two things the Sixers could certainly use if they wish to make Embiid’s job easier. Every year, I crown a player as being what the Sixers could have used out of Tobias Harris. Last year, it was DaRon Holmes, who…tore his Achilles in preseason. I think Carter Bryant is that guy this year. I have his low end outcome being mid-career Trevor Ariza and his high end outcome being a less bulky, better shooting version of Aaron Gordon.

Overall, I don’t expect a trade back, but if they do, I’d imagine they’d get a later pick or two. I won’t waste your time by profiling all of the countless options, but I’ll name a few possible picks in the 20s:

• Adou Thiero, Arkansas
• Will Riley, Illinois
• Nique Clifford, Colorado State
• Cedric Coward, Washington State
• Noah Penda, France
• Drake Powell, North Carolina
• Liam McNeely, UConn
• Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton
• RJ Luis Jr., St. Johns
• Hansen Yang, China
• Kam Jones, Marquette

You may even be able to take one of these guys in the 2nd round at pick 35. All in all, I think the Sixers’ main goal should be preparing for life without Embiid but also doing their best to reduce Embiid’s workload, both offensively and defensively. In the 2024 playoffs, Embiid had the highest usage rate and contested the most shots per game. With this, he averaged 33 points and 5 assists to go along with having a better DFG% than just about anyone. They cannot afford allowing Embiid to have that type of work load again, both for his short term and long term health. Most players they could take should be able to help him with this, and it wouldn’t be a bad idea to stack up on a few young guys rather than one great one.

Conclusion

The Sixers really, really need to nail this draft.

They got lucky. Jared McCain was a hit of a pick, even if he only played a few games last year. Grimes was a good pickup. They lucked into not only a top 6 pick but a top 3 one, and they did it in a draft class that’s deeper than almost any recent one I can recall.

Daryl Morey and Nick Nurse are fighting for their jobs. In fact, many would argue one or both should already be gone. This is a pivotal offseason. While the Sixers aren’t completely toast if they make a mistake or two this summer, it really hurts their short and long term outlook.

This will be a very active offseason for the NBA, and while it may be quieter for the Sixers than some other teams, it should be fun to watch.

See you by July 6th!