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AR arash shabanpour

Why Bayesian Networks Are an Epistemology, Not Just a Statistical Tool

Why Bayesian Networks Are an Epistemology, Not Just a Statistical Tool

Aug 06, 2026 · 5 min read · 0 claps #bayesian-statistics #bayesian-networks #ai

SCI

PA Pascal Bercker

Russian Roulette Again — With 2 Bullets — Spin or Shoot?

Why an empty click makes pulling the trigger safer than spinning the cylinder again

Jul 31, 2026 · 4 min read · 4 claps paywalled #probability #bayesian-networks #russian-roulette

Russian Roulette Again — With 2 Bullets — Spin or Shoot?

SCI

PA Pascal Bercker

Probability Picks the MIT Lock Puzzle

A Bayesian network confirms a surprisingly simple answer.

Jul 10, 2026 · 2 min read · 7 claps paywalled #probability #math #bayesian-networks

Probability Picks the MIT Lock Puzzle

PA Pascal Bercker

The First Ball Was Red: A Hypergeometric Whodunit

A small Bayesian network shows why learning that three draws contained two reds and one blue raises the probability that the first ball was…

Jun 29, 2026 · 4 min read · 2 claps paywalled #probability #bayesian-networks #math

The First Ball Was Red: A Hypergeometric Whodunit

SCI

PA Pascal Bercker

Five Coins, Three Outcomes, One Trap - When Symmetry Misleads

Using a Bayesian network to unpack a Barry Leung solution to an Oxford MAT probability puzzle.

Jun 28, 2026 · 2 min read · 12 claps #probability #mathematics #oxford

Five Coins, Three Outcomes, One Trap - When Symmetry Misleads

UT Uttkarsh Solanki · Artificial Intelligence in Plain English

From Conversations to Safety Signals: Building an AI-Powered Pharmacovigilance Pipeline

Every year, millions of adverse drug reactions (ADRs) are reported by patients, healthcare professionals, and pharmaceutical organizations…

Jun 17, 2026 · 5 min read · 0 claps #ai-in-healthcare #bayesian-networks #genai

From Conversations to Safety Signals: Building an AI-Powered Pharmacovigilance Pipeline

SCI

PA Pascal Bercker

Urn Models and Their Application

Modeling the Classical Occupancy Problem with A Bayesian Network

Jun 14, 2026 · 3 min read · 5 claps paywalled #probability #urn #binomial-distribution

Urn Models and Their Application

SCI

PA Pascal Bercker

Counting Consecutive Girls: Indicator Variables vs. the Binomial Shortcut

How linearity of expectation survives where independence fails

Jun 12, 2026 · 4 min read · 0 claps #probability #bayesian-networks #math

Counting Consecutive Girls: Indicator Variables vs. the Binomial Shortcut

HUM SCI

PA Pascal Bercker

The July Sales Bonus Paradox

A Bayesian-network version of the classic two-in-a-row puzzle: when consecutive success matters, the middle position dominates.

May 19, 2026 · 4 min read · 0 claps paywalled #probability #puzzle #math-education

The July Sales Bonus Paradox

Probability Finally Makes Sense When You Stop Thinking About Numbers

Bayesian and Markov models become clear once you see probability as relationships — not isolated calculations.

May 19, 2026 · 2 min read · 0 claps #gmp #bayesian-networks #markov-network

SCI AI

PA Pascal Bercker

Can You Make This Fair? The Von Neumann Extractor

“I have a system to make any biased die give a fair result!” Really?

May 17, 2026 · 5 min read · 1 claps #probability #john-von-neumann #randomness

Can You Make This Fair? The Von Neumann Extractor

SCI

PA Pascal Bercker

Can You Improve Your Dice Roll?

The first player who fails to improve on his next roll loses.

May 14, 2026 · 4 min read · 0 claps #probability #math-puzzles #bayesian-networks

Can You Improve Your Dice Roll?

SCI

PA Pascal Bercker

Dice Game #1— Who Wins First?

A Quant Interview Question — Are You Smarter Than an 8-Year-Old?

May 10, 2026 · 3 min read · 6 claps #probability #quant-interview #bayesian-networks

Dice Game #1— Who Wins First?

HUM SCI

PA Pascal Bercker

Classical versus Bayesian Modeling With Bayesian Networks

Parameter Learning With Hiearchical Bayesian Networks - A Bayesian hierarchy of data, uncertainty, and hidden probabilities

May 07, 2026 · 10 min read · 2 claps #probability #bayesian-statistics #bayesian-networks

Classical versus Bayesian Modeling With Bayesian Networks

HUM SCI

PA Pascal Bercker

Make Them Unequal

Brilliant.org numerical puzzle — grade level 6th-8th grade

May 06, 2026 · 2 min read · 0 claps paywalled #education #education-technology #math-education

Make Them Unequal

SCI

PA Pascal Bercker

An Unexpected Quant Interview Question: No, I Can’t Figure It Out, But I can Model It!

Quick Response To Barry Leung

Apr 24, 2026 · 1 min read · 31 claps paywalled #quant-interview #expected-value #bayesian-networks

An Unexpected Quant Interview Question: No, I Can’t Figure It Out, But I can Model It!

AI

SI Sixing Huang

DuckBay: The Bayesian Knowledge Graph App

DuckDB + pgmpy + Bayesian Network Editor

Apr 23, 2026 · 10 min read · 163 claps paywalled #bayesian-networks #duckdb #knowledge-graph

DuckBay: The Bayesian Knowledge Graph App

PA Pascal Bercker

Think Bayesian Dice!

