Using the Heat of the Moment to Warm-Up Frozen Conflicts: Moldova and Ukraine

Moldova — one of the poorest countries in Europe, with plenty of its citizens obtaining their neighbor’s (Romania) passports to get away from this post-Soviet country into the EU where they can find economically and socially progressive environment. Moldova is a part of the EU’s Eastern Partnership program, meaning that ideally, sometime in the future, this country should comply with all of the requirements to become an EU member.

However, Moldova, much like Ukraine and Georgia, is in a state of a frozen conflict with Russia. The Transnistria strip, located between Moldova and Ukraine is autonomous, with its own political institutions and a life also frozen in time, looking more like a long-standing USSR enclave, than a real autonomous region.

To some it might be a region forgotten in time, but to Russia it was a major military goal in the initial phases of the Ukraine invasion, when it sought to open a route all the way from Donbass to Odessa and then to Transnistria.

The red flags appeared in Moldova — they finally realized that it is high time to unfreeze this conflict which could provoke a Ukraine scenario for them. Together with President Zelensky they talked about Kremlin’s plans to fashion an impeachment in Moldova, using the Transnistria strip as a pretext. Sure enough accusations flew back from the Kremlin, saying that it is Moldova and Ukraine using this pretext as a pretext to invade Transnistria…

But why is it important? Because in a tiny Transnistrian village, just 2km from the Ukrainian border, is one of Europe’s largest ammunition storage sites. According to some analysts, there is around 22,000 tones of ammunition, which if it falls in the hands of the Ukrainian army, it could enable it to continue fighting for its land for a year more. The roughly 3000 Russian peacekeepers that are stationed in Transnistria would certainly not allow this, even though as a peacekeeping mission, their task is in no way connected to the Ukraine war. If President Zelensky and his Moldovan counterpart — Ms. Sandu, do decide to combine forces and kick Russian peacekeepers out, they in a true Kremlin spirit, will blow up the 22, 000 tones ammunition, creating an effect similar to an atomic bomb, with consequences felt in Europe, a threat good enough for Article 5.

Another question is does the Ukrainian army really need the ammunition? The reality is that all of what is stored there is at least 40 years old and comes from Czechoslovakia (a country that does not exist anymore!) and post-war Germany, so it could not be safe to be used by Ukrainian solders.

And last but not least, should the heat of the moment warm up the frozen conflict, and allow the 30 year old Transnistria problem to be solved once and for all thereby giving Moldova the much needed social security so it can develop economically and finally join the EU?