The Russian Army Keeps Getting Weaker

Let’s not fool ourselves. I know exactly what you’re thinking when you see the headlines about Ukraine striking Moscow’s oil refineries or see the reports of Russia’s staggering casualties — I think it too. You see a glimmer of hope, a sign that maybe, just maybe, this nightmare is starting to turn. But if there’s one thing President Volodymyr Zelensky has made crystal clear, it’s that we need to look at this with clear eyes. Because the reality is a brutal paradox: as the Russian army gets weaker, the threat to all of us gets greater.

The Core Paradox: Weakness Breeds Escalation

President Zelensky said it plainly on Friday, and I urge you to listen to his words as if your life depends on them — because in Ukraine, it literally does. “Putin is becoming weaker,” he stated. “He is weakening politically, on the battlefield, and physically. That is why he may intensify strikes against us, against our people, with missiles and drones” .

I need you to sit with that for a second. We often assume that weakness leads to surrender or compromise. But with a leader like Putin, the opposite is true. A wounded, cornered animal is the most dangerous kind. The Russian army keeps getting weaker, but this isn’t a signal that the war is winding down. It’s a signal that the next few weeks could be some of the most violent yet. This isn’t just my opinion — this is the warning coming from the highest office in Ukraine, a man who has seen every trick the Kremlin has to offer. You have to understand that when Putin feels his grip slipping, he doesn’t pull back — he lashes out. He wants everything around us to burn because he has nothing else left to offer his people .

Why the Russian Army is on Its Heels

So, what is the evidence that the Russian army is, in fact, weakening? It’s not just rhetoric. The numbers and the battlefield reports paint a damning picture.

Bleeding Dry: The Manpower Crisis

Putin’s army is bleeding to death. I’m talking about losses so staggering that they’re impossible to sustain. According to Western intelligence estimates, Russian total casualties since the full-scale invasion began have reached approximately 500,000 . The monthly losses are astronomical, ranging from 30,000 to 35,000 troops. To put that in perspective, Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief stated that in May alone, Ukrainian drone units eliminated or wounded more Russian invaders than Moscow managed to recruit during that same period .

The Kremlin is trying to plug this hole, but the dam is breaking. The rate of enlistment in the Russian contract military service fell by 20% in the first quarter of 2026 compared to last year . Even with massive financial incentives — one-time payments of up to $80,000 and debt forgiveness of up to $140,000 — they can’t find enough people willing to die for Putin’s ambitions . The Institute for the Study of War confirms that Russia’s casualty rates have recently exceeded their recruitment rates .

And the cracks are showing elsewhere. Russia is suffering the most acute labor shortage in its history because they are sending so many men to the front or they’ve fled the country. Defense plants are running at maximum capacity, but the civilian economy is imploding, with food prices skyrocketing more than 18% . You don’t need to be an economist to see that this is an empire that’s breaking from the inside out.

Groundhog Day on the Front Lines

You might see headlines about Russia grinding forward, but the reality is that their “advances” are more like a crawl through molasses. And in some places, they’re actually going backward. Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War have noted that in April and May of this year, Russian forces actually lost more ground in Ukraine than they gained .

The vaunted Russian military machine is stuck. Their massive offensives have been “largely halted” by Ukrainian forces, and their advances are proceeding at an “extremely slow pace” . So, what’s their brilliant strategy? Infiltration tactics — sending small groups of soldiers behind enemy lines to hold positions until reinforcements arrive. It’s a desperation move, not a sign of strength .

The “Dead Zone” Changes Everything

What is stopping the Russian army in its tracks? It’s the weapon that has changed the face of modern warfare: the drone. Ukraine’s superiority in tactical drones across the entire theater of operations has created an impassable “dead zone” along the front lines . This is the single most crucial factor that has neutralized Russia’s main advantage — its numerical superiority in troops and equipment .

While the Russian army is losing its ability to advance, Ukraine is hitting it where it hurts most: behind the front lines. The campaign of medium-range strikes against Russian logistics, military equipment, and manpower has “degraded Russia’s ability to conduct offensive operations” . I want you to remember this when you hear about the strikes on Russian soil — it isn’t just about symbolism. It’s about systematically dismantling the machine that is trying to destroy Ukraine.

The War Comes Home: Strikes on Moscow

You can’t ignore the symbolism of what happened on Thursday. Ukrainian drones struck Moscow’s oil refinery in Kapotnya for the second time in a week, in what Russian media described as one of the largest attacks on the Russian capital in recent years . The attack was so significant that it shut down all four of Moscow’s airports for most of the morning . This is the moment when the war truly came home to the Russian people. The refinery covers some 40% of Moscow’s needs for gasoline, and these strikes are going to cause real economic pain and shortages .

