Vision 2030 and Authoritarian Modernization: The Paradox of Economic Development Without Political Freedom in Saudi Arabia

Introduction

Saudi Arabia is going through a paradoxical transformation. Saudi Arabia plans to fix its internal and external reputation by increasing economic development and social freedoms in the country while maintaining strict political repression. Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 is a social reengineering project introduced by crown prince Mohammed Bin Salman. Vision 2030 is an ambitious plan launched in April 2016 with the core goals of diversifying the economy and reinforcing the legitimacy of the Al Saud family’s regime. They plan to do this by investing in entertainment, tourism and sports to create a more varied job market. Vision 2030 also promises to improve inequalities in Saudi Arabia by increasing women’s and migrant workers rights.

The paradox in Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 comes from the term authoritarian modernization. The main idea of authoritarian modernization is if the government delivers economic success and a better quality of life, the people will accept authority under restricted political freedoms. While Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 will most likely create short-term regime stability through economic expansion and selective social liberalizations, to what extent do these policy changes affect the long-term stability of the Saudi Arabian regime?

Background

Vision 2030 is a strategic response, proposed by Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, to three converging crises that threatened the Al Saud family’s traditional source of legitimacy. Economic vulnerability from a dependency on oil, damaged international relations and domestic youth discontent led to this necessary change.

The Al Saud family’s rule over Saudi Arabia started in 1932, when King Abdulaziz ibn Saud unified the regions of Nejd and Hejaz proclaiming himself as King of Saudi Arabia. King Abdulaziz and his sons have ruled since. Saudi Arabia is governed by the royal family with the king having supreme power over the state. Saudi Arabia is an Authoritarian rentier state which is a state that depends heavily on an external source for most of their revenue. In Saudi Arabia’s case this external source is oil. Oil makes up more than 90% of Saudi Arabia’s public revenue and the Royal Family owns and controls almost all of the oil reserves. The political authority in Saudi Arabia relies on an authoritarian bargain to maintain its control by redistributing public policy to win support from elites and a domestic political reform to maintain economic stability.

This heavy reliance on oil created instability over time as the oil markets fluctuated. In 2014, oil prices dropped by over 50% due to an increase in supply. Rapid technological advancements in fracking caused a boom in the United States oil production. Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries refused to decrease production. As a result, the average price of a barrel of oil fell from over $110 in mid-2014 to around $50 by the end of 2014. This 2014 oil crisis was a huge wake up call for Saudi Arabia and emphasised the need to diversify their economy. Around this time Saudi Arabia was also facing backlash from the West.

Internationally, there were high tensions surrounding Saudi Arabia because of their relation with the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Most of the September 11th hijackers were Saudi citizens, including the mastermind of the attacks al-Qaida leader Osama Bin Laden. In 2018, Jamal Khashoggi, a US-based journalist walked into a Saudi consulate in Istanbul and was murdered by the agents of the Saudi government. Jamal Khashoggi was an outspoken critic of Saudi Arabia’s government. This action caused global outrage and eliminated any remaining trust the West had in Saudi’s current regime. Following the murder, the United States, Canada and Europe all placed sanctions against Saudi Arabia.

Domestically, Saudi Arabia was facing an internal crisis. Saudi Arabia has an extremely young and growing population with an average age of only 25.2 years old. In 2016, this new generation was unsatisfied with the career opportunities offered in Saudi Arabia. The old system of governance had lower paying private sector jobs with long hours. These jobs relied on lower-cost foreign workers leading to an unemployment rate of 12.3% for 15–39 year olds. Beyond this, the poor education system caused a significant gap between skills taught in school and skills needed for private sector work. The old system where oil money could buy citizens loyalty had collapsed.

In response to all three of these crises Mohammed Bin Salman launched Vision 2030 with the core goals of diversifying the economy away from oil, creating social and economic opportunity for the young population and rebuilding trust with the West to reinforce the legitimacy of the Royal Family.

Vision 2030’s Strategy: Economic Diversification and Sportswashing

Vision 2030 uses the dual strategy of economic diversification and sportswashing to address domestic discontent among young citizens, reduce the country’s overreliance on oil and reshape the international image of Saudi Arabia. Vision 2030 was launched on April 25, 2016 by Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman. Vision 2030 is effectively a 10-year plan for Saudi Arabia. This plan consists of many Vision Realization Programs (VRPs). The VRPs are the driving force behind Vision 2030, they adapt and align with the changing needs of Saudi Arabia to bring the Vision to life.

The VRPs of the Vision 2030 program are:

• Financial Sector and Development Program
• Housing Program, National Transformation Program
• Public Investment Fund Program
• Fiscal Sustainability Program
• Human Capital Development Program
• Pilgrim Experience Program
• Health Sector Transformation Program
• National Industrial Development and Logistics Program
• Privatization Program
• Quality of Life Program.

