Bitcoin Analysis (March 5, 2025) | More Downside Ahead for BTC?!

I’ve decided to publish a weekly Bitcoin analysis, sharing my personal outlook on BTC’s future. In these reports, I will cover technical analysis, on-chain data, and upcoming news events that could impact Bitcoin’s price action.

This article will be updated weekly, so if you want to stay ahead of the market, make sure to check back every weekend for the latest insights.

Bitcoin Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis (March 5, 2025)

In recent days, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market initially saw a 10–15% surge following the news of the U.S. Digital Asset Reserve Fund. However, on March 4, 2025, markets took a sharp downturn as the U.S. implemented new import tariffs, triggering a major sell-off across financial markets.

Now that we have an overview of recent market events, let’s dive into key upcoming news and on-chain data trends.

Market News & Events Impacting Bitcoin & Altcoins (March 5 — March 10, 2025)

Market News & Events Impacting Bitcoin

The chart below highlights key U.S. economic events with the highest impact on the crypto market. However, the spotlight remains on Trump’s latest tariff policies, which could have significant implications for inflation in the U.S.

Why does this matter? Higher inflation means the Fed is less likely to cut interest rates, which reduces liquidity in risk-on markets like crypto. This is one of the main reasons Bitcoin and other digital assets have been struggling. Keep a close eye on these macroeconomic developments!

On-Chain Analysis of Bitcoin (March 5, 2025)

This week’s on-chain analysis will focus on three key metrics: 📊 Sell Bubbles 📊 Bitcoin: Realized Price — UTXO Age Bands 📊 UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD)

1. Sell Bubbles — Who’s Selling? (March 5, 2025)

On-Chain Analysis of Bitcoin

The Sell Bubbles indicator shows that most of the BTC being sold in the past 30 days was initially bought at $106,000 and $92,000. This suggests that short-term holders are selling at a loss, while long-term holders are still holding strong.

💡 Key takeaway: Since long-term holders are not actively taking profits, the larger bullish trend may still be intact.

2. UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) (March 5, 2025)

On-Chain Analysis of Bitcoin

The URPD metric indicates that Bitcoin saw low trading volume between $87,000 and $72,000 during its last price surge. Now that BTC has fallen back into this range, there’s a high probability that Bitcoin will “fill the gap.”

💡 Key takeaway: BTC has no strong support until $72,000. A drop to this level is likely before any potential recovery.

3. Realized Price — UTXO Age Bands (March 5, 2025)

On-Chain Analysis of Bitcoin

Analyzing the Realized Price — UTXO Age Bands, we see that BTC holders who bought 3–6 months ago have a breakeven price of $80,000.

These holders have been in profit for an extended period, and if BTC drops to $80,000, they will likely react in one of two ways: ✅ Hodl and reduce selling pressure → Lower BTC supply ✅ Buy more to lower their cost basis → Higher BTC demand

💡 Key takeaway: BTC is likely to decline towards $80,000-$72,000, but unless major negative news emerges, this correction could set the stage for the next bullish leg.

Final Thoughts (March 5, 2025)

🔴 Short-term outlook: More downside risk with support at $80,000-$72,000 🟢 Long-term outlook: Long-term holders are still confident, keeping the bigger bullish trend alive

Let’s see how the market unfolds in the coming days! 🚀