This is a direct result of Ukraine’s growing ability to pierce Russia’s air defenses and strike deep into its territory. Russia is no longer safe, and that is a major psychological blow to the regime. This is exactly what President Zelensky means when he says our partners are starting to understand that Putin is a madman who just wants to watch the world burn. But the fire is now at his own doorstep.

The World Must Respond: The Ramstein Effect

In the face of this Russian weakness and the threat of intensification, the world is responding. The latest Ramstein-format meeting produced real results for Ukraine’s air defense capabilities. Partners announced $4 billion in new military assistance for Ukraine . Crucially, nearly $1 billion of that is being directed toward the PURL initiative to finance the purchase of Patriot missiles and interceptors . Germany, Norway, the Netherlands, and Sweden have stepped up.

This is the lifeline Ukraine needs right now. Because as Putin grows weaker, his attacks will only become more desperate and more brutal. The additional Patriot systems and interceptors are not just about shooting down missiles; they are about saving lives.

The Future: More Pressure, More Sanctions, and a Stronger Position

President Zelensky has also made it clear that Europe must “fully engage so that Ukraine has a strong position” . He is demanding full engagement on sanctions — without exceptions — and on the confiscation of Russian assets, and on financing Ukraine .

The path forward is clear. We must continue to see the Russian army for what it is: a wounded, dangerous beast that is slowly bleeding to death. We must not be fooled by the intensification of its strikes. They are not signs of strength; they are the frantic death throes of a regime that is failing on the battlefield and at home. You and I, we have a responsibility to see this clearly and to continue to support Ukraine as it fights not just for its own survival, but for the security of the entire free world.

The events of recent days in Ukraine and Russia have radically changed the picture of the war as well as attitudes toward the Russian aggressor.

There was recently a telling sign of the shift: Russia, for the first time in almost 20 years, held its festive annual parade on Red Square without any tanks or missiles. Putin had to cancel the heavy military equipment for fear of a Ukrainian strike.

In recent weeks, perceptions of Russia have changed across the world. Russia’s ideological expansion was not strengthened by developments on the cultural front either: A recent protest action by the Russian rock band Pussy Riot disrupted government efforts to insert Russia into European cultural politics through art at an event in Venice.

Putin has also suddenly changed his rhetoric regarding Ukraine. He no longer calls the authorities in Kyiv “drug addicts” and “neo-Nazis” who have “taken the entire Ukrainian people hostage.” Instead, he now politely says “Mr. Zelensky” when referring to Ukraine’s president. He even seems to hold forth the possibility of a meeting with him.

The reasons are clear. The Russian dictator has genuinely felt the power of the Ukrainian military. Its strikes deep inside Russia are inflicting serious damage on Russia’s war machine and the public’s morale. Meanwhile, Russia tries to use its missiles and drones chiefly to terrorize Ukrainian civilians and destroy such cultural treasures as the Chernobyl Museum, with far less effect on Ukraine’s military.

Ukrainian forces have now destroyed the oil terminal in Tuapse four times in two weeks. They have also struck the Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga. As far east as the Urals, they are knocking out air defense systems faster than Russia can replace them.

Alongside the dramatic explosions in Tuapse and Ust-Luga, there is another important sign of Russia’s slide toward defeat. Thanks to Ukrainian drones, the tactics of warfare are changing. The logistical control established by these Ukrainian aerial forces has led to numerous strikes on enemy equipment behind the lines near Mariupol. It has also enabled fire control over roads around Donetsk.

Thus, massive strikes more than 1,200 kilometers deep into Russian territory, carried out by the Ukrainian army with drones, have demonstrated the effectiveness of this strategy. It has changed not only Putin’s presidential rhetoric — as he fears Ukrainian drones over Red Square — but also the map of the Russian-Ukrainian front itself.

We can likewise state that the Ukrainian army is changing the tactics of warfare by implementing a model of technological siege against occupied territories. Instead of the classic encirclement of cities by infantry and tanks, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are moving toward total fire blockade of enemy logistics through the mass use of drones.

As a result, all territory occupied by Russian troops and beyond Ukrainian control will sooner or later become lethally dangerous for Russians. Donetsk and Luhansk may ultimately be encircled — not by heavy Ukrainian equipment, but by Ukrainian drones. Such is the logic of modern warfare introduced by Ukraine.

The frontline reality is even harsher. In April, for the first time since 2024, Russia lost more territory than it captured. And for the fifth consecutive month, Ukraine has been killing Russian servicemen faster than Putin can recruit their replacements. Overall, during the years of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as many as 500,000 Russian soldiers have been killed, with an even larger number wounded.

All of this — including the change in the rhetoric by Russia’s president, the ability of Ukrainian forces to disrupt the enemy’s logistics within Russia, and the Russians’ gradual loss of territory — shows a weakened Russia, possibly heading toward a humiliating conclusion to headed toward a .