Through these programs Saudi Arabia plans to create Gigi-projects like NEOM, the red sea project and Qiddiya to foster tourism in the country. With project NEOM the regime plans to turn the northwest desert region of Saudi Arabia into a futuristic megacity. NEOM costs over $500 billion and will transform the desert into a hub for AI, green energy and new living models. The plan to reduce the reliance on oil has already started with over a trillion dollars invested into Vision 2030. The Red Sea Project is an ambitious, luxury tourist destination that will be located on the west coast of Saudi Arabia. The “purpose built” destination Qiddiya is another mega-project that is set to be the ultimate destination of sports, entertainment and culture. These projects are designed with the hope of creating new exciting jobs for the youth population.

Saudi Arabia has already started increasing social freedoms in their country by promoting entertainment, sports and tourism to foster a modern and open society. Saudi Arabia has invested billions of dollars into Saudi owned sports leagues like Saudi Pro League and LIV Golf. Saudi Arabia spent over a billion dollars recruiting foreign players to join their league including the likes of Christiano Ronaldo. Beyond Saudi owned leagues, Saudi Arabia has also purchased multiple boxing and wrestling events, international concerts, comedy shows, the premier league team Newcastle United and they have interest in purchasing a majority stake in a Formula 1 team. On top of all this, Saudi Arabia is scheduled to host the 2034 FIFA World Cup.

This new age in Saudi Arabia was kicked off by a huge arrest made by Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman. In 2017, hundreds of Saudi princes, ministers and businessmen were detained at the Ritz as part of an anti-corruption purge. The arrests played very well with young Saudis because it enacted on the promise of change Mohammed Bin Salman had made in 2016. This also instilled the message that decision making in Saudi Arabia was concentrated. Evidence suggests, all of this investment in spectacle and sportswashing is a highly calculated move by the regime to create a sense of belonging and community for the youth.

The regime is using these nationalist themes to distract people from the corruption happening in Saudi Arabia. The increase in social freedoms, job opportunities and foreign affairs is an attempt by Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman to solve the three crises his country faced in 2016 by diversifying the economy with sports, tech and tourism, managing foreign relations by contributing to the global economy with large international events and silencing the discontent and rebellion of its people by giving them social freedoms like increased entertainment through cinemas and a sense of nationalism through Saudi Arabian based leagues. Saudi Arabia’s attempt at creating jobs can be seen as another tactical way the regime uses small freedoms to grow their workforce and maintain citizens’ reliance on the regime.

The Authoritarian Bargain — Social Freedoms Without Political Rights

Vision 2030 operates as an “authoritarian bargain”. The “bargain” is expanding social and economic freedoms in Saudi Arabia while simultaneously reinforcing restrictions on political expression. The concept of an authoritarian bargain reveals the regime’s strategy of substituting consumption and entertainment for genuine rights and civic participation. It is important to closely examine the advantages offered by Vision 2030 to gauge whether they offer genuine freedom or merely the illusion of freedom. Vision 2030 increases social freedoms by opening up cinemas and increasing entertainment opportunities through comedy shows and sport events. In addition to social freedoms, Saudi Arabia is promising more transparency within the government, increased immigrant rights, and the appearance of support for women’s rights without meaningful changes in ideology.

Laws around migrant workers and the Kafala system have been changed because of Vision 2030. The Kafala system, a system that ties migrant workers legal residency and job to a specific employer creating an unfair power dynamic between the worker and employer, is being partially dismantled for private sector workers. This will legally allow affected migrant workers to change jobs without employers permission. This move is deceptive. The dismantling of the Kafala system for private sector works may sound like the end of this slavery adjacent system but sadly this is not the case. This law only applies to private sector workers leaving 3.7 million domestic workers unaffected by the law and still in the Kafala system.

As of 2017, the Saudi Arabian government has granted women the right to drive, travel, obtain passports and work with the permission of a guardian. The increase in women’s ability to travel and involvement in the workforce is not a legitimate attempt by the regime to pursue equal rights in their country. To start, the women in Saudi Arabia make up a large percent of their workforce that is completely untapped. Saudi Arabia will need the women in their countries economic output to keep up with the ambitious economic demands of Vision 2030. On top of that, Saudi Arabia clearly doesn’t see women as equal to men, these laws are in place just to please international and domestic pressures. The PSL law in Saudi Arabia clearly states, “a woman owes her husband obedience in return for financial support.” Hierarchy is still legally entrenched in the culture.

According to the fundamentals of an authoritarian bargain, these new laws are actually meant to justify the actions of the people in power. Many independent female activists and other outspoken individuals are still facing decades of prison time for speaking out against the unfair treatment of women. Activists Nourah al-Qahtani, Sukaynah al-Aithan and Fatima al-Shawarbi are all facing over 30 years in prison for social media posts that advocated for women’s rights. Since 2013, over a hundred people in Saudi Arabia are facing prison time for expressing freedom of speech, 40 of them doing this over social media. The Saudi Arabian regime is sending the message that these laws are “gifts” from your government and not rights you can demand. If the regime truly wanted a change in their country they would free activists who peacefully protested for their own rights.

Saudi Arabia has effectively separated social speech from political speech. An example of this is from the political protests in 2011 to 2012. The protests were demonstrations against discrimination, political marginalization and a lack of reforms. The government responded with financial handouts totalling to $130 billion towards citizens that complied with the current regime. This was followed by a 15% pay increase to all government employees. Saudi Arabia is not afraid to use corruption to maintain political control.

