U.S.-Iran Draft Agreement Reached. Strait of Hormuz to Be Reopened, Two Major Crudes Plunge 7% in Short Term

Arab media reported that a draft agreement between the U.S. and Iran has been reached, causing the two major crude oil futures to plunge in the short term. WTI crude futures once dropped over 7% to $89.65, while Brent crude futures also fell more than 7% to $96.

News of the latest peace talks between the U.S. and Iran has surfaced. Al Arabiya reported that a draft agreement has been reached, which allows for the free opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the clearing of sea mines; navigation through the strait must be restored within 30 days.

The agreement stipulates that the U.S. commits to easing the blockade of Iranian ports and allows Iran to sell and export oil. The deal will provide specific sanctions waivers for Iranian oil exports and will consider easing sanctions on Iranian oil in phases, depending on Iran’s implementation of its commitments. The agreement also mandates continued nuclear negotiations to reach a long-term consensus.

Driven by rising expectations of a U.S.-Iran peace deal, Brent crude futures fell below the $100 per barrel psychological level. Chris Weston, Chief Strategist at Pepperstone, pointed out that if Brent prices approach $90 per barrel, short-term inflation expectations will moderately decline, and market bets on implied Fed rate hikes for 2027 will also cool, creating a recovery window for global risk assets.

Weston also cautioned that the upcoming release of the U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index this week will be a critical test for inflation expectations.

The market generally expects headline PCE inflation to rise to 3.8% year-on-year in April, roughly twice the Fed’s 2% policy target. Falling oil prices may dampen the dollar’s reaction to the data: “Current long positions in the dollar are already quite crowded. A pullback in inflation expectations driven by falling energy prices could trigger some dollar bulls to take profits.”

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