2025 Toyota Save Mart 350: Best bets to win, longshots

On Sunday, July 13, the NASCAR Cup Series heads to the road course of Sonoma Raceway for the Toyota Save Mart 350. This will mark the 20th race of the regular season and the third round of the In-Season Challenge.

Last weekend, Shane Van Gisbergen had the best weekend of his young NASCAR career, leaving Chicago with a sweep after winning the Xfinity Series race and the Grant Park 165 Cup Series event.

Van Gisbergen comes into this weekend’s race as the odds-on favorite to win. He’s followed by Kyle Larson, Michael McDowell, Ty Gibbs and William Byron at most sportsbooks.

In addition to the goal of winning the race, the mid-season tournament enters its third round where there are only eight drivers left. Surprisingly, most of the top Cup drivers have been eliminated after the first two rounds.

With that said, let’s take a look at some of the best bets to win the race, as well as some longshots that have good value.

Shane Van Gisbergen (+145, Fanatics)

I’ll be completely honest here, I don’t love this pick, not because I don’t think he’s the favorite, but the value just isn’t there. I don’t feel you will get the payout you deserve even if he does win the race, but I would be foolish to not mention him also.

Van Gisbergen has won two out of the three road courses the Cup Series has run this year and has won three out of his nine total road course races according to driveraverages.com, meaning he has won 33 percent of his road course races. The +145 odds imply he has almost a 41 percent chance to win the race. Unlike Mexico City and Chicago, Sonoma is a track that the Cup veterans are very familiar with and the advantage isn’t quite as large for Van Gisbergen as it was at those other two tracks.

He should be the favorite to win the race, I am definitely not denying that, but I feel these odds should be closer to +200 to be considered fair. I personally can’t blame you if you still put your money on SVG this weekend, but I will be fading him to find better value.

Kyle Larson (+600, FanDuel)

Now these odds are a little more fair. Kyle Larson might be one of the few drivers that have a real shot at upstaging SVG on Sunday. In 10 Sonoma starts, Larson has two wins, two Top 5’s, four Top 10’s, and a 13.0 average finishing position. He’s won two of the last four races at this track and has a 6.25 average finish over that span.

However, it is worth noting that Larson has struggled on road courses this year. Larson was 32nd at COTA, 36th at Mexico City, and 13th last week at Chicago. Sonoma is the one road course where Larson has had plenty of success at though. I am confident he will be fast this weekend if nothing else.

The +600 odds imply that Larson has slightly over a 14 percent chance of winning the race. He has won three out of his last 20 road course races, which comes out to 15 percent. Not a fantastic value play, but you are getting fair odds on this one at the very least, making Larson a solid option for this weekend.

Ty Gibbs (+1400, FanDuel)

Ty Gibbs ran well at Mexico City and was runner up at Chicago last weekend. He has five straight Top 14 finishes with two Top 3’s over that span.

However, Gibbs has just four Top 10’s this year and needs a win to get into the playoffs. He has not finished better than 18th in his two Sonoma starts. With that said, he is quickly becoming one of the best road course racers in the Cup series and this type of track is his best opportunity to get that first career win to also put him in the playoffs.

The +1400 odds on FanDuel give Gibbs less than a 7 percent chance to win the race. This is also a driver that hasn’t won a race yet, so it’s certainly understandable to fade Gibbs here. I personally will sprinkle a little bit on the young driver, who is a strong candidate to be close to the front near the end of this race.

William Byron (+1800, FanDuel)

William Byron’s points lead in the driver standings is just 13 points over teammate Chase Elliot. He’s had a rough stretch over the past month with four finishes of 27th or worse in the last five weeks. The last two races saw Byron score his first DNF’s of the season.

Byron has just one Top 10 finish in six Sonoma starts and four results of 19th or worse. There clearly is not a lot to love here, as he’s going to a track that he’s not had much success at and he is also coming into this weekend ice cold.

However, at +1800 odds, FanDuel is only giving Byron a 5 percent chance to win the race. This is a driver that is capable of winning on any given weekend. He does have two road course wins in his last 20 starts, which comes out to a 10 percent win rate. Do I think Byron wins? Probably not, but the value is too good for me to pass up.

Other notes and drivers to consider

If you are someone that likes to wait until after qualifying to put your bets in, no driver has won from further back than the 12th starting position in the last 10 races at Sonoma. In the last five races at Sonoma, Chevrolet has won three races and Toyota has won two.

Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing have two wins each in the last five races at Sonoma, with Trackhouse Racing winning the other. With this information, here are some other drivers to consider.

Chase Elliot (+1400, Fanatics), Tyler Reddick (+1400, FanDuel), Christopher Bell (+2100, FanDuel), Ross Chastain (+3000, FanDuel), Alex Bowman (+3700, FanDuel), Chase Briscoe (+3700, FanDuel), Daniel Suarez (+5500, FanDuel), Denny Hamlin (+7000, Fanatics).