Are The Phillies’ Nerfing their Best Slugger?

Initially published to Substack on 6/15/25 Are The Phillies’ Nerfing their Best Slugger?

After Mattingly took over there have been some changes to the lineup. The most notable change has been Kyle Schwarber batting leadoff. I have never been a fan of having your biggest power threat protect likely your team’s worst hitter and on-base threat. It’s also a 100% guarantee he’ll be batting with no one on base at least once.

Anyways, there’s a decent sample size 90 PA, so let’s see what the number tell us.

There is a pretty drastic drop off in production when Schwarber is batting leadoff, not only individually, but as a team as well.

As a team, in 20 games batting leadoff the Phillies average 3.9 Runs/Game, and when batting 2nd the Phillies average 4.10 Runs/Game.

Individually, while he’s walking a bit more than usual, the number that jumps out at me are the XBH% & HR%.

So it’s pretty clear that other teams are not letting Kyle Schwarber beat them as shown by the BB% bump, and they are going after the next batter. This is also evidenced by the (3) Intentional Walks vs (0) IBB batting in the 2 Hole.

Other notes — Schwarber’s leadoff BABip of .400 (career avg of .265- high .305) is running a bit of a temperature so there’s been some good fortune. A sign that could mean his Hit Tool will diminish further.

It will be interesting to see how the Phillies manage this and address this at the Trade Deadline.

For the time being, it appears the Phillies have successfully nerfed their best Slugger by batting him leadoff with no protection behind him.

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MLB Analysis:

• Should the Phillies bring the Millville Meteor home? Published Jun 04, 2026
• The Phillies Are Out of Daycare — My Tin Foil Hat Thoughts on the Phillies Letting Rob Thomson Go Published May 02, 2026
• Asked at Work: How Do You Fix the Phillies? Published Apr 24, 2026
• Phillies — April Math: The Phillies Are Running Out of Margin Published Apr 21, 2026

Free Agent Evaluations:

• Luis Arráez — ‘…If we have a need at 1B or 2B or a platoon need, I would offer 1 year between $10,849,690.01 to $13,032,355.78…’ Published on Dec 18th 2025. On 2/10/26 signs with San Francisco Giants for one-year, $12M.
• Kyle Schwarber — ‘Ultimately when it’s all said and done, I think you could see a +10%-15% bidding debit + State & Local Income taxes debit applied to a market price. Max market + max debit could put this around $29.2M AAV / 4 years…when teams like the Phillies and Mets are tied to a couple aging contracts, you start to see a window where teams extend on the years to put this one over the top’ Published Nov 3, 2025 … Philadelphia Phillies signed for 5 years, 30 Mil AAV on 12/9/25
• Max Kepler — ‘From the looks of it, Kepler made a large approach changes in 2025. He was a B-Grade offensive LF producer in the 2nd Half, and not all that rate was entirely tied to his Run Tool…do you due diligence, and if reports are good on character/makeup I would be comfortable at 1yr/$1.4–1.68mil.’ Published on Jan 3 2026… On January 9th 2026 Kepler was suspended for 80 games for PEDs
• Jurickson Profar: “Based on his 1st & 2nd Half BAbip I think you get closer to the .243/.360/.434…*I’d recommend a 1-year, $6.75 million deal, with the possibility of a 2-year, $14 million deal…I’m not buying into the slugging breakout, especially given the stark home/away splits. I understand he’ll probably get a bigger deal, which I’m fine with.’ Published 11/23/24…*On 1/23/25 Profar signed with the Braves for three-years, $42 million. On 3/31/25 Profar received an 80-game suspension
• Gary Sánchez — ‘*I would be comfortable at 1-year/$2,451,813.70.’ *Published on 1/1/26. On 2/11/26 Sánchez signs Brewers for $1.75M

International Scouting Reports/Evaluations :

• Cody Ponce — ;Depending on what your team relays to you in terms of their expectations on timelines to improve these mechanical/stamina issues, a 2–3 year investment could makes sense, provided there’s a commitment from both player and organization to mechanical adjustments, conditioning, and development support. Two potential approaches emerge…’ Published Aug 25, 2025. Toronto Blue Jays signed Ponce on a 3 year/ $30 mil contract on 12/11/25
• Kazuma Okamoto — “Obviously do your due diligence, but if you have a positional need at 3B/1B/LF with a home field that benefits RHH pull side power I would be comfortable at 3 years/$60,842,636.31’ Published December 26th 2025. Signed with Toronto for 4/$60M
• Munetaka Murakami — ‘**I am comfortable with 5 years/$60M with a club option of $15Mil. I see this as a contract similar to Brent Rooker. I am not going above the Rooker deal. If I can develop a position player out of him great, but that’s going to come as a result of my organization’s work with him.’ Published on Dec 16, 2025 … Murakami signed with CWS for 2 years/$34M on 12/21/25.**
• Sung-Mun Song was identified in Bozzy Baseball Blog’s bi-weekly KBO Rates & Ranks Report as a great producer (5th best in KBO). He was featured in nearly every bi-weekly KBO R&R Report. He even reached elite production in R&R Report #9… On 12/19/25 signed with the San Diego Padres