2026 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Outsiders

2026 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Outsiders

Rueben Bain is the favourite to win this award, and Caleb Downs is a very close second. But neither of them will win it (probably).

Bain landed in Tampa Bay, and YaYa Diaby is no Akheem Mesidor. Diaby has recorded 19 sacks in 51 games for the Bucs, Mesidor recorded 12.5 in 15 games last season! How much of that was because Mesidor was playing opposite Bain is impossible to quantify, but Bain had 9.5 of his own. Offensive lines weren’t leaving Mesidor unblocked to negate the new Buccaneer.

The Bucs’ defensive front will have to outperform their 2025 numbers for Bain to post DORY numbers. Tampa’s 35.8% success rate ranks 8th in the 2025 rankings, but was 3.7% behind the league-leading Browns.

Downs is arguably the most intuitive and naturally gifted defensive back in the class. He certainly has the skill set to outperform the rest of this rookie class, but there are questions about his speed. AI modelling suggests Josh’s younger brother should be a box safety in the NFL, but the Cowboys might not see it that way.

All that means anyone could end the season as the Defensive Rookie of the Year. There are some outrageous long shots in with a chance of bagging the prize, but there’s one clear leader.

Sonny Styles — 10/1

Yes, he is the best player in the 2026 draft class, but somehow Styles isn’t the outright favourite for this award. What makes that even stranger is that he’s been drafted by a Super Bowl-winning defensive coordinator, Dan Quinn.

Styles is a linebacker who began his playing career at safety, so Quinn could line him up almost anywhere on the field.

During his four years at Ohio State, Styles recorded an interception, forced three fumbles, made nine sacks and notched up 22.5 tackles for a loss!

Versatility is key when it comes to lining up a successful defense. Quarterbacks take their cues from the personnel on the opposite side of the line of scrimmage, as well as the formation they’re in.

6-foot-5 Styles could line up at the line of scrimmage, in the middle of a zone defense or even in the slot.

Styles’ athleticism is nightmare fuel for opposing quarterbacks. His 4.46 speed means he can blitz or drop into coverage from any spot in the formation.

Identifying what Styles will do adds another variable for quarterbacks to process at the line. Quarterbacks will identify if a defense is in a run defense or a passing formation pre-snap. If that defense changes after the ball has been snapped, the quarterback has to reevaluate while they go through their checkdowns. That will really condense a quarterback’s time to throw or force them to scramble instead.

There’s no real comparison between Styles and anyone Quinn has previously coached because the former Buckeye’s potential is off the scale. He does share some physical similarities, at least, with Legion of Boom safety Kam Chancellor.

But Styles is even bigger and faster than the four-time Pro Bowler and Super Bowl winner. Only a series of unfortunate events can prevent the 21-year-old from being crowned DROY.

Lee Hunter — 200/1

Hunter fell to the 49th overall pick, but his ceiling is higher than almost everyone in the class.

Defensive linemen don’t normally win this award, but Hunter is not normal. He is a smaller defensive tackle and didn’t produce a huge amount of sacks in college, just 7.5 in 52 games. But he didn’t struggle to get into the backfield, recording 32 tackles for a loss in 52 games!

How the Panthers use Hunter will be key; he lined up at both nose tackle and defensive tackle in college. That would put him below Bobby Brown in the current depth chart, but Brown played fewer than 34% of the snaps in 2025. Carolina’s defensive front could see even more rotation in 2026.

Hunter is 11 pounds lighter than Brown, and his explosiveness could quickly lift him to the top of the depth chart. If Hunter can get to the quarterback once he gets into the backfield, he will have a very impressive rookie season.

Avieon Terrell — 80/1

If there’s one person who should challenge Styles for the most exciting defensive player in the 2026 class, it’s Terrell. The Clemson product is A.J.’s younger brother, and the Falcons veteran says his younger sibling is “ahead of me at every phase of football”.

The Falcons added Avieon to a roster that already included A.J. and another Clemson graduate, long snapper Phillip Florenzo.

Terrell Jr.’s superpower is the impact he makes when he tackles. He rattles ball carriers when he makes contact. The dominant collisions not only stop forward progress, but they can also send the ball flying too.

The former High School sprinter forced 5 fumbles in 2025; the entire Falcons defense only forced 12 last season!

Jeff Ulbrich needs to find a way to get this turnover machine on the field, even if it means sitting his older brother for a few snaps!

A.J. Haulcy — 100/1

On the subject of defensive backs who blow the ball carrier up when they tackle, former LSU safety Haulcy loves to dominate collisions.

