Game 7, NBA Finals

Game 7, NBA Finals

Image Credit: NBA

It’s the first NBA Finals Game 7 in 9 years, the absolute pinnacle of sports. Oklahoma City looks to put the final piece on a historic season while the Pacers look to finish one of the most exciting playoff runs ever.

I’ve looked back at the playoff runs by both teams that have gotten them a win away from the championship and applied that to what I expect the keys to the game and outcome to be, but in a Game 7 anything can happen.

Let’s dive in. Happy Game 7 to all.

Based on what we’ve seen so far in the playoffs:

From the Thunder:

We’ve seen the Thunder in a Game 7 already and they turned in an A+ performance, dominating Denver and stifling the best player in the world by unleashing Alex Caruso against him.

Home court advantage means a lot less in 2025 than it did even a few years ago, but the Thunder have the best in the league and earned it over the course of the regular season. The crowd is going to be deafening when the game tips off, but in the unique situation of a Finals Game 7 that could be just as likely to tighten the pressure on the Thunder rather as pumping them up. An early lead by the Thunder will be difficult for Indiana to come back from, if the team and crowd are building on each other.

The Thunder are also coming off of getting blown out. We’ve seen this once before in the playoffs too. The Timberwolves blew the doors off of OKC in game 3 of the Western Conference Finals. It can get forgotten since it was fleeting, but there was a stretch going into game 4 when it seemed like Minnesota could tie and take momentum in the series. The following game was also on the road but it was close late. The still young Thunder do not want game 7 to be close down the stretch with what Haliburton has done in these Playoffs.

From the Pacers:

Until Thursday night one thing we hadn’t seen so far in the playoffs is what the Pacers play like with their backs against the wall. The answer was emphatic. Now they need to prove that the bench players who have carried them in Game 6 can do it in a Game 7 on the road. Coming into the playoffs the eyes were on the Thunder to follow up an historically dominant regular season with a decisive playoff run and cement themselves as one of the best teams of the last 25 years, and enter a conversation about the best teams ever. Instead it is the pacers who have dominated their competition, never training in a series as they dispatched the rest of the East.

A lot has to go right for the Pacers to win this game. They need to be able to break the Thunder’s extended defense, limit SGA, and get excellent performances from Haliburton and Siakam. But it’s right there for them.

The Pacers have a lot of different guys that can come in and play hero for five minute stretches. Lately it’s been Toppin and McConnell. We’ve seen it from Mathurin in multiple games this season. Nesmith can go unconscious from three. Miles Turner has been really bad over the last three games, but he has the potential to find it in the biggest moment and is one of the few players who still feels like dry gun powder for the Pacers. The two remaining teams are the two deepest, but over the course of the playoffs the number of options for the Pacers have expanded, while the Thunder have tightened their lineup as this series has gone on. The Pacers are not known as a strong defensive team, but their depth, athleticism, and defensive rotations have effectively limited the Thunder’s role players. The Pacers can win this series if they continue to dominate bench scoring.

Haliburton seemed to bounce back from a Game 5 calf strain well in Game 6. He will need to be at his best in this one, but after the run of clutch performances he has put together during this run we would be crazy to expect anything less.

Keys to the Game:

Shai and Haliburton are the engines of their teams and J Dub and Siakam are the clear second options, but maybe the most important player for each team has been their lead defender: Andrew Nembhard and Lou Dort. Nembhard is guarding Shai during this series better than anyone NBA since he entered the MVP conversation last season. Dort is capable of eliminating any player he is matched up on. On top of the immense defensive load that both have carried that have also been critical components of their respective teams’ scoring threats; Dort from 3 and Nymbhard as a lead creator when the ball is out of Halliburton’s hands. I think whoever between the two has a better defensive performance will be the champion on Sunday night.

Emotions are also going to play a huge part in this game. Teams are often tight at the start of Game 7’s and the Thunder are the less experienced team. If they can withstand the early emotional ups and die and settle in like they did against Denver they have a great chance, but they’ve never faced pressure like this. Chet will need to be aggressive but controlled scoring against smaller defenders on switches, while taking care of the ball. Williams will have to give the Thunder a second shot creator to balance the offense and allow Shai to creates. Both have shown they are capable but have also struggled at times in this series. The player who has shown throughout the playoffs that when the stakes are the highest they elevate their game is Tyrese Haliburton.

Prediction:

Close game early with both teams going back and forth. Thunder take a 5–9 point lead into the half. Pacers stay close in the third and then close the gap. Haliburton hits a game winner.