Who will predict 2026 events better — me or AI?

This year I added to ChatGPT two more AI models as my competitors: Google Gemini and X Grok.

1. Main threats to humanity.

Me: (1.1) Totalitarian countries, (1.2) totalitarian left-liberal ideology and (1.3) islamification of Western word will remain relevant, but unlike previous years, the resistance of the Western world will increase and be crowned with partial success.

None of AI models supports my opinion most probably to its anti-woke character. But they mentioned some other challenges.

1.4 The geopolitical “Great Realignment”.

ChatGPT: Ongoing wars (Ukraine, Middle East) and frozen conflicts risk escalation.

Gemini: The world is moving away from a single globalized system toward a fragmented landscape of regional blocs.

Grok: Ongoing wars and terrorism.

All this is right, but all ongoing wars are started by totalitarian regimes, defragmentation of western world is caused by left-liberal ideology and the opposition to it, and terrorism is a direct consequence of islamification.

1.5 Misinformation, division & loss of shared reality.

Me: Information space became online almost completely and controls either by mainstream media (mostly left-liberal), huge technological corporations (the same) or state authorities. Most major information sources became unreliable, they separate people instead of uniting them around western values.

ChatGPT: AI-generated content blurs reality. Trust in media, science, and institutions declines. People retreat into epistemic bubbles. A society without shared facts cannot deliberate morally — only mobilize emotionally.

Gemini: The massive scale of AI-generated misinformation is making it increasingly difficult for societies to agree on basic facts.

Grok: Eroding truth, surveillance, and social media amplify divisions, making collective action harder.

So, our diagnoses are similar, but I blame left-liberal ideology instead of new technologies. AI models don’t care about.

1.6 Climate change & environmental stress.

Me: Climate change reasons are natural but not anthropomorphic. Environmental stress is real, but it’s caused by totalitarian and underdeveloped countries.

ChatGPT: The problem is less ignorance than unwillingness to accept shared responsibility across borders and generations.

Gemini: The world has reached a crossroads where the physical reality of climate change is colliding with political and economic exhaustion.

Grok: Biodiversity loss and ecological breakdown.

2. Will Russian-Ukraine war come to the end in 2026? If yes, who will win?

Me: I repeat my last forecast. Neither Trump nor anyone else will be able to persuade either Ukraine or Russia to compromise. As a result, the war will end with a victory for Ukraine by the end of the year. The resilience of Ukrainian troops on the front line, the growth of the Ukrainian defense industry including drone and missile production, the intensification and expansion of shelling of Russian territory, the degradation of Russian industry and infrastructure, chaos in governance, economic sanctions, external military pressure, and growing discontent among the population will lead to the collapse and disintegration of the Russian state.

ChatGPT: Stalemate continues with diplomatic negotiations. No decisive winner by 2026 — the war is likely to remain unresolved militarily.

Gemini: Neither side is likely to “win” in 2026.

Grok: It would likely end in a stalemate or frozen conflict, with Russia retaining control over occupied territories like Crimea and parts of Donbas, but Ukraine maintaining independence and possibly receiving security guarantees.

3. Will Russia attack Baltic countries?

Me: I expect local military attacks and provocations, but not a full-scale invasion.

ChatGPT: A direct Russian military attack on the Baltic states in 2026 is very unlikely. However, tensions, hybrid provocations, and serious security concerns will continue. There’s no credible indication of an imminent conventional invasion — but neither is the threat zero.

Gemini: As of January 2026, the consensus among intelligence agencies and military analysts is that a full-scale Russian invasion of the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) is highly unlikely this year. While tensions are at their highest point since the Cold War, several strategic “firewalls” are preventing an open conflict in 2026.

Grok: In summary, while tensions are high and Russia poses a long-term threat, evidence points to 2026 being a year of heightened hybrid pressure rather than outright invasion.

4. Will China attack Taiwan?

Me: Yes. It will attack Taiwanese warships and begin firing missiles.

ChatGPT: Probability of some kind of military escalation in 2026: significant but not dominant. Probability of a full-blown invasion in 2026: low to moderate.

Gemini: The consensus is “High Tension, Low Immediate Probability” for a full invasion. The real risk for 2026 is an accidental escalation.