This comes from the second edition of this book: THINK BAYES 2e! by author and educator Allen Downey (with an accompanying website and…

Apr 15, 2026 · 5 min read · 7 claps #probability #bayesian-inference #bayesian-networks

Think Bayesian Dice!

HUM SCI

PA Pascal Bercker

Statistical Rethinking — With Bayesian Networks

Bayesian Parameter learning

Apr 06, 2026 · 5 min read · 29 claps #bayesian-statistics #bayesian-networks #probability

Statistical Rethinking — With Bayesian Networks

SCI

PA Pascal Bercker

I Am Not 6 Years Old, But I Can Solve This Probability Puzzle …

Barry Leung posted this puzzle today, asking, “Are you smarter than a 6-year-old?” Apparently, everybody is eager to prove they are smarter…

Apr 05, 2026 · 3 min read · 24 claps #probability #math-puzzles #bayesian-networks

I Am Not 6 Years Old, But I Can Solve This Probability Puzzle …

HUM SCI

PA Pascal Bercker

A Simple Numerical Puzzle

This is a simple numerical puzzle from the Brilliant.org educational website.

Mar 29, 2026 · 4 min read · 6 claps #probability #bayesian-networks #math-puzzles

A Simple Numerical Puzzle

PA Pascal Bercker

Rock, Paper, Scissors, Fire, and Water

I was reading Cole Frederick’s article on possible strategies for RPS + Fire + Water. I decided it would be a useful exercise to model this…

Mar 28, 2026 · 4 min read · 14 claps paywalled #probability #game-theory #nash-equilibrium

Rock, Paper, Scissors, Fire, and Water

LIF SCI

PA Pascal Bercker

An Exercise In Conditional Probability — From 1000 Exercises In Probability

This is not particularly difficult, but it’s important to pay attention to the sequence of events to get the model right. Let’s first get…

Mar 22, 2026 · 4 min read · 25 claps #probability #conditional-probability #bayes-theorem

An Exercise In Conditional Probability — From 1000 Exercises In Probability

SCI

PA Pascal Bercker

Please, Not Another Coin Puzzle!

I’ve lost track of how many times I've seen — and solved — this simple coin puzzle! But let’s do it one more time — with a Bayesian Network…

Mar 20, 2026 · 2 min read · 6 claps #probability #puzzle #bayesian-networks

Please, Not Another Coin Puzzle!

PA Pascal Bercker

4 Pizzas for 7 Friends — Who Will Get Their Pizza? A Combinatorics Problem

Another probability problem from Barber’s book, Bayesian Reasoning and Machine Learning (draft 2025). We will model this as a kind of…

Mar 18, 2026 · 5 min read · 1 claps #probability #combinatorics #constraints-programming

4 Pizzas for 7 Friends — Who Will Get Their Pizza? A Combinatorics Problem

PA Pascal Bercker

Constructing a Bayesian Belief Network — Who Wins This Game?

This exercise comes from a very recent (2025) online textbook on Bayesian Reasoning and Machine Learning by David Barber.

Mar 17, 2026 · 4 min read · 7 claps #probability #bayesian-networks #netica

Constructing a Bayesian Belief Network — Who Wins This Game?

PA Pascal Bercker

Bayesian Reasoning — Soft XOR & Bayesian Networks

I’m perusing this book on Bayesian Reasoning and Machine Learning, freely available online as part of a course on Probabilistic Graphical…

Mar 10, 2026 · 3 min read · 3 claps #probability #xor #bayesian-networks

Bayesian Reasoning — Soft XOR & Bayesian Networks

SCI

PA Pascal Bercker

Punnett Squares, Flowers and Bayesian Networks

Here’s a simple science puzzle from Brilliant.org that I am working on.

Mar 08, 2026 · 5 min read · 4 claps #probability #bayesian-networks #mendelian-genetics

Punnett Squares, Flowers and Bayesian Networks

SCI

PA Pascal Bercker

Strategic Arithmetic — with a Bayesian Network

Some simple numerical lessons on Brilliant.org (from 2022 but removed about a year ago) will allow us to test our numerical reasoning…

Oct 24, 2025 · 3 min read · 2 claps #numerical-reasoning #bayesian-networks #mathematics-education

Strategic Arithmetic — with a Bayesian Network

SCI AI

PA Pankaj Chejara, PhD · Dev Genius

Conditional Independence Made Simple

Conditional independence is a crucial building block of probabilistic graphical models (e.g., Bayesian networks). Having a solid…

Aug 23, 2025 · 3 min read · 6 claps #conditional-independence #bayesian-inference #bayesian-networks

Conditional Independence Made Simple

(Conditional) independent in Bayesian Network

1. Bayesian Network

Dec 02, 2024 · 5 min read · 0 claps #bayesian-networks #independence #conditional-independence

(Conditional) independent in Bayesian Network

AI

Understand d-separation

D-separation is a critical idea in Bayesian Networks. The problem it intends to tackle is: given a causal graph G, is a set X of variables…

Feb 05, 2021 · 4 min read · 42 claps #d-separation #bayesian-networks #bnlearn

Understand d-separation

KA Karim Pichara

Understanding Bayesian Networks

Here I give a brief introduction to Bayesian Networks (BN). The main idea of this article is to motivate the importance of finding…

Oct 04, 2019 · 10 min read · 36 claps #machine-learning #bayesian-networks #conditional-independence

Understanding Bayesian Networks