Breaking Down World Series TV Metrics

Nielsen has been collecting such data since 1973.

Photo Credit: MLB.com

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston Astros will face off in the 2017 World Series, marking the first time that these teams have met in the postseason since 1981. Game One is on Tuesday at Dodger Stadium and will be televised on FOX. While I’m sure FOX wished the Fall Classic would feature the New York Yankees and Dodgers, home of the two biggest U.S. markets based on TV households, the network still received a pretty decent consolation prize. That is, Houston is the seventh-largest market based on TV Households.

Regardless, FOX executives are on one knee praying (metaphorically and literally, probably) that this year delivers in terms of TV ratings and continues the momentum, so to speak, from the 2016 World Series’ ratings.

So, in my latest piece, I will provide a brief description of important TV metrics; the history of the World Series on TV; and how each World Series, more or less, has fared throughout history in regards to TV metrics.

Primer on Rating & Share

Nielsen Media Research, the entity that compiles audience measurement statistics, defines a rating as “the estimated percent of all TV households or persons tuned to a specific station.”

Comparatively, Nielsen defines a share as “the percent of the Households Using Television (HUT) that are tuned to a specific program or station at a specified time.”

The below picture best highlights how to calculate ratings and shares, so I will save you any additional explanation.

Altogether, it is important to point out that ratings and shares are percentages, NOT whole numbers. Put another way, a 4.0 rating (the rating for Game 4 of the National Championship League Series) means that four percent of all TV Households in the United States tuned to TBS. Finally, media outlets that cover sports TV ratings will report a game’s overnight ratings. “Overnight” covers the live viewing of the game and time shifted viewing within the same broadcast day.

History of Televised World Series

There have been four total television networks that have aired the World Series since 1968*. NBC hosted for the first nine years (1968–1976) then ABC was welcomed into the mix, alternating years with NBC from 1977 until 1989. Thus, ABC served as the exclusive broadcast partner for the odd-numbered years (1977, 1979, 1981, 1983, 1985, 1987, and 1989), while NBC served as the exclusive broadcast partner for the even-numbered years (1978, 1980, 1982, 1984, 1986, and 1988).

From 1990 until 1993, fans watched the Fall Classic on CBS. However, they did not have the luxury of watching any postseason baseball in 1994, as the playoffs were cancelled in September of that year because of an ongoing labor dispute between MLB and its Players Association. Nevertheless, the 1995 World Series was seen on ABC and NBC, the first and only time that the World Series was broadcasted on two different networks. 1995 stands as the last time that ABC hosted. From 1996 until 1999, the exclusive broadcast partner alternated between FOX (1996, 1998) and NBC (1997, 1999).

Finally, FOX has served as the broadcast partner since 2000. The network will continue to fill that role through 2021 after reaching an eight-year agreement with the league in 2012. The price tag? Approximately $4 billion in total, or $500 million per year.

*Data has only been available since 1968.

World Series TV Ratings Flourish Then Drop; Will They Rebound?

The first ever televised World Series occurred in 1939. Nielsen began recording TV ratings and shares in 1968 and began recording total TV viewers in 1973. Thus, for the purposes of dissecting the World Series TV ratings the timeline will begin in 1973. As such, the Fall Classics reigned supreme in the 1970’s and 1980’s, regressed slightly in the 1990’s, then faced a rather sharp decline in the 2000’s. Let’s break down the numbers from each era further by looking at the average rating, share, and total viewers. All figures are rounded estimates.

1973 to 1979

Viewers: 36 million

Rating: 29.1

Share: 52

1980 to 1989

Viewers: 33 million

Rating: 25.5

Share: 43

1990 to 1999 (no World Series in ‘94)

Viewers: 27 million

Rating: 18.4

Share: 31

2000 to 2009

Viewers: 19 million

Rating: 12.1

Share: 20

2010 to 2016

Viewers: 16 million

Rating: 9.2

Share: 16

All of the top-rated individual World Series are from the 1970’s and 1980’s as you might expect. For instance, the 1978 World Series (New York Yankees & Los Angeles Dodgers) and the 1980 World Series (Philadelphia Phillies and Kansas City Royals) tied for first, both resulting in a 32.8/56 rating/share. Additionally, the tenth-best World Series rating/share came in 1972 (Oakland Athletics and Cincinnati Reds), which brought home a 27.6/58 rating/share.

While figures declined throughout the 2000’s, the 2004 World Series between the Boston Red Sox and St. Louis Cardinals was the era’s pinnacle, resulting in a 15.8/26 rating/share and averaged over 25 million viewers. Of course, that series was one in which the Red Sox broke the Curse of the Great Bambino. Not far behind was the 2001 World Series between the Arizona Diamondbacks and New York Yankees. That series boasted a 15.7/26 rating/share and averaged over 24 million viewers.

As you may discern, the 2010–2016 era was certainly a low point for FOX and the MLB, as the 2012 World Series between the San Francisco Giants and the Detroit Tigers was the worst-ranked series of all time. It resulted in a 7.6/12 rating/share and only averaged around 13 million viewers. However, last year’s World Series between the Chicago Cubs and Cleveland Indians brought matters back to life, so to speak. The 2016 Fall Classic churned out a 12.9/22 rating/share and averaged nearly 23 million viewers, all of which were the best since the 2004 World Series.

And in the scope of individual World Series games, the Cubs-Indians series was a significant milestone. For starters, Game 7 — an incredible, extra-inning contest that featured late-game heroics across the board and resulted in the Cubs’ first World Series title since 1908 — had over 40 million viewers, the most since Game 7 of the 1991 World Series between the Atlanta Braves and Minnesota Twins that had 50-plus million viewers. Not to mention, its 21.8 rating for Game 7 was the highest single game rating since Game 7 of 2001 World Series between the Arizona Diamondbacks and New York Yankees.

While my entire piece has focused on World Series TV figures, it is important to note, albeit briefly, the figures from the 2017 League Championship Series as to possibly predict how this year’s World Series will fare in terms of the aforementioned metrics. According to a FOX Sports PR graphic, the American Championship Series (ALCS) between the Yankees and Astros, a seven-game affair, resulted in an average 4.9/10 rating, which was 81% better than last year’s five-game ALCS average between the Cleveland Indians and Toronto Blue Jays. Of course, it helps that New York is the top rated TV market in the country and that Houston is no.7.

Strictly in terms of viewers for the National League Championship Series (NLCS), the numbers declined compared to the previous two seasons.

The complete five-game NLCS averaged 6.2 million viewers on TBS, down 11% from last year’s six-game series on FS1 (7.0M) and down 22% from the four-game Mets-Cubs series in 2015 (7.9M).

Source: Sports Media Watch

This all begs the question: Will the 2017 World Series top 2016? It’s highly unlikely, because of the hoopla surrounding the Cubs’ magical run. Will the 2017 World Series at least continue in the right direction? I believe so.

At the very least, both teams registered over 100 regular season wins and are situated in well-saturated TV markets, so that oughta count for something.

2017 World Series

Game 1: 8.7 rating, 14.97 million viewers on FOX.

Game 2: 11.0 overnight rating, 15.48 million viewers on FOX

Game 3: 10.4 overnight rating, 15.66 million viewers on FOX

Game 4: 10.6 overnight rating, 15.4 million viewers on FOX

Game 5: 12.8 overnight rating, 18.94 million viewers on FOX

Game 6: 15.1 overnight rating, 22.23 million viewers on FOX

Game 7: 18.8 overnight rating, 28.22 million viewers on FOX

[Additional Sources: Sports Media Watch; Baseball Almanac; Nielsen; FOX Sports PR; Deadline Hollywood]