On the surface these freedoms granted to women and migrant workers look like an honest attempt by Saudi Arabia to modernize their country, but previous actions by this regime suggests that these rights are another calculated attempt by the regime to silence the masses. The true idea behind Vision 2030 is; consume, enjoy, be productive but don’t think critically about authority.

Applying Amartya Sen’s “Development as Freedom” to Saudi Arabia

Amartya Sen’s framework of “Development as Freedom” exposes the fundamental instability in Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 approach. Genuine development requires all five of Sen’s proposed freedoms rather than a selective two or three as Vision 2030 provides. Sen argues that real development isn’t just about an increase in GDP, it’s explained by five interconnected personal freedoms. The five distinct freedoms are; political freedom, economic facilities, social opportunities, transparency guarantees and protective security. Each of the five freedoms depend on each other, you can not just pick one or two freedoms and have holistic development.

Vision 2030 attempt at development is not a complete failure. Vision 2030’s attempt at development satisfies two of these freedoms and promises a third. Social opportunities are undoubtedly expanded on by the inflow of sporting events, concerts and the opening of cinemas. The implementation of futuristic projects like NEOM and the Red Sea project will surely expand the country’s economic facilities. Vision 2030 also promises to increase transparency within the government. Unfortunately, Saudi Arabia’s history of vague laws and unfair trials indicates that this promise will most likely not come to fruition. Even if this promise is kept, Vision 2030 will only satisfy three out of five of the necessary freedoms. These freedoms are interconnected and for true development all five of these freedoms must be kept simultaneously. You cannot pick and choose which freedoms you want to implement for development.

Vision 2030’s approach of developing Saudi Arabia is paradoxical. Professor Safran Almakaty explains that “Vision 2030 is a social reengineering of the country with the goal of increased government control.” Vision 2030 is a form of authoritarian modernization. The main idea of authoritarian modernization is that if a government delivers economic success and a better quality of life, the people will accept their authority. Saudi Arabia aims to create a socially vibrant state that is economically modern but with a politically repressive government. According to Amartya Sen’s framework you cannot build a truly moderate and modern nation through authoritarian modernization on a foundation that restricts fundamental individual freedoms. Saudi Arabia’s goal of becoming a developed country through Vision 2030 is a paradoxical transition. This theoretical framework helps us assess the long-term viability of Vision 2030’s approach.

Assessing Long Term Regime Stability

While economic expansion and social liberalization may provide short-term stability through material satisfaction and youth engagement, the absence of political freedoms creates contradictions that will threaten long-term stability. Initially, Saudi Arabia’s international image will improve because of their increased involvement in international entertainment, youth buy-in will increase through sports and a stronger national identity, and economically Saudi Arabia will diversify by reducing its dependency on oil. But as time goes on, the stability in the country will waver. The educated, economically empowered youth will eventually demand a political voice.

The “gifts not rights” approach to laws by the regime will lead to resentment in communities and threaten the loyalty of citizens to their government. Historically speaking, economic benefits alone have not been enough to create lasting authoritarian legitimacy. The 2034 World Cup will be a critical test to see if Saudi Arabia is a truly developed nation according to Sen’s framework. Can the Saudi strategy of using sports spectacles to build a modern identity, if the foundation of that identity is based in an authoritarian structure that restricts fundamental individual freedoms, truly fulfill the promise of a moderate and modernized nation in the eyes of the world?

Conclusion

Economic expansion and social liberalization in authoritarian states can temporarily substitute for political freedoms in maintaining regime stability, but this substitution is fundamentally unsustainable and will never result in a truly developed nation. When Vision 2030 was launched by Mohammad Bin Salman in 2016 it had the goals of decreasing the economy’s reliance on oil, satisfying the ever-growing youth population and improving international relations to ultimately strengthen the control of the Al Saud Royale Family. Vision 2030 is Saudi Arabia’s attempt to solve these crises through economic expansion and social liberalization throughout the country.

Vision 2030 is actually an authoritarian bargain by the regime focusing on increasing social and economic freedoms to reinforce the authoritarian control and political restrictions in the country. The authoritarian bargain will be successful in the short term because it meets the material needs of each citizen, but in the long term, Saudi Arabia’s attempt at authoritarian modernization will not lead to long term development. Vision 2030 does not follow Amartya Sen’s framework for development and ignores the fact that the five freedoms necessary for genuine development are interconnected.

The separation of social freedoms and political freedoms by Saudi Arabia create an unstable foundation. Amartya Sen’s framework reveals the limitations to authoritarian modernization as a government model. Saudi Arabia will serve as a critical case study to evaluate whether authoritarian modernization through economic prosperity is sustainable in the 21st century. Vision 2030 may be successful at diversifying Saudi Arabia’s economy and modernizing its social landscape, but without incorporating political freedoms and democratic participation, it risks creating a golden cage for its citizens. Prosperous but fundamentally unfree, modern in appearance but authoritarian at its core and ultimately, unstable.

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