Who Deserved In, Who Didn’t, and Who Can Wait: Inside the 2026 Hall of Fame Vote

Justice at Last for Carlos Beltrán

Carlos Beltrán should have been elected to the Hall of Fame long ago. When Scott Rolen was inducted in 2023, the ballot was hardly overflowing with obvious first-ballot Hall of Famers. Beltrán had more than enough on-field credentials to be a first-ballot selection, but his involvement in the Astros’ 2017 sign-stealing scandal left a permanent blemish on his résumé. The fallout cost him a managerial job with the Mets and delayed his Hall of Fame election by three additional ballots.

Statistically, Beltrán’s case is undeniable. He ranks fifth all-time in home runs among center fielders, trailing only Willie Mays, Ken Griffey Jr., Mickey Mantle, and Andre Dawson. He also sits fourth in home runs by a switch-hitter, behind only Mantle, Eddie Murray, and Chipper Jones. He was not linked to performance-enhancing drugs, and his postseason résumé only further strengthens his candidacy.

While Beltrán was likely one of many involved in the Astros’ scheme, he appeared to absorb a disproportionate share of the blame, in large part because 2017 was his final MLB season. The extended delay in his induction amounted to an unnecessary punishment. At the end of the day, the conclusion is clear: Carlos Beltrán is a Hall of Famer.

Why Andruw Jones Didn’t Need to Get In Yet

Jones still had another year of eligibility remaining, which made the writers’ push to induct him in 2026 fairly surprising. He was never a slam-dunk candidate, particularly given that he now owns the second-lowest batting average of any non-pitcher in the Hall of Fame. The timing also felt strange considering the 2027 ballot is expected to be relatively thin, with Buster Posey, who finished his career with just over 1,500 hits, projected as the top first-ballot candidate.

Since becoming eligible in 2018, Jones had seen his vote total rise by roughly eight percent year over year. Based on that trajectory, last year’s increase alone may have been enough to push him over the line in 2027. Instead, he received a 12% jump this year to secure induction.

Jones was essentially a lock to get in next year regardless. The real question is whether his career demanded immediate enshrinement when the following ballot was shaping up to be light. Absolutely not.

The Next Hall of Famers From This Year’s Ballot

Based on the trajectory of this year’s vote and recent trends, three candidates now appear to be firmly on track for future enshrinement: Félix Hernández, Chase Utley, and Dustin Pedroia. None are likely to be elected next year, but all seem destined for Cooperstown eventually.

Hernández began his candidacy last year with 20.6% of the vote and surged to 46.1% this year. That jump was the largest by any unelected candidate since Luis Aparicio in 1983, who went on to be inducted the following year. At his current pace, thanks to a projected light ballot ahead, Hernández is on pace to reach the Hall of Fame as early as 2028.

Utley experienced a similar surge, skyrocketing to 59.1% this year, the highest total among candidates who were not elected in 2026. Like Hernández, he is also trending toward induction in 2028.

Then there’s Pedroia. His path will likely take longer than the other two, but an 8.8% increase this year moved him firmly in the right direction. At his current rate of growth, Pedroia is now projected to reach enshrinement around 2033.