Grok: While 2026 is flagged as a critical year with some risk of escalation, most sources assess an outright attack as unlikely without major provocations.

5. Will islamification of Western world continue?

Me: It will continue at an accelerated pace. The aggressive Muslim diaspora, together with the left-wing parties, will continue to terrorize the indigenous population, subjugate the authorities and control the media.

Most islamificated countries will be UK, Germany, France, Sweden, Belgium, Canada and Australia. Especially hard situation is in UK and Australia. UK, Germany and France have strong anti-islamic political parties, it could help.

Unlike previous years, islamification will encounter increasing resistance from the sensible part of society. In particular, the results of the right-wing parties will improve significantly in all upcoming elections and they will take leading positions.

ChatGPT: Yes, the processes often labeled “Islamification” will continue in 2026. Three structural reasons:

5.1 Migration pressure has not disappeared — wars, instability, and demographic growth outside Europe persist.

5.2 European elites remain divided. Many still confuse tolerance with surrender, pluralism with relativism, compassion with absence of boundaries.

5.3 Native European demoralization: low birth rates, weak cultural confidence, and moral exhaustion matter more than Islam itself. A confident civilization integrates minorities. An insecure one fragments.

Gemini: The Western world is becoming more religiously diverse, but it is not becoming “Islamic.” The dominant trend in 2026 remains secularism.

Grok: In summary, yes, the process often described as “Islamification” — primarily through population growth and visibility — is likely to continue in 2026 at a steady, incremental rate, based on current demographic trajectories.

It’s interesing, that previous years AI models didn’t notice any islamification at all. But only ChatGPT comes close to its real reason— left-liberal ideology.

6. Will mass illegal migration continue?

Me: Migration to major Western countries will slow down, but insignificantly, and mass deportations won’t start. There are two exceptions: USA and Japan.

ChatGPT: Illegal migration will continue in 2026, particularly in: ✔ Southern Europe (Mediterranean routes) ✔ UK Channel crossings ✔ Movement from parts of Africa toward Europe.

Gemini: In 2026, mass illegal migration remains a significant global challenge.

Grok: In summary, mass illegal migration to major Western countries is not expected to continue in 2026 at previous scales.

It’s strange, but only Grok rejects reality. And all AI models denies that the main reason preventing migration stopping is again the left-liberal ideology.

7. Will revolution in Iran happen?

Me: Yes, it already starts and will win in some months.

ChatGPT: Current expert assessments give a low to moderate probability (not zero, but not high) that the Islamic Republic will completely collapse in 2026.

Gemini: Most geopolitical forecasts for 2026 categorize the situation as a “state of irreversible weakening.” Even if the regime manages to crush the current street protests, it is facing a “terminal loss of authority.”

Grok: In summary, yes — a revolution is already happening in Iran in 2026, with protests escalating into a nationwide challenge to the regime. Its success is uncertain, depending on regime resilience and external factors, but 2026 is poised as a transformative year.

P.S. In the coming years, starting in 2026, we await global and dramatic events. The problem is that all the main contradictions are now absolutely irreconcilable, and these conflicts can only be resolved by force. It is impossible to peacefully persuade:

Russian Russia to abandon the destruction of a free Ukraine — Russian culture, along with its bearers, has irreversibly degenerated;

Communist China to abandon its annexation of a free Taiwan — Chinese culture is too pragmatic to rely on abstract values;

Millions of left-wing liberals in Western countries to reconcile themselves to the freedom of thought and speech they voluntarily renounced;

Islamic Hamas to abandon the destruction of a free Israel, and Islamists to abandon their attempts to subjugate free countries and peoples, since Islam is inherently aggressive;

The governments of totalitarian countries to voluntarily relinquish power, since their people (with a few exceptions, such as Iran and Belarus) are no longer capable of resistance.

The forces of evil can only be defeated by military or other violent means. But all these problems are already far too advanced. Only the free, sane, and determined part of Western society is on our side, and everyone else is against us. The intellectual freedom of European culture is against the mental slavery and cowardice of the rest of the world. Until now, freedom has triumphed, and I hope it will triumph this time too. But at a very high price.