He is going to make some highlight reel plays in his rookie season. The one thing that could prevent him from demonstrating his full array of talents (347 tackles, 4.5 tackles for a loss, 10 interceptions and 4 forced fumbles in 48 games in college) is how the Colts use him.

Haulcy is very much the odd man out in the Colts’ backfield. Sauce Gardner, Cam Bynum and Chavarius Ward are all more ball hawks than big hitters. The rookie might only get on the field for run downs; he could be a very effective box safety, but that would mean he spends a lot of time on the sideline.

Dani Dennis-Sutton — 100/1

Dennis-Sutton is taller than Myles Garrett and 16 pounds lighter than the record breaker, but he’s the Garrett of the class! According to NextGen Stats, Dennis-Sutton is the most athletic EDGE defender in the 2026 class!

The Nittany Lion clocked a 4.63-second 40-yard dash, 0.01 quicker than Garrett’s time! David Montgomery and Jakobi Meyers clocked the same time as Dennis-Sutton at their respective combines! The words “athletic freak” spring to mind.

The Packers have certainly got themselves a special talent, and new defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon is going to have fun using Dennis-Sutton opposite Micah Parsons. If Gannon can turn the 2026 Packers defense into the 2022 Eagles defense (and not the Cardinals defense he has been coaching since 2023), then Dennis-Sutton is going to bag plenty of sacks.

Treydan Stukes — 75/1

Stukes is another versatile defender who could line up anywhere on the field. Last year at Arizona, he lined up in the slot, as a deep safety, at the line of scrimmage and as a cornerback on the outside!

By the end of the season, the 24-year-old had obtained a 90.1 grade from PFF and was ranked the 6th out of 896 cornerbacks analysed.

At 6-foot-2 and 200 pounds, Stukes is one of the bigger defensive backs in the class, and he’s fast with it. His 4.33-second 40-yard time is the 96th percentile of this cornerback class!

Last season, Stukes recorded a sack, a tackle for a loss and four interceptions. His speed and size mean the Raiders can use him all over the field, and if Rob Leonard uses him properly, he’s going to be a walking highlight reel.

Jermod McCoy — 75/1

McCoy was projected as the second cornerback off the board, then the rumours about his knee began. If the degenerative cartilage in his knee can survive his full rookie season, then McCoy is going to be one of the best shutdown corners in the league, let alone this class.

At his best, McCoy allowed a 41.9% completion rate and a passer rating of just 15.2! That’s not a cornerback quarterbacks will want to target. The 20-year-old is going to vastly improve the Raiders’ pass defense provided he can stay healthy.

Peter Woods — 50/1

Any rookie is going to be worth watching in a Steve Spagnolo defense; a rookie defensive tackle who can line up at running back is definitely going to be appointment viewing.

Woods isn’t the new Dontari Poe, but the chance he could be used in similar situations to Poe makes him absolutely box office. Poe was 346 pounds during his playing career; Woods weighs just 310.

In his final year at Clemson, Woods made 3.5 tackles for a loss and 2 sacks. When Poe was at his peak in KC, he recorded 6 sacks and 4 tackles for a loss.

Woods clocked a 4.74-second 40 time (the same as Lil’Jordan Humphrey and Dalton Schultz). That explosiveness means Spagnolo can line him up anywhere along the defensive line.

With Chris Jones, George Karlaftis and Drue Tranquill all rushing the passer alongside him, Woods could put up numbers in his rookie season!

Dillon Theineman — 22/1

Theineman was placed above Caleb Downs on some experts’ big boards. And now that he’s landed in Chicago, he could eclipse the Ohio State stud’s rookie season in Dallas.

Da Bears’ safeties were a huge reason why their defense worked well in 2025. Jaquan Brisker, Kevin Byard and C.J. Gardner-Johnson combined for 10 of the team’s 23 interceptions and four sacks!

None of those guys is still in Chicago, but the combination of Thieneman and Super Bowl LX winner Coby Bryant could actually be an improvement. Bryant made 4 picks last year, Thieneman had 2 interceptions, 3.5 tackles for a loss and a sack.

Theineman clocked a lightning-fast 4.35 40-yard time at the combine, but his brain works even faster than his feet. He processes what is going to happen so quickly that he often arrives at the ball at the same time as the receiver.

Middle linebacker Devin Bush should be a significant improvement on the impressive Tremaine Edmunds; as a result, the Bears’ defensive backs are going to eat in 2026!